Short

Updated

XAO. Has all ords run its course?

I have sold off all capital and moved to BBOZ 2x Leveraged SHORT TMF. high risk but i live for the biscuit!!

massive amount of bearish div. across multiple time frames on RSI
large long term distribution pattern (megaphone or expanding / diverging wedge)
new ATH on index
fractalised bearish patterns.

parabolic year to date, floundering and failing housing market, unemployment on the up.
Government ran projects at massive high levels (search Keynesian economy vs Simple economy), companies buying back shares across the board (this is my opinion is bad because it shows a lack of sentiment in short to mid term growth ie money not reinvested in staffing, equipment and growth but funneled back to company execs) inverted yield curve over seas, tension between CHINA and USA (trade war) (ref. hang seng HSI and view Australia's economic dependence on China's growth) well over extended period between recessions locally and a historically bullish, parabolic and over bought real estate market has caused Australia to fuel a service and construction boom leaving alot of people with out jobs if things go bad. No jobs + over extended and over inflated property market = mass forced sell offs... The bad times have just began. (IMO)

these are a few of my reasons to be mid term hyper bearish

do what you want
DEFINITELY DO NOT TAKE MY WORD AS GOSPEL ON THIS ONE DYOR!!!

good luck
stay safe
squirrel funds
and DYOR

oh btw

DYOR
not financial advisor, hard core day trader, chart analyst and punter!

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shit sorry to anyone trying to make sense of those lines, i realised i posted my draft chart and not my final. i will up date in comments if you stay tuned

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WEEKLY DIV AND DIST. PATTERN

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DAILY DIV.

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chart pattern and candle structure local top intraday - 4 hr

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Daily Local Top Candle Structure

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looks like 3 black crows on the daily :S

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BIG BAD SHOOTING STAR on the WEEKLY

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4HR looking very healthy (if you're bear)

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Bullish result from WBC (Westpac Banking Corporation) however I didn't see them being hit hard anyway. Using HEM instead of actual data doesn't seem to far left of field.

Not enough to stop the stem of blood that is about to violently gush from local Securities and property though it is enough to trap some more fools...

afr.com/companies/financial-services/asic-loses-landmark-case-against-westpac-20190813-p52ggy

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I'm watching this here. Price action today closed out at small yellow line (last candle doesn't always load. Could be forming a bit of a bullish channel with a short term continuation to the bull side.
Not too sure, in any case I'm more interested in what is happening fundamentally. Technical analysis is good but in my opinion it is good for pin pointing entries and exits and not in the same league as fundamentals in regards to market sentiment.

RBA announced the other day that they were prepared to drop out interest rates to 0% if needed among other ludicrous actions in an attempt to stabilise the Australian Economy. I don't see any of this making much of a difference really. At this point a finishing of the trade dispute between USA and CHINA would create mid term bullish activity (extremely bullish activity) a hyper parabolic run would ensue in my opinion. stay informed on the goings on in our economy but mainly stay up to date with the CHINA and USA currency and trade war.

In the longer term the problems are all still present. If this happened I would still be SHORT long term but i would probably stop my position and ride BULLISH waves to a new much higher SHORT entry.
I would be watching a few tickers in this event. will update. I am also heavy in QAU (Gold ETF) so I would be reconsidering a mid term pullback into gold channel in that scenario.

Anywho at this point it is all just thoughts.

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looks like we are active on the BEAR FLAG *see above*
this trade is just heating up looking for a fall and then a nice BULL TRAP and then a complete collapse.

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Bullish Div. across all time frames from D - 1 HR possibly a bullish push back here.

No one said it wouldn't be a wild ride...

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Maybe something like this.

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Had mylines wrong, let's see if we smash out of this decending wedge today..if we do a push back to 666x will be our first target.

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Just some ideas, things to watch.

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sitting watching waiting...

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Assuming that we have come out of a massive distribution, and that our "correction" itself is over then it is plausible we are beginning Bearish Elliott Wave impulses

a recession always contains a strong 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 structure...

This is what I am forecasting

if we continue trending bearish i will be able to start to deconstruct waves and give daily / weekly predictions

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price just shy of daily target, should have completion tomorrow, Bearish Div. starting to sneak in on time frames up to 1D. I would expect tomorrow bullish with a late after noon bear push down closing candle on .382 fib retracement level. we will see.
still watching cont. cypher pattern.

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not what I expected, I assume a strong morning, instead a violent sell off first thing and a inactive session post.
Good for our BBOZ positions!

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Bearish butterfly formed on All ords.

this could be the end of the bullish push back I predicted, I may consider adding to my BBOZ position at the reversals zones indicated below!

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at this stage it is looking very probable for a BEARISH BUTTERFLY as long as we dont break up on upper line in reversal zone!! ^^

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no break through, looking good for the short. I would be waiting for a bearish signal to enter ie pull back down out of reversal zone
Also some bearish div. formed on the 1HR RSI as shown.

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over to the Stoch RSI now, we can see Overbought and bearish divergence 1D

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Infact OB in all time frames 1D - 1 HR with varying levels of bearish div. I am confident this BEARISH BUTTERFLY will push us into a continuation spin

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nice cross - day structure forming.

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BEARISH BUTTERFLY FAIL!
all measurements okay, X-D fibonacci has blown out!
we are still safe on our exit but this pattern is debunked!

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might be time for another powerful push down

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