#Gold/EUR #XAUEUR - intermediate/long term analysis
Updated
Due to fundamental reasons (trade tariffs, sudden currency devaluation of the Yuan and stock market crash) impulse wave 5 of Gold has broken through the blue doted resistance trend-line and is near its ATH (Gold/EUR chart).
However, there are 3 other strong resistance lines:
- dashed violet resistance trend line (currently around €1360.-)
- horizontal ATH resistance line (~ €1387.-)
- bold violet resistance line (currently around €1424.-)
According 1D, 1W and 1M momentum indicators it looks like Gold is losing its bullish momentum, also RSI and MFI are very overbought on all time frames.
(also short-term H4 and 1D at the moment o writing)
Therefore, I think Gold will be too week to break through the dashed violet line (~ €1360).
Also on the USD chart Gold is fighting with a resistance trend line.
Therefore, I think a good short opportunity will arise soon (as soon as stocks go up again) ;-)
Furthermore, I have found a “Hanging Man” in the Gold/Silver ratio chart (@1W TF) which is a bearish reversal signal.
This means that Gold is losing strength compared silver regardless of FIAT currency manipulations and currency wars.
This is a long-term signal and a perfect swing trade opportunity to exchange Gold into Silver. But unfortunately silver is taxed whereas Gold is tax-free in my country.
Keep in mind that technical analysis cannot predict exogenous risks.
This means when for some fundamental reasons there is a fire sale in stocks markets, then Gold and Silver will rally because these are safe-heaven assets with negative-Beta correlation!
Also when Gold is losing strength compared to Silver it can still go higher in terms of FIAT valuation / fake currency.
(in a very bullish scenario Gold may hit Fib extension 0.272 which is at €1446! )
I will start to buy PHYSICAL Gold again when it comes near the accumulation zone between €1213 - €1115 in the end of this year or during 2020.
In an economic collapse wealth cannot be stored on fake assets. Keep in mind that China and Russia has quadrupled their Gold reserves since 2009!
Be patient and do not FOMO. Emotions are a money killer!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
However, there are 3 other strong resistance lines:
- dashed violet resistance trend line (currently around €1360.-)
- horizontal ATH resistance line (~ €1387.-)
- bold violet resistance line (currently around €1424.-)
According 1D, 1W and 1M momentum indicators it looks like Gold is losing its bullish momentum, also RSI and MFI are very overbought on all time frames.
(also short-term H4 and 1D at the moment o writing)
Therefore, I think Gold will be too week to break through the dashed violet line (~ €1360).
Also on the USD chart Gold is fighting with a resistance trend line.
Therefore, I think a good short opportunity will arise soon (as soon as stocks go up again) ;-)
Furthermore, I have found a “Hanging Man” in the Gold/Silver ratio chart (@1W TF) which is a bearish reversal signal.
This means that Gold is losing strength compared silver regardless of FIAT currency manipulations and currency wars.
This is a long-term signal and a perfect swing trade opportunity to exchange Gold into Silver. But unfortunately silver is taxed whereas Gold is tax-free in my country.
Keep in mind that technical analysis cannot predict exogenous risks.
This means when for some fundamental reasons there is a fire sale in stocks markets, then Gold and Silver will rally because these are safe-heaven assets with negative-Beta correlation!
Also when Gold is losing strength compared to Silver it can still go higher in terms of FIAT valuation / fake currency.
(in a very bullish scenario Gold may hit Fib extension 0.272 which is at €1446! )
I will start to buy PHYSICAL Gold again when it comes near the accumulation zone between €1213 - €1115 in the end of this year or during 2020.
In an economic collapse wealth cannot be stored on fake assets. Keep in mind that China and Russia has quadrupled their Gold reserves since 2009!
Be patient and do not FOMO. Emotions are a money killer!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
Note
1W candle-stick chart analysis: - Stochastics RSI: overbought for 70 days now!-> bearish cross will come soon...
- RSI: overbought 91 (in 2011 we reached 80 at ATH and then the price plunged!)
- MFI: extremely overbought 100 (in 2011 we reached 84 at ATH and then the price plunged!)
- WT_LB: overbought @82 (in 2011 we reached 83 at ATH and then the price plunged!)
- LT Plulse Momentum Dissipation
- LT Axel X Signal (LT Acceleration Extreme Signal) -> rare sell signal!
Note
1D candle-stick chart analysis: - Stochastics RSI: loosing bullish momentum
- RSI: overbought 71 (in 2012 we reached 69 at ATH)
- MFI: overbought 52 (in 2011 we reached 86 at ATH)
- WT_LB: overbought 66 (in 2011 we reached 76 at ATH and then the price plunged!)
- bearish div on volume!
- MACD divergence!
Note
On August 26th gold has broken it´s ATH on the EUR chart! But on the USD-chart gold is approaching Fib resistance level .618 which is at $1587.
I don´t think that we have enough momentum left to break through $1587 (~ €1444) on the USD-chart without a significant pullback. A healty correction should come soon which will be a good short opportunity ;-)
Note
Last week closed with a shooting star candle on the weekly TF! Pullback is confirmed as soon as the support around $1489 / €1348 breaks.
When this support breaks a I´ll open leveraged short position!
Note
Dec 13th 2019: Pullback to €1307.- (temporary end of correction on 1W TF)Note
Dec 23th: Bullish CROSS on Wave Trend oscillator @ 1W TF (strong intermediate buy signal)! (note: oscillators on monthly time frame still bearish)
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