📉 XAUUSD Market Outlook – Potential Pullback Ahead
Date: May 21, 2025
Analyst: NextElliott
Instrument: XAUUSD (Gold)
Current Price: $3,307
Outlook: Short-Term Bearish Bias
Trade Horizon: 1–4 Days
Timeframes Observed: 4H / Daily
🔍 Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) recently extended its rally, reaching a high near $3,320 after a strong bullish leg that began earlier this month. However, current price action indicates signs of momentum exhaustion near this region—aligning with a confluence of technical resistance levels and psychological barriers.
As Gold consolidates below recent highs, we anticipate a corrective pullback toward the $3,240 area, offering potential for short-term bearish trades or long-term re-entry opportunities.
📐 Key Technical Levels
🔻 Resistance Zone (Recently Tested)
$3,305 – $3,320:
Fib extension from prior swing
Previous intraday rejection levels
Overbought RSI on 4H
🔻 Expected Support / Target Zone
$3,240 – $3,220:
Previous breakout zone
38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally
20EMA & volume shelf on 4H
🔄 Trend & Structure Analysis
Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but current price is extended short-term.
Price appears to be forming a corrective Wave 4 or descending channel, likely targeting $3,240–$3,220 before another leg up.
A confirmed break below $3,290 could act as a trigger for downside momentum.
📊 Momentum & Volume
RSI Divergence observed on 4H and Daily, signaling weakening buying pressure.
Volume tapering on recent highs suggests distribution rather than accumulation.
MACD histogram beginning to roll over on 4H—early signal of trend shift.
🧭 Trade Scenario Outlook
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Active Bias)
Trigger: Break and 1H/4H close below $3,290
Target Zones:
TP1: $3,260
TP2: $3,240
TP3: $3,220
Stop Loss (Short Entries): Above $3,320
Invalidation: 4H close above $3,330 (would suggest continuation)
🛠️ Strategic Notes & Risk Management
Ideal for short-term traders looking to capitalize on retracement before trend resumes.
Long-term bulls may monitor $3,240–$3,220 for potential re-entry after consolidation.
Use volatility-adjusted stop losses and consider scaling out partial profits on approach to support levels.
📌 Conclusion
With Gold trading near its short-term peak at $3,320, a pullback toward $3,240 is becoming increasingly probable as overextended conditions begin to unwind. This retracement is expected to be corrective, not reversal-based, within the broader uptrend. Traders should watch for bearish confirmations below $3,290 and act accordingly, while positioning for renewed bullish opportunities near major support.
Date: May 21, 2025
Analyst: NextElliott
Instrument: XAUUSD (Gold)
Current Price: $3,307
Outlook: Short-Term Bearish Bias
Trade Horizon: 1–4 Days
Timeframes Observed: 4H / Daily
🔍 Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) recently extended its rally, reaching a high near $3,320 after a strong bullish leg that began earlier this month. However, current price action indicates signs of momentum exhaustion near this region—aligning with a confluence of technical resistance levels and psychological barriers.
As Gold consolidates below recent highs, we anticipate a corrective pullback toward the $3,240 area, offering potential for short-term bearish trades or long-term re-entry opportunities.
📐 Key Technical Levels
🔻 Resistance Zone (Recently Tested)
$3,305 – $3,320:
Fib extension from prior swing
Previous intraday rejection levels
Overbought RSI on 4H
🔻 Expected Support / Target Zone
$3,240 – $3,220:
Previous breakout zone
38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally
20EMA & volume shelf on 4H
🔄 Trend & Structure Analysis
Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but current price is extended short-term.
Price appears to be forming a corrective Wave 4 or descending channel, likely targeting $3,240–$3,220 before another leg up.
A confirmed break below $3,290 could act as a trigger for downside momentum.
📊 Momentum & Volume
RSI Divergence observed on 4H and Daily, signaling weakening buying pressure.
Volume tapering on recent highs suggests distribution rather than accumulation.
MACD histogram beginning to roll over on 4H—early signal of trend shift.
🧭 Trade Scenario Outlook
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Active Bias)
Trigger: Break and 1H/4H close below $3,290
Target Zones:
TP1: $3,260
TP2: $3,240
TP3: $3,220
Stop Loss (Short Entries): Above $3,320
Invalidation: 4H close above $3,330 (would suggest continuation)
🛠️ Strategic Notes & Risk Management
Ideal for short-term traders looking to capitalize on retracement before trend resumes.
Long-term bulls may monitor $3,240–$3,220 for potential re-entry after consolidation.
Use volatility-adjusted stop losses and consider scaling out partial profits on approach to support levels.
📌 Conclusion
With Gold trading near its short-term peak at $3,320, a pullback toward $3,240 is becoming increasingly probable as overextended conditions begin to unwind. This retracement is expected to be corrective, not reversal-based, within the broader uptrend. Traders should watch for bearish confirmations below $3,290 and act accordingly, while positioning for renewed bullish opportunities near major support.
Note
Gold price may rise up to 3333 for stop hunt.. Adjust your stop loss accordingly. If fail to stay above 3333, its bearish sign. Trade safely. Happy trading !!Note
I'm expecting Gold price will not go up above 3375.. May go near 3370 but will not cross 3375 and final bottom target 3242.. If Gold price again goes up to 3325 area, you can add another sell and can set stop for that trade @ 3337 & Target set to 3242.. You can take a little risk there.. Present price 3295.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.