News analysis
Safe-haven demand support: The potential tariff policy of the Trump administration has caused market concerns, which may push up inflation and intensify trade frictions, and enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold. De-dollarization trend: Geopolitical uncertainty has driven central banks of various countries to continue to buy gold, which is beneficial to gold demand in the long run. Dollar trend: If the dollar weakens, gold may benefit further.
Technical analysis
Daily level:
High-level shock, short-term moving average hooks down, showing a weak signal, but the support of the $3,000 mark is strong. After two recent dips to 3,000, it rebounded and formed the prototype of a "W bottom". If it breaks through the 3,035 watershed, it may test the historical high of 3,045-3,057; otherwise, it will maintain a range of 3,000-3,030. Yesterday, the upper shadow line was closed with an inverted hammer, suggesting pressure from above, but there is still a rebound demand after the retracement. 4-hour level: A small double bottom is formed near 3000. The rising trend of Lianyang stands on the short-term moving average, and the short-term trend is strong.
Pay attention to the breakthrough of the middle track. If it stabilizes, we will look at the pressure on the upper track (near 3035), and the key watershed below is 3013.
key price
Support levels: 3011-3013 (short-term long-short boundary), 3005-3000 (strong support).
Resistance level: 3030-3035 (3045-3057 after breakthrough), 3057 (historical high).
Operation suggestion
Short-term strategy:
Rebound short: light short when the 3030-3035 area is under pressure, stop loss above 3040, target 3015-3010.
Back to low and long: If it falls back to 3005-3010 and stabilizes, it can be long, stop loss below 3000, target 3025-3030.
Breakthrough follow-up:
If it breaks through 3035 effectively, follow the long position near 3025, and the target is 3045-3050.
If it falls below the 3000 mark, it may turn bearish, looking down at 2980-2970.
Risk warning:
Pay attention to US market data and geopolitical dynamics, and be alert to fluctuations caused by sudden news.
The current market is mainly volatile, and strict stop loss is required to avoid excessive unilateral expectations.
Summary
Gold is oscillating in the 3000-3035 range in the short term, and long and short positions are competing for the key watershed. The news is dominated by risk aversion and the trend of the US dollar. The technical side needs to pay attention to the breakthrough of 3000 support and 3035 resistance. It is recommended to operate flexibly and follow up with small cycle signals.
Trade active
On Thursday (March 27), the spot gold market continued its recent strong pattern, with prices rising rapidly to $3,055.63 in just one hour, just one step away from the historical high of $3,057.21 set on March 20. The current market is active, with both long and short sides engaged in a fierce game around key resistance levels. The dual drive of technical and fundamental factors has significantly amplified the volatility of gold prices.From the perspective of driving logic, risk aversion is still the dominant force. The Trump administration's latest remarks on auto tariffs continue to ferment, and policy uncertainty has led to rising market concerns about the outlook for the global economy, and funds have accelerated into the gold market to seek risk aversion. At the same time, institutional funds have provided solid support for prices through the continued inflow of gold ETFs. Coupled with the potential easing expectations of the Fed's policy path, the gold market is in a bullish window period of "time and place".
Policy uncertainty has boosted risk aversion buying. According to Refinitiv, Trump's recent auto tariff announcement triggered sharp market fluctuations. His remarks implied the possibility of further tariffs on the EU and Canada, causing confusion in the market's assessment of the details of the reciprocal tariffs to be implemented in early April. Although some countries or industries may be exempted, the ambiguity of the timing and scope of the policy implementation has significantly amplified the market's cautious sentiment. Historical experience shows that such policy vacuum periods are often accompanied by strong performance of safe-haven assets, and gold, as a traditional "safe haven", naturally becomes the first choice for funds.
(I) Core conditions for continued upward movement
If the market's risk aversion continues to heat up, coupled with the strong inflow of ETF funds, the gold price is expected to consolidate the foundation in the $3021 support area and hit the historical high of $3057 again. Once this resistance is broken, the upper target will directly point to the $3100 integer mark, and the technical form will form a strong structure of "higher highs", attracting more trend traders to enter the market and further opening up the upside space.
(II) Potential triggers for short-term adjustments
The current price is close to the historical high, and the pressure of profit-taking by some longs is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Fed sends a hawkish signal, it may become a trigger for a pullback. The key support area is between $3,000 and $2,999, which is not only the previous low point, but also the psychological defense line of the market. If the price loses this area, it may trigger a deeper technical adjustment and test the support level of $2,950 downward.
(III) Comprehensive judgment
The current gold market is in a critical stage of "trend continuation but need to be vigilant against pullbacks". The fundamental risk aversion demand and policy easing expectations support the price bottom, while the key technical position competition will determine the short-term direction. Investors need to focus on the following signals:
The effectiveness of the $3,023 support: This area is the long defense line, and the trend will continue if it stabilizes.
Trade closed: target reached
On Thursday (March 27) in North American time, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, giving up the upward momentum brought by Trump's tariff remarks on Wednesday night. It is currently hovering around 104.30. The market focus has shifted to the PCE data to be released tomorrow; the fourth quarter GDP data shows that the US economy remains resilient. Since hitting the low of 103.19, the US dollar index has formed a clear upward trend, but it has recently climbed to the 104.70 mark and encountered resistance and fell back, facing a critical moment of direction selection in the short term.
Gold daily line rose sharply, the price returned to above the moving average, and the bulls returned again. Next, the operation will follow the trend and go long at a low position and gradually become bullish. At the 4-hour level, yesterday's market stabilized and rebounded at the 3012 line. Today's market stood on the middle track and ran a strong rebound. The current price has reached the highest level of 3059. The Bollinger Bands opened upward and diverged, MACD golden cross, and the red kinetic energy column continued to increase in volume, indicating that the current price is in a strong position, and the short-term continues to rely on ma5 and ma10 support to be bullish. The 1-hour moving average is in a bullish arrangement. Gold hit a high and then fell back in the US market, confirming that the top and bottom conversion of 3035 continued to break the high. The current bulls are in a dominant position, and the short-term retracement continues to be long. Pay attention to the support at 3030-3035 below, and pay attention to the resistance near 3062-3080 above.
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💥Free gold trading signals: t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.