gold continues to retest support / scenario and strategy
XAUUSD Current Situation:
- Gold prices are trading around the 2323.360 level
- The price is facing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (2326.500) and is currently below a descending trend line, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Key Levels to watch
- Resistance:
- 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
- 2329.000 (50.0% Fibonacci level)
- 2331.500 (61.8% Fibonacci level)
- 2334.000 (strong resistance zone)
- Support:
- 2313.475 (recent low and significant support zone)
Most Likely Scenario
Given the current market conditions and technical setup, the most likely scenario is continued bearish pressure with a potential retest of the support zone around 2313.475. This scenario assumes that the price will struggle to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (2326.500) and the descending trend line.
Trading Strategy
Short Position (Most Likely Scenario)
Entry:
- Enter a short position if the price fails to break above 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and shows signs of rejection at this level.
- or, enter a short position if the price breaks below 2318.000, confirming continued bearish momentum.
Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss above the 2329.000 level to manage risk, ensuring it's above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take Profit:
- First target: Around 2313.475 (support zone).
- Second target: If the price breaks below 2313.475, look for further downside potential, targeting levels such as 2306.000.
Long Position (less likely Scenario)
Entry:
- Enter a long position if the price breaks and closes above 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and sustains above this level.
Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss below 2318.000 to manage risk.
Take Profit:
- First target: Around 2329.000 (50.0% Fibonacci level).
- Second target: Around 2331.500 (61.8% Fibonacci level) if bullish momentum continues.
Summary
- Most Likely Scenario: Continued bearish pressure with a potential retest of the support zone around 2313.475.
- Trading Strategy: Favor short positions with entries near 2326.500 and stops above 2329.000, targeting 2313.475 and lower levels. Consider long positions only if there is a clear break above 2326.500 with sustained momentum.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.