XAUUSD (Gold Spot / US Dollar) - 30-Minute Chart Deep Analysis
Setup Type: Double Bottom Pattern | Potential Bullish Reversal Setup
Market Overview:
Gold (XAUUSD) recently experienced a significant downward correction, falling from recent highs around the 3,540 area to a low near 3,245. Throughout this bearish move, sellers dominated price action. However, current market structure indicates weakening bearish momentum, highlighted by a double rejection at a major support zone.
This technical setup suggests a possible transition from bearish to bullish control if buyers manage to sustain momentum and break key resistance zones.
Pattern Formation: Double Bottom
The Double Bottom is a powerful reversal pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new uptrend. It consists of two distinct lows at a similar horizontal level, separated by a moderate peak (resistance).
Formation Details:
Bottom 1:
Formed around the 3,260 area.
Buyers entered aggressively, pushing price up toward the resistance.
Intervening Peak:
Price retraced and faced resistance around 3,367.
Sellers defended this level strongly, rejecting further upside initially.
Bottom 2:
Price again returned to the 3,260 support area but failed to make a new low.
The second bounce suggests that sellers are losing strength, and buyers are gradually accumulating positions.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Support Zone:
3,245 - 3,260 (Area of multiple rejections and demand absorption).
Immediate Resistance (Neckline):
3,367.564 (Previous high between the two bottoms).
Higher Target Resistance:
3,406.332 (Projected based on the measured move height of the Double Bottom).
Stop Loss (SL) Placement:
3,245.848 (Below the structural support to protect against false breakdowns).
Trade Execution Strategy:
Entry:
Ideal entry is upon clear bullish confirmation after the second bottom.
Preferably, wait for a breakout above minor resistance (~3,300-3,310) and a successful retest to validate bullish continuation.
Take Profit Strategy:
TP1 (Short-Term Target):
3,367.564 — a conservative target at the neckline resistance.
TP2 (Extended Target):
3,406.332 — based on the projected move from the bottom to neckline, added to the breakout point.
Stop Loss Placement:
Below the second bottom (~3,245.848), giving enough room for normal price volatility while maintaining favorable risk-reward.
Risk-Reward Analysis:
Risk: Limited to a clear technical invalidation below the major support.
Reward: Significant upside potential if the pattern plays out correctly, offering a 2.5:1 or better reward-to-risk ratio.
Position Sizing: Conservative to moderate risk allocation advised until the neckline breakout is confirmed.
Projected Price Action Path:
Expect price to initially rally towards 3,300–3,310.
Minor pullback or consolidation phase around the former resistance turned support.
Resumption of the bullish move toward TP1 (3,367).
If momentum continues, further extension to TP2 (3,406).
Fundamental Considerations:
While this setup is based purely on technicals, traders should also be aware of fundamental catalysts that might impact XAUUSD, such as:
U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Inflation data (CPI, PCE reports).
Geopolitical tensions (safe-haven demand).
USD strength/weakness and bond yields.
Fundamental news aligning with the technical pattern will significantly increase the probability of success.
Summary and Final Notes:
The observed Double Bottom on XAUUSD's 30-minute chart is a textbook bullish reversal pattern, especially after a prolonged downtrend.
A successful confirmation of this setup offers a strategic long opportunity with well-defined risk parameters.
Patience is required to wait for the breakout of the neckline resistance and a potential retest before heavy position sizing.
Always monitor price action closely and adjust the plan if macro events or abnormal volatility interfere.
Setup Type: Double Bottom Pattern | Potential Bullish Reversal Setup
Market Overview:
Gold (XAUUSD) recently experienced a significant downward correction, falling from recent highs around the 3,540 area to a low near 3,245. Throughout this bearish move, sellers dominated price action. However, current market structure indicates weakening bearish momentum, highlighted by a double rejection at a major support zone.
This technical setup suggests a possible transition from bearish to bullish control if buyers manage to sustain momentum and break key resistance zones.
Pattern Formation: Double Bottom
The Double Bottom is a powerful reversal pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new uptrend. It consists of two distinct lows at a similar horizontal level, separated by a moderate peak (resistance).
Formation Details:
Bottom 1:
Formed around the 3,260 area.
Buyers entered aggressively, pushing price up toward the resistance.
Intervening Peak:
Price retraced and faced resistance around 3,367.
Sellers defended this level strongly, rejecting further upside initially.
Bottom 2:
Price again returned to the 3,260 support area but failed to make a new low.
The second bounce suggests that sellers are losing strength, and buyers are gradually accumulating positions.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Support Zone:
3,245 - 3,260 (Area of multiple rejections and demand absorption).
Immediate Resistance (Neckline):
3,367.564 (Previous high between the two bottoms).
Higher Target Resistance:
3,406.332 (Projected based on the measured move height of the Double Bottom).
Stop Loss (SL) Placement:
3,245.848 (Below the structural support to protect against false breakdowns).
Trade Execution Strategy:
Entry:
Ideal entry is upon clear bullish confirmation after the second bottom.
Preferably, wait for a breakout above minor resistance (~3,300-3,310) and a successful retest to validate bullish continuation.
Take Profit Strategy:
TP1 (Short-Term Target):
3,367.564 — a conservative target at the neckline resistance.
TP2 (Extended Target):
3,406.332 — based on the projected move from the bottom to neckline, added to the breakout point.
Stop Loss Placement:
Below the second bottom (~3,245.848), giving enough room for normal price volatility while maintaining favorable risk-reward.
Risk-Reward Analysis:
Risk: Limited to a clear technical invalidation below the major support.
Reward: Significant upside potential if the pattern plays out correctly, offering a 2.5:1 or better reward-to-risk ratio.
Position Sizing: Conservative to moderate risk allocation advised until the neckline breakout is confirmed.
Projected Price Action Path:
Expect price to initially rally towards 3,300–3,310.
Minor pullback or consolidation phase around the former resistance turned support.
Resumption of the bullish move toward TP1 (3,367).
If momentum continues, further extension to TP2 (3,406).
Fundamental Considerations:
While this setup is based purely on technicals, traders should also be aware of fundamental catalysts that might impact XAUUSD, such as:
U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Inflation data (CPI, PCE reports).
Geopolitical tensions (safe-haven demand).
USD strength/weakness and bond yields.
Fundamental news aligning with the technical pattern will significantly increase the probability of success.
Summary and Final Notes:
The observed Double Bottom on XAUUSD's 30-minute chart is a textbook bullish reversal pattern, especially after a prolonged downtrend.
A successful confirmation of this setup offers a strategic long opportunity with well-defined risk parameters.
Patience is required to wait for the breakout of the neckline resistance and a potential retest before heavy position sizing.
Always monitor price action closely and adjust the plan if macro events or abnormal volatility interfere.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.