GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Fed rate meeting

is recovering ahead of Fed rates and Powell's speech. The price is consolidating as traders are not ready for premature action. What could happen?

Gold is holding near $2,770 in Asian trading in anticipation of Wednesday's Fed decision. Investors are cautious as the regulator may pause rate cuts and give hints on future policy. Markets expect two 25bp cuts this year, but Powell's rhetoric will determine the way forward.
Factors supporting gold: dollar correction, risk stabilization and holiday season in Asia. However, Trump's trade policy may increase inflation, forcing the Fed to keep high rates longer, which is negative for gold.
But! Further movement depends solely on Powell's rhetoric.

Resistance levels: 2765, 2771
Support levels: 2759, 2745

Technically, after breaking the bullish structure and updating the lows, the price is recovering in search of resistance and liquidity to continue the probable decline. But it depends on economic data. Possible false break of 2771 resistance before further decline.

Regards R. Linda!

Note

The current rate remains unchanged (4.50%), which could mean that the Fed is keeping a cautious policy for now. Now let's break down the most likely scenario:

- The decision to leave the rate unchanged is already expected by the market, so the main focus will be on the Fed statement and Powell's speech.
- If Powell hints at a prolonged period of high rates, the dollar will strengthen, gold will fall, and the stock market will correct.
- If the Fed hints at imminent rate cuts, the dollar will weaken, gold and the stock market will rise.

How might gold (XAU/USD) react?
- Tough Fed policy → gold will fall as high rate makes it less attractive.
- Soft Fed policy → gold will rise as low rates increase demand for safe assets.

BUT! There is another problem, how the market will interpret the risks. If global risks start to rise, there could be a return of buying interest in gold.

Note

Everyone's favorite and understandable reversal pattern is being formed

As long as the support (base of the pattern) 2735 is not broken, there can be no talk about a global reversal).
2735 may hold a strong decline.

This is just a note to understand the situation ;)

Trade active

The price, as expected, went down after breaking key support. The Fed's stance is negative for gold, but the question of interpreting further risks remains...

RLinda

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