Gold Spot / U.S. DollarUpdated Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: Spot gold maintained a mild decline in the European market on Thursday (January 23). Gold prices hit a three-month high of $2,763/oz on Wednesday, as attention turned to U.S. fundamentals, including U.S. initial jobless claims data. Gold traders are preparing for a series of top U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Thursday, which will provide new clues to the Fed's interest rate cut prospects this year. Friday's preliminary reading of the S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will provide insight into the state of the economy. Weak U.S. economic data will further increase expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The mild inflation report for December released last week rekindled expectations of two rate cuts this year. It is worth noting that U.S. President Trump's tariff negotiations will continue to drive risk sentiment, the U.S. dollar and gold prices, while the influence of U.S. data may rank second. As investors await further instructions from the new Trump administration on potential tax cuts and trade policies. Gold prices remain near their highest levels since October as investors consider the impact President Trump's latest tariff threats on China and the European Union could have on the global economy.
Gold technical analysis: Gold did not fluctuate much overall yesterday because of strong resistance near 2763 above. It stabilized near 2741 in early Asian trading, and fell back after reaching a high of 2763. The daily line finally closed with a long shadow positive line. Gold's recent breakthrough and rise is nothing more than the result of tariff hedging. Since January 17, we have seen that ETFs have also increased their holdings of 10 tons of gold, implying that they are preventing risk hedging. However, after Tuesday, they reduced their holdings by 11 tons for two consecutive days, indicating that the main force has gradually cashed in after the rise. The exit also shows that the space above 2765 is limited in the later period. In the early stage, 2790 fell to the 2530 area in two weeks, indicating that the pressure above is obvious. If it touches this area again for the second time, it will not directly break through. There will be more adjustments to fall at any time. No need If 200 US dollars falls, a half discount means an adjustment of 100 US dollars, and it cannot catch up with 2765. Therefore, today's breakthrough for the third day is also the key to the long and short market changes. The maximum range of 30 US dollars above 2765 may not be able to go up at all, but If it falls, it is easy to fall above 100 US dollars, so this area is bullish and not chasing long. Compared with historical highs, the amplitude and intensity of shocks increase. As long as you don't chase the rise and kill the fall, you can basically make a profit by controlling your position and shorting. .
Today, gold is adjusted to be bearish, and the market may fall back at any time. The current pressure above is maintained at the 2760 line. This position is also the position that has been under pressure for a long time after breaking through in the early Asian morning. Therefore, we can continue to short around 2760 during the day. We cannot rebound too high. In the short term, it is likely to consume our patience. , then gold will be shorted directly at 2755-58 during the day, with the target near 2745-2735.
Overall, our professional gold analyst team recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The upper short-term focus is on the 2760-2765 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2730-2725 support line.
Trade active
The gold market maintained sideways consolidation after the Asian opening yesterday, and then experienced a rapid retracement during the European session. The trend continued during the US session, falling to around 2735 at one point, but then quickly rebounded, continuing to demonstrate its previous strong upward pattern. By this morning in Asia, gold prices rose again, reaching a high of around 2778, and the current bullish force is still strong. The moving average system presents a bullish arrangement, indicating that gold prices are expected to rise further and even reach a record high.
Gold prices fell in the Asian session on Thursday and continued in the European session. They rebounded before the US session to attract bulls, and then fell rapidly from 2750 to around US$2735, completing this short-term adjustment and becoming cautious in the continuous rising market. Although the bulls still show the resilience of the reversal after the correction, everyone still needs to remain calm in the face of the pressure of the historical high. At present, we are trying to arrange transactions and adopt a short-term strategy. Pay attention to the strong resistance of 2785 on the top and the strong support of 2752 on the bottom. Our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends high-altitude operation as the main and low-long operation as the auxiliary. Operate within the range.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to go short when the price rebounds to 2785, stop loss at 2795, and target at 2770-2765.
Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to go long when the price falls back to 2760, stop loss at 2750, and target at 2773-2780.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Analysis of gold news: In the U.S. market on Friday (January 24), spot gold surged higher but encountered resistance and fell back. Spot gold bottomed out and rebounded on Thursday, falling to $2,735.83/ounce earlier in the session, but the change in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States performed worse than market expectations, and the dollar weakened after U.S. President Trump called for lower interest rates. Gold prices recovered all losses and closed at $2,754.59/ounce. Market attention remains focused on the broad impact of Trump's policies. Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Part of the reason is the dollar. The dollar rose early on Thursday and then was sold off, so it pushed gold off its lows. Thursday's trend is just a recognition of the direction of the White House. I think some of the volatility is due to this expectation." In his speech at the World Economic Forum, Trump emphasized his commitment to reverse inflation and announced that he hopes to cut interest rates immediately. He also urged other countries to take similar measures to address global economic challenges. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders believe that there is a 99.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January 28-29 meeting. The uncertainty of Trump's future policies has prompted market participants to flock to safe-haven assets such as gold to hedge against volatility. Investors need to pay attention to Trump's dynamic news and changes in market sentiment. This trading day also needs to pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the January PMI data of European and American countries.
Gold technical analysis: The trend of gold prices is in line with our expectations. It has fallen back and risen many times during the period, and it has been emphasized many times recently that the 2790 line is the ultimate goal, and it is getting closer and closer! Gold first stepped back and then rose, closing higher at the end of the day. It stepped back to the 2736 line on the middle track of the 4-hour chart and stabilized and then rose and closed at a high level. The long channel remains unchanged, and the trend of rising while consolidating and correcting. The daily line is still strong and the strong consolidation correction replaced the retracement correction, closing at a high level in late trading. There is a high probability of breaking the high momentum the next day. Gold prices also opened up without hesitation in the Asian morning session. If it continues to break through the high of 2763 today, today's high will go directly to 2790! During this period, we will continue to maintain the idea of falling back and going long!
Gold is running in the 4-hour rising channel, which is also a step-up rising channel. Yesterday, it stepped back close to the critical point of the middle track. It has been emphasized before that in a unilateral market, the middle track is a strong and weak dividing point. Keep the middle track and look long. Yesterday, it perfectly stepped back to the middle track, which is equivalent to a perfect opportunity to enter the long position. The strong market is afraid of not giving the opportunity to enter the market. As long as there is a gold step-back, it is an opportunity to go long. The defensive position can be moved up to 2736. Traders who do not have any trading orders also choose to step back to go long at a low position. Because the gold price has also adjusted in the process of yesterday's downward exploration, and this wave will also be a new wave of rising waves, gold will inevitably rise and break through the previous high of 2763 and move towards a higher point! On the whole, our professional gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation strategy for gold should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2793-2798 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2765-2760 support line.
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