XAUUSD MONTHLY OUTLOOK โ€” MAY 2025

185
๐Ÿ•ฐ๏ธ Timeframe: Monthly
๐Ÿ“ Current Price: 3204
๐Ÿ“ˆ Bias: Cautious Bullish-to-Neutral
๐Ÿ“ Trend: Long-term bullish | Near-term exhaustion

๐Ÿ”Ž STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW
โœ… HTF Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed above 2075 (2020/2022 resistance)

โœ… Sustained higher highs + strong impulse candles since Oct 2023

โ›”๏ธ Price just wicked into Monthly FIB Extension Zone (1.618โ€“2.0) = 3440โ€“3500

โš ๏ธ Bearish wick formed near 3500, suggesting premium rejection

๐Ÿง  KEY TECHNICAL ZONES (Monthly)
Zone Type Price Range Notes
๐Ÿ”ผ Premium Supply 3440โ€“3500 Monthly FIB Extension zone + rejection wick + final extension of long-term bull leg
๐Ÿ”ผ Resistance 3222โ€“3242 Previous OB and last BOS area before wick spike โ€” possible retest point
โš ๏ธ Mid-Zone 3160โ€“3185 Equilibrium / liquidity trap area seen on H4/D1
๐ŸŸฉ Monthly Demand 2960โ€“3050 Large unmitigated zone + FVG + consolidation base before impulse
๐ŸŸฆ Discount Range 2800โ€“2950 Key reaccumulation blocks from 2023 rallies

๐Ÿ”ฎ MACRO + MARKET CONTEXT
๐Ÿ’ฌ Geopolitical Tension: Ongoing inflation concerns and Fed credibility under fire after CPI/UoM combo

๐Ÿ“‰ UoM Sentiment: Dropped below expectations = recessionary anxiety

๐Ÿ“Š Inflation Expectations: Came in hotter = market confused, no clean direction

๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ Powell speech + May FOMC aftermath = market lacks conviction, stuck in uncertainty

๐Ÿงญ STRATEGIC SCENARIOS
โœ… Bullish Continuation (if retracement holds above 3160โ€“3180)
Potential reentry toward 3240โ€“3250 and re-test upper wick zone >3440

Must see H4 CHoCH + volume confluence

โŒ Bearish Retracement (if lower timeframes lose 3160)
Deeper move likely toward 3050โ€“3080 = Monthly demand base

Below that = consolidation back to 2960

โš™๏ธ FIBONACCI EXTENSION
Applied from breakout leg Oct 2023 (Low ~1810 to High ~2222 โ†’ projected from pullback at ~1984)

Extension targets:

1.272 = โœ… Reached

1.618 = 3440 = tapped

2.0 = 3500 = wick rejection

We are now reacting inside a fully extended bullish range, which supports a monthly cool-off.

๐Ÿง  FINAL WORD
Gold hit the monthly moonshot. Now itโ€™s all about real structure and rotation:
๐Ÿ’ก Watch how price respects the 3160โ€“3180 range. Lose that โ€” and we dive back toward 3050โ€“3080.
Hold it โ€” and we reload for the final frontier above 3440.

Goldโ€™s Monthly Jetpack Ran Out of Fuel at 3500 ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ”ฅ โ€” Now Itโ€™s All About Gravity and Structure."
From FIB extensions to wick rejections, this is not the time to chase... itโ€™s the time to react.
Comment, follow, and stay sharp โ€” sniper mode never sleeps.
โ€” GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)

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