Is an End of Golds Recent Bull Trend Nigh?
Updated
Firstly - please excuse the quite busy/crowded chart here - usually my charts are a lot cleaner.
Anyway, as you can see from my last idea on Gold, we are quite possibly nearing the end of it's recent bullish run.
Momentum seems to be slowing down, we have reacted quite nicely from the 61% Fibonacci retracement and broken a reasonably long term trendline!
However, in my opinion, until we have breached and made a new low under the next blue dotted line beneath the current price action, we can not say it's bull trend is officially over.
If it makes a new low under this level (blue dotted line indicating the last low) then we have formed a lower low - the first indication of a bear trend.
I have plotted a short term Fibonacci on the chart as you can see. I really should have entered short where it hit the 38% retracement, as this was also a retest of the Trendline it just broke!
However I still believe we can drop down to it's first D1 extension, before we see a nice pullback up to $1225 area before we can enter short again. Once this level has been broken there isn't much in the way of support all the way down to $1200.
Also as you can see the current Fibonacci's D2 extension lines nicely up with $1200 too.
We will see how this plays out.
Currently Neutral, once the dotted line is breached - I'm short bias to $1200.
Anyway, as you can see from my last idea on Gold, we are quite possibly nearing the end of it's recent bullish run.
Momentum seems to be slowing down, we have reacted quite nicely from the 61% Fibonacci retracement and broken a reasonably long term trendline!
However, in my opinion, until we have breached and made a new low under the next blue dotted line beneath the current price action, we can not say it's bull trend is officially over.
If it makes a new low under this level (blue dotted line indicating the last low) then we have formed a lower low - the first indication of a bear trend.
I have plotted a short term Fibonacci on the chart as you can see. I really should have entered short where it hit the 38% retracement, as this was also a retest of the Trendline it just broke!
However I still believe we can drop down to it's first D1 extension, before we see a nice pullback up to $1225 area before we can enter short again. Once this level has been broken there isn't much in the way of support all the way down to $1200.
Also as you can see the current Fibonacci's D2 extension lines nicely up with $1200 too.
We will see how this plays out.
Currently Neutral, once the dotted line is breached - I'm short bias to $1200.
Note
As you can see, bears are really in control on Gold at the minute.We paused temporarily around the D1 Fibonacci extension; however we had very little in way of a pullback before smashing straight through it - giving us little opportunity to get back in short.
I am still watching Gold for entry short.
It has came very close to my prediction of $1200 - albeit quicker than I expected.
Right here however, if we call this as a temporary bottom around $1206~. We can draw a new Fibonacci on from it's last leg down so 1236ish to 1206ish we can see the 61% retracement lines up very nicely with the $1225.00 Resistance level.
So what I am watching for now, is a pullback from here to $1225.00 for a perfect entry for a short!
Of course, I am not saying this will definitely happen, I'm simply saying if it does happen, it's a nice entry short.
Note
Gold has really been falling off a cliff the past week or so.My prediction of $1200.00 has been achieved very quickly.
It showed very little in the way of a pullback, so unfortunately there was very little in the way of entry opportunties since the $1230's region.
The higher time frames look very bearish, but I am really anticipating a pullback soon, before a continuation to the downside.
Will post a new idea up shortly.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.