Market review: Break after inducing more and washing. During the Asian session, international gold weakened as expected. The gold price directly broke through the key support of 3260 and quickly broke through the secondary support of 3245. The daily line confirmed that it fell below the short-term moving average system, indicating that the shock pattern was broken and the space below was further opened.
Looking back at the previous trading day, gold rebounded strongly to above 3300 during the US session, but continued to fall after midnight, forming a typical "inducing more-killing" mode. This trend highlights the market's long-short game characteristics before major data.
Data market disturbance: ADP and PCE intensified volatility
The heavy data such as the US ADP employment data, GDP and core PCE price index released on Wednesday night caused violent market fluctuations. The technical side should have followed the logic of "weak European session and secondary short in US session", but after the data, gold rebounded and rose first and then turned around and dived, forming a long-short double kill situation. This type of market once again confirms the unpredictability of the data cycle - the immediate reaction of prices to data may deviate from the technical structure, and liquidity fluctuations will amplify trading risks. Investors are advised to wait and see in the data window and intervene when volatility converges.
Technical analysis: Downward space and pullback logic after the break
Key support and target position
After gold broke through 3260, it has reached the low of 3230. The strong support below the daily level is 3167
If it continues to fall below 3220 in the short term (especially in the 3195-3212 range), it is necessary to be alert to the oversold rebound momentum. Here, you can try to make technical corrections with a light position and low long bets.
Rebound short signal
If the price rebounds and corrects in the afternoon, 3252 will become a dynamic resistance level (support conversion pressure before the break). Here, short orders can be arranged under pressure, and the target is 3200-3210 area.
Note: If the price stands above 3260 before the US market, it is necessary to be alert to the exhaustion of downward momentum and short orders need to be exited in time.
Operation strategy and risk control points
Bear trend dominant: After the daily line breaks, the overall idea of shorting at highs is maintained, but chasing orders should be avoided.
Oversold rebound opportunity: If the price quickly drops to the 3195-3212 area, short-term longs can bet on a rebound of 5-8 US dollars, and strictly stop loss below 3180.
Risk warning: Market sentiment is sensitive before the non-agricultural data on Friday this week, and positions need to be compressed to 1/2 of the normal level to avoid holding positions overnight.
Conclusion: Beware of the market's "washing" behavior
The gold market is accustomed to the "rise before falling" washing method. The 3300 pullback before the breakout is a typical case. In trading, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "trend is king, position is emperor" to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations. In the current environment, it is more important to wait patiently for prices to enter the key range before taking action than to blindly chase the market.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.