Key support level for gold price to rise: 3340
Analysis of current gold price trend:
As shown in Figure 4h: The white channel clearly reflects the current upward trend of gold price.
Latest fluctuations:
On June 20, the gold price once fell to 3340.31 US dollars per ounce. Market sentiment is affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical situation.
Strong support level: around 3340
Core factors currently affecting the gold market:
(1) Fed policy and US dollar trend
The Fed's June interest rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged, sending a "hawkish" signal. The US dollar index rebounded to 98.8, suppressing gold prices.
The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled. If subsequent economic data (such as non-agricultural employment and CPI) perform strongly, interest rate cuts may be further delayed, and gold prices may be under pressure at 3375.
Strong resistance level: 3375
(2) Geopolitical risks
Middle East situation: The conflict between Israel and Iran once pushed up the gold price to $3444 (June 13), but the recent easing of the situation has led to a weakening of safe-haven demand.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: If the situation escalates or NATO intervenes, it may boost the safe-haven demand for gold again.
(3) Supply, demand and market sentiment
Supply side: Mineral gold growth is weak (the growth rate in the first half of 2025 is only 0.5%), recycled gold is "reluctant to sell" due to the high gold price, and global supply remains in a tight balance.
Demand side:
Investment demand: Gold ETF holdings increased (European and American institutions increased their holdings), but some funds turned to alternative assets such as silver.
3. Short-term and long-term outlook
(1) Short-term (next week)
International gold price: expected to fluctuate in the range of US$3,250-3,500
Key resistance level: US$3,400, support level: US$3,300
(2) Medium-term
Upward logic: Global central banks continue to buy gold (the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for seven consecutive months), the trend of de-dollarization and inflation expectations support gold prices.
Downside risks: If the Fed's stance turns to a tougher stance, geopolitical risks ease or gold recycling supply exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall back to US$3,250-3,300.
Short-term strategy:
Focus on a breakthrough of US$3,375-3,400. If it stabilizes, it may trigger further gains;
If it falls below US$3,350-3,340, it may fall to the support level of US$3,300.
Analysis of current gold price trend:
As shown in Figure 4h: The white channel clearly reflects the current upward trend of gold price.
Latest fluctuations:
On June 20, the gold price once fell to 3340.31 US dollars per ounce. Market sentiment is affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical situation.
Strong support level: around 3340
Core factors currently affecting the gold market:
(1) Fed policy and US dollar trend
The Fed's June interest rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged, sending a "hawkish" signal. The US dollar index rebounded to 98.8, suppressing gold prices.
The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled. If subsequent economic data (such as non-agricultural employment and CPI) perform strongly, interest rate cuts may be further delayed, and gold prices may be under pressure at 3375.
Strong resistance level: 3375
(2) Geopolitical risks
Middle East situation: The conflict between Israel and Iran once pushed up the gold price to $3444 (June 13), but the recent easing of the situation has led to a weakening of safe-haven demand.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: If the situation escalates or NATO intervenes, it may boost the safe-haven demand for gold again.
(3) Supply, demand and market sentiment
Supply side: Mineral gold growth is weak (the growth rate in the first half of 2025 is only 0.5%), recycled gold is "reluctant to sell" due to the high gold price, and global supply remains in a tight balance.
Demand side:
Investment demand: Gold ETF holdings increased (European and American institutions increased their holdings), but some funds turned to alternative assets such as silver.
3. Short-term and long-term outlook
(1) Short-term (next week)
International gold price: expected to fluctuate in the range of US$3,250-3,500
Key resistance level: US$3,400, support level: US$3,300
(2) Medium-term
Upward logic: Global central banks continue to buy gold (the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for seven consecutive months), the trend of de-dollarization and inflation expectations support gold prices.
Downside risks: If the Fed's stance turns to a tougher stance, geopolitical risks ease or gold recycling supply exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall back to US$3,250-3,300.
Short-term strategy:
Focus on a breakthrough of US$3,375-3,400. If it stabilizes, it may trigger further gains;
If it falls below US$3,350-3,340, it may fall to the support level of US$3,300.
Free Signals：
t.me/+Hy1szYIVKdkzNzM0
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t.me/+Hy1szYIVKdkzNzM0
Choice is more important than effort
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals：
t.me/+Hy1szYIVKdkzNzM0
Choice is more important than effort
t.me/+Hy1szYIVKdkzNzM0
Choice is more important than effort
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.