Short

Updated

GOLD - Unlocked

2 days ago we printed a very strong reversal candlestick : a key reversal pattern.

Yesterday we had a follow through with a red candle and today the selling accelerates as we broke below the 10 SMA.
The dip buyers are coming back again and again as they missed most of the move since 1700...
They are buying at the 10 SMA and now they are buying the backtest of the ascending triangle.
Normally these levels could work but this daily cycle is almost 50 days old so this drop is not going to stop until gold reaches the heavily oversold conditions.
This is not the time to buy the dip. This is the time to get out of the longs or short this market.

I have 2 levels where the selling exhausts :
1. The minimum where gold is going to drop is the 50% FIBO retracement of the previous rally.

This also the top of the multi month consolidation box's top:

The price target would be at 1765$ at that point.

2. The more realistic target is 200 SMA on the daily chart and the FIBO 61,8% retracement

plus the multi month consolidation box's bottom:

The price target would be at 1691$ at that point.

Also notice how the MACD and tSI is crossing over.
And we are also waiting for the RSI to print the oversold zigzag

The other question is the when.
My time tools are showing a bottom sometimes at the end of September.

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We are back into the ascending triangle and the dollar is not even bouncing.
More pain is coming for the late buyers.

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The dollar tagged the 10SMA and bouncing. I don’t suggest to buy xagusd or xauusd to play a bounce because that might not come.
If the dollar bounces xauusd will drop more tomorrow.

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If you want to want to cover your shorts a bit or if you have death wish to long gold than try the xaueur pair. You will have better chances.

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I wouldn’t pick a bottom here. The bounce buyers will be punished.

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The xauxag ratio bounced hard today. Tagged tge 10 SMA.

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I think silver’s drop will be steeper than gold. Even if gold slows down tomorrow silver can have a -8% day again if the xauxag rallies.

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“bounce buyers will be punished”

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...and here is the nightmare iof the late bulls. The failed breakout:

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The dip buyers will be washed out soon. The triangle broke down.
I’m expecting a 1913$ close so the daily will be a doji.

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Don’t think. Feel.

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Interesting setup is developing on the hourly chart.
Smartmoney had built a very similar ascending triangle (green) we had a few days ago.
But this one (red) looks like a false breakout:

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Price is staying below the 10 SMA. And today it seems we will close below the 30 EMA.

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5 day RSI had started to print the oversold zigzag .we can’t get overbought on the daily chart. Or if we tag overbought it turns down quickly.

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We will crash the bollinger band’s lower line and the 50 SMA.

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Day 21. Weak daily cycle. 1909 Will break Before we have the DCL/ICL.

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I think we had the last bounce today and price tagged the trendline.
The next is a close below the 10 SMA and Then we break the 50 SMA.

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The last daily cycle of the IC usually tops before day 20. And the final decline is around 10-15 days long. So we will have a final bottom around the first or second week of october.

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Tagged the trendline and turned down. It can’t close above the 10 SMA.

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I say we are going to test the 2011 Sept high tomorrow at 1921 and the chance is high gold is going to close below it.
When we break down 1906 all hell breaks loose. It is going to be a very fast 10 day move down to 1690-1700.

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After this endless consolidation the precious metals market is starting to move down into the intermediate cycle low.

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We are below the 50 SMA. If we close here a bog down move is coming in a few days.

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100 SMA and then 200 SMA.
Seatbelts ON.

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The whole 1.5 months consolidation was about the break of the 2011 August high.
Bulls were anticipating a backtest of this level.

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We backtested this many many times without starting a rally to new highs. Yesterday this level was broken and today we backtested it again from the lower side. I'M expecting lower price in the coming days.

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The futures just tagged the previous DCL.

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The greedy banks will
run the stops below 1860 in the spot prices too.

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So 10-15$ down feom here is almost guaranteed.
There we might have some kind of bounce.

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But it’s far from over. Many are asking where I will buy gold.
I don’t know where. I know I will buy sometimes In october : Middle or end.

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If you are heavily leveraged and bet the farm on this short decline today is the time where you should take some profits on your position.
Price is bouncing from the 100 SMA.

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The bounce will last for 2-3 days only and we resume the downtrend . The 5 day RSI shoukdn’t go higher than 50 and will drop again to print the oversold zigzag.

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I will post a gold update today what I think is going to happen in the next two weeks and on the weekend a longer term analysis for 2021. I’m quite sure now that these printed billions will arrive to the precious metals market by the end of 2020 and 2021 will be the golden year Of gold trading.

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Somehow the tradingview updates are not coming through for every followers so if you want to be sure to get the updates/ideas just follow me on twitter: @ArpiKerenyi

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