As stated last night, DRAFT 10B would invalidate in 12 hours. This is what this looks like now, with the 4/11 ceiling now lower. Let's get this up and I'll add notes.
YOU CAN GIVE ME A REASON TO KEEP FORECASTING
- I need a reason to keep doing this
- and what I need is attention for my work
- so let's make a trade right now
- a lot of my time for just a little bit of yours
- I will continue to write and and update
- as long as views for my work increase on a daily basis
- all you have to do each day
- is spread the word to another trader that you know
- this is the only way I see this working out
- so if you are reading this
- please keep that in mind
YOU CAN GIVE ME A REASON TO KEEP FORECASTING
- I need a reason to keep doing this
- and what I need is attention for my work
- so let's make a trade right now
- a lot of my time for just a little bit of yours
- I will continue to write and and update
- as long as views for my work increase on a daily basis
- all you have to do each day
- is spread the word to another trader that you know
- this is the only way I see this working out
- so if you are reading this
- please keep that in mind
Note
Note
1) so at 10:27 AM ET in chart above...2) there has been no stalling like blue route
3) which means bulls have ASIX HOUR WINDOW FROM NOW TO NY AFTERMARKET
4) so about 6.5 hours as I type at 10:28 AM ET
5) to hit new all time high at 3175
6) meaning low 3050 to high 3175 IN THE SAME SESSION
Note
7) SO UNLESS price stalls out like blue route8) BASE CASE IS 3173 TODAY
9) the problem is that this route (in red in chart above)
10) DOES NOT LOOK LIKE YELLOW OR BLUE
11) but 2 things can be said about this new red route
A) the 4/11-4/13 ceiling DOES NOT DROP FROM FROM 3325-3368
B) and is likely to involve HIGHER DAILY 2-WAY VOL (meaning a lot of zig zag)
Note
12) so by the end of today's NY session in 6.5 hours, this DRAFT 11 maybe very well be uselessNote
4/3, 1:43 PM ET, 3106.XX, so as of RIGHT NOW...13) red route is under 16:1, so basically eliminated
14) but I am careful to not say eliminated because
15) this run up has had a history of making the move the LITERAL LAST HOUR
16) and if you've followed my posts, have done this SEVERAL TIMES!
17) so with that in mind, a STRONGER BLUE ROUTE (meaning like blue, but stronger) ...
18) is now leading all outcomes
Note
Note
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3:23 PM ET, 3110.XX, COMMENTARY ON S&P500...1) it should be obvious now that the only market that is going up any more for this summer
2) is gold
3) and while gold moves for 3400 and what I think is 3965
4) and for the record, I reserve the right to lower this 3965 to 3777
5) the S&P 500 (and by extension ALL MAJOR INDEXES) will setup for a major (but brief) bear market
6) FWIW it looks like this to me:
Note
Note
3:43 PM ET, I'm busy for the rest of today so AS A WARNING BECAUSE EVERYTHING ELSE NOT GOLD IS SO DAMN BEARISH...1) in chart above, I really don't think stocks can "crash without a kiss of death setup"
2) considering where we are with all time vs all trend chart
3) but in case I am wrong about that and the world wants to start going to hell today....
4) THAT WOULD START BY GOLD HOLDING UNDER 3100 REST OF TODAY LIKE THIS:
Note
5:28 PM FORGOT TO POST THIS:Note
5:29 PM, BUT BY NOW: Note
8:31 PM ET... 3108.5... TOO MUCH STALLING, TIME OUT1) I gotta get in a car
2) cannot analyze right now to see what's going to happen here
Note
3) BUT UNDER 3110 IS A PROBLEM FOR THIS SETUP Note
Note
Note
1) so at 8:42 AM ET, 04/04/25, here's what is happening2) first I strongly believe in my thesis of a "kiss of death coming for S&p 500"
3) meanwhile if you play chart at top, gold IS LATE FOR BLUE ROUTE
4) what this is saying is that my 12-month basis...
5) generically speaking, a major gold top, followed by 1000-1300 pts retrace
6) is shaping up not only in gold, but through examination of cross-market volatily
7) however, equity weakness is pulling down gold strength
8) so FIRST, I no longer see a 39xx high for gold in June to August window
9) I see a 37xx-38xx high
10) and... it's not obvious that it should be one top as opposed to 2 tops
11) but IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE 2 TOPS...
12) that's going to be JUNE AND AUGUST
13) this I have strong conviction in
14) meanwhile
Note
Note
15) in chart above, the rejection at 3135 before NFP ..16) has locked the breakout out for next WED
17) that's all I got right now and chart above is prep work for DRAFT #12
Note
Note
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4) IN CHART ABOVE, IF SP 500 GOES TO 29005) GOLD GOES DIRECTLY TO 2160
Note
6) OR MAYBE EVEN 2090 Note
Note
04/04/25, 4:31 PM ET, SO LET'S REVIEW...1) if you remembered in January when I published "this is the entry for 3850"
2) the first run up SHOULD NOT HAVE TAKEN OUT 2790 previous all time high
3) so when it did, my first reaction after that was price was going to retrace 1000 pts
4) there's a draft for 31xx high somewhere I will pull it up later
5) but the problem was THERE WAS NO SETUP FOR IT
6) AND THERE IS NOT ONE EVEN NOW, BUT
7) the price action today has indicated that equity bearishness is causing contagion
8) and gold surrendered a move to 3000 when it had no business moving under 3062 today so ...
9) here's what that means:
Note
10) continuing with chart above11) how do I go to 39xx high, to 37xx, and ALL OF A SUDDEN top in?
12) and straight for 2090?
13) well the 10-20-40 year mean reversion I have previously talked about is at 2090-2180 for June
14) in other words, UNDER 2222
15) in normal price action, the waves would complete the top which would be at least 3770
16) if not 3965 or 4140 and so on...
17) but the price action today is saying that the bearishness in sp500 is bleeding
18) INTO EVERYTHING
19) the drop in the sp500 broke support in a big way
20) that is forcing VERY UNLIKELY PRICE ACTION IN GOLD
21) for example, the odds of dropping under 3062 today to 3000 or 2999?
22) for the trend setup vs Bollingers that we have
23) is WAY UNDER 1%, and probably less than .3%
24) or 1 out of every 300+ outcomes
25) AT ALL TIME HIGHS, THIS IS SCREAMING TOP IN
Note
26) and I wouldn't care if not for SPX setup being SO F-ING VERTICAL DOWN 27) so FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, HERE'S WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
28) (I won't have it up immediately, but soon)
Note
Note
8) so I will get to post #12 ... 9) but in chart above, THAT IS NOW OUR 12 MONTH BASIS
10) with ONE OUTSTANDING ISSUE
11) it's not entirely obvious that the low will be JUNE
12) IT COULD VERY WELL BE SEPTEMBER
13) in which case it would be like this...
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Note
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18a) before I get to that18b) see the blue move? and then the dashed line??
18c) the red move is a "mirror image of the blue move" BUT
18d) ON A DOWNWARD SLOPE WITH THAT CENTER SLOPE BEING THE DASHED LINE
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Note
19) final correction20) it's going to have to be SEPTEMBER, worst case is OCTOBER
21) why?
22) gold's super long term trends too strong to allow a move under 2400 by JUNE
23) MEANING THAT BY JUNE 18TH FOMC, GOLD CAN ONLY MOVE TO 2400 give or take
24) what is at 2400 give or take?
25) THE 45-YEAR TREND LINE!!
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Note
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7:41 PM ET, 04/04/25, so everything said and done gold prices closes Friday at 3037.xx1) 43 trading hours from all time high 3168
2) and only down 4.135% from all time high
3) still stronger than pretty ALL OTHER MAJOR MARKETS WITHOUT EXCEPTION
4) AND TO TAKE IT DOWN FROM HERE MUST INVOLVE...
5) THE RESOLUTION OF THE BULL MARKET SETUP
6) WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED IN CHART ABOVE
7) so that's the basis for DRAFT #12, for 12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING
8) that's a wrap, have a good weekend
Note
SO DOUBLE FINALLY, HERE IS DRAFT #012: 
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