Gold Price Analysis. August 2024.
Today, gold is trading near the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Traditionally, this level acts as a critical resistance point, and most oscillators would suggest the market is overbought, signaling a potential selling opportunity.
However, the situation may be more complex than it appears.
Above the current price, two significant levels loom: the historical high and the psychologically important $2,500 per ounce mark. From a market behavior perspective, which often seems designed to lead retail traders astray, it would not be surprising to see a false bullish breakout above these levels. Such a move could trigger FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying among investors and force sellers to close their positions via stop-loss orders.
This scenario could be exacerbated by a spike in volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions or today’s critical U.S. inflation data (with further significant reports expected tomorrow).
Cycle Analysis by Fintechzoom
An overlay of active gold price cycles presents a projection line (shown in red), indicating a potential peak on Friday, followed by a downturn.
Given this outlook, it would not be surprising if we witness an attempt to breach the historical high within the next 10 days.
Gold Price Forecasts
Analysts, including those from Commerzbank, suggest that a new record high for gold is likely, as inflation data could provide additional momentum.
Strategists at JPMorgan have set a year-end target of $2,500 for gold in 2024.
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