Gold range: 3300-3370
It is recommended to view it with a long-term low-price bullish strategy.
The gold price increase next week is more inclined to 3400+.
At present, the gold market is in a volatile stage driven by "policy uncertainty + geopolitical risk aversion + central bank reserve requirements".
Oscillation range: 3300-3370
Suppressed by a strong dollar and data in the short term
Long-term de-dollarization and stagflation risks remain unchanged.
Next week, focus on the breakthrough direction of the 3300-3370 dollar range.
Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve:
Chairman Kugler warned that restrictive policies need to be maintained to deal with tariff inflation.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly still supports two rate cuts this year.
President Waller even called for a 25 basis point rate cut in July.
Market pricing shows:
The probability of a rate cut in September is 54%
The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 30%.
However, the CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations, which suppressed expectations of rate cuts in the short term.
Trump policy turmoil:
On July 16, the market rumored that Trump intended to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and the price of gold soared to $3,370, but then fell back due to Trump's denial.
The new tariff threat (30% tariff on the EU and 35% tariff on Canada) has raised inflation concerns, but the market is less sensitive to similar news.
Middle East situation: Israel and Hamas have made progress in negotiations, weakening short-term safe-haven demand, but potential conflict risks remain.
Economic data divergence:
Negative factors: US retail sales fell 0.1% month-on-month in June (better than expected -0.8%), and the number of first-time unemployment claims fell to 221,000, showing economic resilience.
Support factors: Weak manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and concerns about a long-term recession limited the decline in gold prices.
Technicals
Current price:
Spot gold is trading in the range of $3340-3350.
Short-term resistance is $3370.
Short-term support is $3300-3320.
Baseline scenario (50% probability):
Gold price moves sideways, with an annual increase of 25-30% ($3400-3600).
Bull scenario (30% probability):
Stagflation or geopolitical crisis pushes gold price to $3700-3880.
Bear scenario (20% probability):
Global conflict easing or a stronger dollar causes gold price to pull back to $2800-3000.
Long-term support factors
Central bank gold buying wave: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached 289 tons, a record high for the same period, and China increased its holdings for 8 consecutive months.
De-dollarization trend: Gold's attributes as a "new currency anchor" are strengthened, and its correlation with geopolitical risks has reached 0.68 (up 22% from last year).
Short-term operation suggestions:
Range trading: Buy low and sell high in the range of 3320-3370 US dollars, and follow the trend after breaking through (if it stabilizes at 3370 US dollars, the target is 3400+).
Risk events: Pay attention to Trump's tariff details, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and official speeches from July 22 to 25.
It is recommended to view it with a long-term low-price bullish strategy.
The gold price increase next week is more inclined to 3400+.
At present, the gold market is in a volatile stage driven by "policy uncertainty + geopolitical risk aversion + central bank reserve requirements".
Oscillation range: 3300-3370
Suppressed by a strong dollar and data in the short term
Long-term de-dollarization and stagflation risks remain unchanged.
Next week, focus on the breakthrough direction of the 3300-3370 dollar range.
Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve:
Chairman Kugler warned that restrictive policies need to be maintained to deal with tariff inflation.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly still supports two rate cuts this year.
President Waller even called for a 25 basis point rate cut in July.
Market pricing shows:
The probability of a rate cut in September is 54%
The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 30%.
However, the CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations, which suppressed expectations of rate cuts in the short term.
Trump policy turmoil:
On July 16, the market rumored that Trump intended to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and the price of gold soared to $3,370, but then fell back due to Trump's denial.
The new tariff threat (30% tariff on the EU and 35% tariff on Canada) has raised inflation concerns, but the market is less sensitive to similar news.
Middle East situation: Israel and Hamas have made progress in negotiations, weakening short-term safe-haven demand, but potential conflict risks remain.
Economic data divergence:
Negative factors: US retail sales fell 0.1% month-on-month in June (better than expected -0.8%), and the number of first-time unemployment claims fell to 221,000, showing economic resilience.
Support factors: Weak manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and concerns about a long-term recession limited the decline in gold prices.
Technicals
Current price:
Spot gold is trading in the range of $3340-3350.
Short-term resistance is $3370.
Short-term support is $3300-3320.
Baseline scenario (50% probability):
Gold price moves sideways, with an annual increase of 25-30% ($3400-3600).
Bull scenario (30% probability):
Stagflation or geopolitical crisis pushes gold price to $3700-3880.
Bear scenario (20% probability):
Global conflict easing or a stronger dollar causes gold price to pull back to $2800-3000.
Long-term support factors
Central bank gold buying wave: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached 289 tons, a record high for the same period, and China increased its holdings for 8 consecutive months.
De-dollarization trend: Gold's attributes as a "new currency anchor" are strengthened, and its correlation with geopolitical risks has reached 0.68 (up 22% from last year).
Short-term operation suggestions:
Range trading: Buy low and sell high in the range of 3320-3370 US dollars, and follow the trend after breaking through (if it stabilizes at 3370 US dollars, the target is 3400+).
Risk events: Pay attention to Trump's tariff details, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and official speeches from July 22 to 25.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.