USD & Gold Market Review September 30, 2024
Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart
The situation is that the Market is quite uncomfortable because it has been 2 weeks, but the USD still has no clear direction for itself. Looking at the event chart above, you can see that the negative psychological price mark is 101.5
- FOMC – interest rate cut by 50 points.
- Manufacturing PMI conflicts, but can still be assessed as bad.
- Shigeru Ishiba puts pressure on the USD, as JPY may get stronger.
- PCE is a bad personal inflation index.
==> A lot of big bad news below the 101.5 mark but the USD still moves sideways up and down, not moving strongly to the number 9x.xxx
==> Although the USD has lowered its closing price WEEKLY, it still causes discomfort because of bad news, such a decrease is not right. Is there a time when USD will suddenly turn over???
What's on this week???
- In early October, at dawn on October 1, 24, Powell spoke
- Friday has employment and NONFARM data
SPDR Gold Trust Analysis
Daily chart of Gold prices and Gold Reserves
- SPDR reduced reserves by 5.18 tons last Friday. However, just a 1-day reduction doesn't give much information, so that's all we know for now.
- The LONG SHORT index of retail traders shows that traders are afraid of SELLing and have the psychology of changing to BUY, so the Market's ability to Kill Sellers is reduced, meaning it is limited in pushing prices up further.
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) stock chart vs. Gold price
The GLD chart is a stock active in the US session, it coincides with the gold price chart when the US stock session opens.
Looking at price behavior with volume on the GLD chart, we see that most of it is bearish behavior, like profit taking at the peak.
=> So in my opinion, the 246 price mark of GLD corresponds to the 2660-65 price range of the gold price, which is a psychological pivot for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust stock).
Analyze the Gold Future Market Volume chart
Price areas with converging Volume on the H4 chart include: 2660, 2625, 2580. Prices are often easily attracted and rotate around these price axes.
Currently on Chart H4 and H1, it can be seen that Gold has a bearish channel and is below the 2660 mark at the end of last week.
Conclude
Pay attention to the BULL BEAR 2660 position pivot price range
BULL faction
- The BULL side should only join the fight when the price has increased past 2660, and there is action to create price support above 2660.
- Or the price drops completely to 2625 to consider further recovery behavior of BULL.
BEAR faction
- Because the trend is still up, Sellers also need to be careful because there is not much Bear support.
- Currently, there is a downward price channel below the 2660 mark, so Sellers should embrace this current price channel to enter orders and minimize risks.
The situation is that the Market is quite uncomfortable because it has been 2 weeks, but the USD still has no clear direction for itself. Looking at the event chart above, you can see that the negative psychological price mark is 101.5
- FOMC – interest rate cut by 50 points.
- Manufacturing PMI conflicts, but can still be assessed as bad.
- Shigeru Ishiba puts pressure on the USD, as JPY may get stronger.
- PCE is a bad personal inflation index.
==> A lot of big bad news below the 101.5 mark but the USD still moves sideways up and down, not moving strongly to the number 9x.xxx
==> Although the USD has lowered its closing price WEEKLY, it still causes discomfort because of bad news, such a decrease is not right. Is there a time when USD will suddenly turn over???
What's on this week???
- In early October, at dawn on October 1, 24, Powell spoke
- Friday has employment and NONFARM data
SPDR Gold Trust Analysis
Daily chart of Gold prices and Gold Reserves
- SPDR reduced reserves by 5.18 tons last Friday. However, just a 1-day reduction doesn't give much information, so that's all we know for now.
- The LONG SHORT index of retail traders shows that traders are afraid of SELLing and have the psychology of changing to BUY, so the Market's ability to Kill Sellers is reduced, meaning it is limited in pushing prices up further.
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) stock chart vs. Gold price
The GLD chart is a stock active in the US session, it coincides with the gold price chart when the US stock session opens.
Looking at price behavior with volume on the GLD chart, we see that most of it is bearish behavior, like profit taking at the peak.
=> So in my opinion, the 246 price mark of GLD corresponds to the 2660-65 price range of the gold price, which is a psychological pivot for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust stock).
Analyze the Gold Future Market Volume chart
Price areas with converging Volume on the H4 chart include: 2660, 2625, 2580. Prices are often easily attracted and rotate around these price axes.
Currently on Chart H4 and H1, it can be seen that Gold has a bearish channel and is below the 2660 mark at the end of last week.
Conclude
Pay attention to the BULL BEAR 2660 position pivot price range
BULL faction
- The BULL side should only join the fight when the price has increased past 2660, and there is action to create price support above 2660.
- Or the price drops completely to 2625 to consider further recovery behavior of BULL.
BEAR faction
- Because the trend is still up, Sellers also need to be careful because there is not much Bear support.
- Currently, there is a downward price channel below the 2660 mark, so Sellers should embrace this current price channel to enter orders and minimize risks.
Note
During the US session, Fed Chairman Powell is expected to give a speech on the economic outlook at the 66th annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Most likely, he will not give any new information compared to the previous press conference because he has not yet announced a new CPI or NFP report. So this speech may be notable but probably won't make a big impact.Note
Gold continued to adjust sharply downward at the beginning of the week and bottomed at 2,630 USD/oz during the session. Profit-taking ahead of China's long holiday and cautious market sentiment appear to be putting pressure on XAU/USD as the market awaits Fed Chairman Powell's speech.Note
The stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to have positive effects. The rise of the Chinese stock market may also affect gold prices due to more attractive yields. Gold is still in extreme overbought territory, so further upside may be hampered.Note
Note
World gold price recorded a slight increase of 2,636 USD/ounce, showing a recovery compared to the previous session. In the previous trading session, the price dropped to 2,629.5 USD/ounce due to pressure from signals of a moderate pace in the Fed's next interest rate easing cycle.Note
- DXY broke out of the Wedge pattern and closed above EMA21, showing a possible recovery from the previous downtrend.
- DXY could continue its upward momentum to retest 102.56 if the index breaks above 101.77 coinciding with the downtrend line.
Note
Gold adjusted to fall deeply below 2,650 USD/oz
After soaring above 2,660 USD/oz due to Israel's threat of "retaliation" against Iran, gold prices have now dropped more than 150 pips to 2,648 USD/oz.
Note
At the end of the trading session on October 2, the spot gold contract dropped 0.5% to 2,649.41 USD/oz. Gold prices rose more than 1% on October 1 after Iran launched missiles to attack Israel.Note
Gold prices traded with a downtrend for the second day in a row as the USD strengthened.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November were pushed back, helping the USD rise to its highest level in weeks.
Geopolitical risks continue to act as a driving force to limit XAU/USD's decline.
Note
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) US services PMI rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month. The new orders index increased 6.4 points to its highest level since the beginning of 2023. The above data shows that the US economy is still quite solid at the end of the third quarter. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 index rose following the figures.Note
At the end of the trading session on October 3, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,657.89 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz.Note
- According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.50% has decreased to 34.6% from more than 57% last week. Market participants will monitor today's Nonfarm Payrolls release to further assess this possibility.
- XAUUSD recently consolidated in the 2.640-2.685 range
Note
At the end of the trading session on October 4, the spot gold contract retreated 0.3% to 2,647.52 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts lost 0.5% to 2,666.60 USD/oz.
US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates by 0.5% at its November 6-7 policy meeting.
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