"Momentum Meets Maturity: Gold Faces Its Final Trap?"
🔹 Overview:
Gold has delivered an explosive rally through Q1–Q2 2025, breaking all structural ceilings and printing a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3500 in April. May followed with aggressive bullish continuation, but failed to break that high, closing with a strong body but signs of momentum cooling. We are now trading inside a premium liquidity zone, where retracement becomes increasingly probable.
🔹 Monthly Structure & Bias
🔎 Component Status / Detail
Current Price Range 3285–3310
Market Bias Bullish, but overextended
ATH Confirmed 3500 (April 2025)
May High 3435 – did not break ATH
Structure HH + BOS above 2108 = bullish macro
EMA Trend Full EMA 5/21/50/100/200 bull lock
RSI Likely near overbought (watch June)
🔹 Refined Monthly Zones – GoldFxMinds Precision
📍 Zone Type Key Levels Explanation
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #1 3335 – 3368 First rejection layer inside premium. Previous wick reactions.
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #2 3368 – 3405 Final inducement from May. Ideal for stop hunts and traps.
🔺 ATH Trap Zone 3405 – 3500 Full liquidity cluster around ATH. Extreme caution here.
🔹 Local Monthly Support 3112 – 3098 Minor support below May’s PNL. First reaction floor.
🔹 FVG/OB Buy Zone 3060 – 3038 Valid monthly FVG + OB zone. Stronger confirmation area.
🔵 Macro Swing Support 2638 – 2612 Monthly OB and last HL before the 3000+ breakout. Solid base.
🔵 BOS Origin / HL Base 2592 – 2570 True origin of macro bullish structure. Swing trader interest.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #1 2280 – 2265 Fibonacci 50% of full macro range + EMA50. Potential macro reentry.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #2 2245 – 2212 Liquidity from past accumulation zones (2023–2024).
🔹 Fibonacci Context
Full swing: 1045 (2015 low) → 3500 (ATH April 2025)
Price is now pressing between the 1.618 and 2.0 extension zone, ideal area for macro distribution.
The 50% equilibrium of the macro range sits at ~2240, aligning with EMAs and historical demand.
🔹 Liquidity Analysis
✅ Buy-side liquidity swept at every major milestone: 2108 → 2500 → 3000 → 3300
🎯 Final liquidity pool lies above 3435 into 3500 → this is where many late buyers could be trapped.
💧 Sell-side liquidity sits cleanly around 3110 → 2590 → 2240 — these are the likely draw targets if correction begins.
🔹 Macroeconomic Context (May–June 2025)
📰 Federal Reserve: Markets expect a possible rate cut in Q3, which still supports gold, but with less surprise.
🌍 Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global instability continues to back the gold rally.
🧮 Equity Overextension: Rotation from risk assets to safety could fuel one more push — or trigger a sharp correction.
💹 Inflation Outlook: Any spike in CPI may trigger further bullish flows — but positioning is already saturated.
🔚 Summary – What's Next?
✅ Trend: Still bullish, but at the final stages of maturity
⚠️ Risk: Sharp rejection likely near 3435–3500
📌 Scenarios to watch:
Push into 3435–3500: Final inducement → possible sharp rejection
Break below 3110: Opens path to 3038 or even 2630
Major swing buys only valid around 2638 or 2240, if macro retracement triggers
🧠 GoldFxMinds Final Word:
The monthly chart shows strength, but we are now deep inside premium, under the shadow of a freshly printed ATH. If June opens with a wick or false breakout above 3435, expect a high-probability retracement toward 3110 or deeper.
This is not the time to chase buys blindly — but rather to position smartly at real OBs and FVGs, where structure confirms.
🔹 Overview:
Gold has delivered an explosive rally through Q1–Q2 2025, breaking all structural ceilings and printing a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3500 in April. May followed with aggressive bullish continuation, but failed to break that high, closing with a strong body but signs of momentum cooling. We are now trading inside a premium liquidity zone, where retracement becomes increasingly probable.
🔹 Monthly Structure & Bias
🔎 Component Status / Detail
Current Price Range 3285–3310
Market Bias Bullish, but overextended
ATH Confirmed 3500 (April 2025)
May High 3435 – did not break ATH
Structure HH + BOS above 2108 = bullish macro
EMA Trend Full EMA 5/21/50/100/200 bull lock
RSI Likely near overbought (watch June)
🔹 Refined Monthly Zones – GoldFxMinds Precision
📍 Zone Type Key Levels Explanation
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #1 3335 – 3368 First rejection layer inside premium. Previous wick reactions.
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #2 3368 – 3405 Final inducement from May. Ideal for stop hunts and traps.
🔺 ATH Trap Zone 3405 – 3500 Full liquidity cluster around ATH. Extreme caution here.
🔹 Local Monthly Support 3112 – 3098 Minor support below May’s PNL. First reaction floor.
🔹 FVG/OB Buy Zone 3060 – 3038 Valid monthly FVG + OB zone. Stronger confirmation area.
🔵 Macro Swing Support 2638 – 2612 Monthly OB and last HL before the 3000+ breakout. Solid base.
🔵 BOS Origin / HL Base 2592 – 2570 True origin of macro bullish structure. Swing trader interest.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #1 2280 – 2265 Fibonacci 50% of full macro range + EMA50. Potential macro reentry.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #2 2245 – 2212 Liquidity from past accumulation zones (2023–2024).
🔹 Fibonacci Context
Full swing: 1045 (2015 low) → 3500 (ATH April 2025)
Price is now pressing between the 1.618 and 2.0 extension zone, ideal area for macro distribution.
The 50% equilibrium of the macro range sits at ~2240, aligning with EMAs and historical demand.
🔹 Liquidity Analysis
✅ Buy-side liquidity swept at every major milestone: 2108 → 2500 → 3000 → 3300
🎯 Final liquidity pool lies above 3435 into 3500 → this is where many late buyers could be trapped.
💧 Sell-side liquidity sits cleanly around 3110 → 2590 → 2240 — these are the likely draw targets if correction begins.
🔹 Macroeconomic Context (May–June 2025)
📰 Federal Reserve: Markets expect a possible rate cut in Q3, which still supports gold, but with less surprise.
🌍 Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global instability continues to back the gold rally.
🧮 Equity Overextension: Rotation from risk assets to safety could fuel one more push — or trigger a sharp correction.
💹 Inflation Outlook: Any spike in CPI may trigger further bullish flows — but positioning is already saturated.
🔚 Summary – What's Next?
✅ Trend: Still bullish, but at the final stages of maturity
⚠️ Risk: Sharp rejection likely near 3435–3500
📌 Scenarios to watch:
Push into 3435–3500: Final inducement → possible sharp rejection
Break below 3110: Opens path to 3038 or even 2630
Major swing buys only valid around 2638 or 2240, if macro retracement triggers
🧠 GoldFxMinds Final Word:
The monthly chart shows strength, but we are now deep inside premium, under the shadow of a freshly printed ATH. If June opens with a wick or false breakout above 3435, expect a high-probability retracement toward 3110 or deeper.
This is not the time to chase buys blindly — but rather to position smartly at real OBs and FVGs, where structure confirms.
🔹 Free Channel:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_AI
🔸 VIP Access & 1-on-1 Coaching:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_A
📌 Daily Sniper Plans | Elite XAUUSD Setups | Step-by-Step Education & Guidance
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_AI
🔸 VIP Access & 1-on-1 Coaching:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_A
📌 Daily Sniper Plans | Elite XAUUSD Setups | Step-by-Step Education & Guidance
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔹 Free Channel:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_AI
🔸 VIP Access & 1-on-1 Coaching:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_A
📌 Daily Sniper Plans | Elite XAUUSD Setups | Step-by-Step Education & Guidance
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_AI
🔸 VIP Access & 1-on-1 Coaching:
👉 t.me/GoldMindsFX_A
📌 Daily Sniper Plans | Elite XAUUSD Setups | Step-by-Step Education & Guidance
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.