Sell order activated / Bullish bias rejected, as it was expected
Gold's general commentary: February #28 High’s was touched, acting as an Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone and a rebound there initiated the Selling sequence back towards #1,917.80 - #1,921.80 Support zone where #1,900.80 psychological barrier might be tested in succession, pricing new Higher Low’s there (Upper zone). Another green Hourly 4 chart’s candle (market closing above #1,930.80 as discussed may arise Gold’s Buyers on the aftermath) is now reversed and now could make a Bearish breakout structure which may end up and continue Trading near new Low's extension near #1,915.80 again if #1,921.80 gets tested and invalidated on one hit. The Volatility is still High though both on DX and Bond Yields, so it is best to observe the configuration on the Hourly 4 chart (which is leaning to Selling side, Rising Wedge) as Price-action is once again approaching Daily chart’s Support variance. If Support zone breaks, I expect at least #1,900.80 barrier test throughout today's session. If not and #1,933.80 - #1,935.80 gets invalidated instead, Price-action turns to Bullish again on the Short-term towards #1,942.80 extension possibly.
Fundamental analysis: The balance is very tight and largely depends on the DX and U.S. Bond Yields market recovery. I have clear Selling signal on my hands at the moment (unless one of the Resistance benchmarks break), but as Daily chart’s Resistance and Support zones are intact, I am giving more probabilities to the downside, as Daily chart’s Moving Average is lately the benchmark for the Medium-term. It is important to address current Bullish spike, as most likely it was closely tied to Russian government's official stating that they are no longer interested in U.S. Dollar (which, by their accounts, lost it's old glory and value), as they might continue to take physical Gold for Gas and Oil payments, which immediately had effect on Gold's Price-action, arising Investors and Gold's Buyers. But still, #1,930's Resistance cluster was Technically showing High durability, pushing the Price-action once again towards #1,920's zone, delivering optimal Selling opportunity.
Technical analysis: So far Gold has successfully broken the #1,930.80 - #1,933.80 Resistance zone on Hourly 4 chart despite Double Bottom rejection formation on Bond Yields (# -1.84%), currently Trading within Neutral Rectangle. DX (# +0.27%) continues to recover yesterday's session spiral downtrend, progressively adding Selling pressure on Gold. Keep in mind that #1,942.80 Resistance structure was near and could be broken on one try, postponing further devaluation on Gold. That very same development on any other occasion would be considered as an Bullish full scale breakout, but many Fundamental reports are planned throughout current week (usually Gold has Bearish sentiment on the aftermath, as peace talks are in final stages and I expect surprise on NFP report, which may spike DX upwards and add enormous Selling pressure on Gold), which could be positive for DX on smaller timeframes / hence negative for Gold as current upswing is still no reason for an alarm (for Gold’s Sellers), while Bond Yields were Trading almost on #2.00% decline. As soon as Bond Yields engage Short-term recovery, Gold may follow with decent Selling opportunity. I am still confident about Gold's Selling potential on both Short and Medium-term.
My position: As I give more probabilities to the Selling side, I engaged my Selling order with #1,927.80 as an entry point. My optimal Target is #1,900.80 barrier, and break of can extend the Selling rally towards #1,882.80 Higher Low's extension.
Fundamental analysis: The balance is very tight and largely depends on the DX and U.S. Bond Yields market recovery. I have clear Selling signal on my hands at the moment (unless one of the Resistance benchmarks break), but as Daily chart’s Resistance and Support zones are intact, I am giving more probabilities to the downside, as Daily chart’s Moving Average is lately the benchmark for the Medium-term. It is important to address current Bullish spike, as most likely it was closely tied to Russian government's official stating that they are no longer interested in U.S. Dollar (which, by their accounts, lost it's old glory and value), as they might continue to take physical Gold for Gas and Oil payments, which immediately had effect on Gold's Price-action, arising Investors and Gold's Buyers. But still, #1,930's Resistance cluster was Technically showing High durability, pushing the Price-action once again towards #1,920's zone, delivering optimal Selling opportunity.
Technical analysis: So far Gold has successfully broken the #1,930.80 - #1,933.80 Resistance zone on Hourly 4 chart despite Double Bottom rejection formation on Bond Yields (# -1.84%), currently Trading within Neutral Rectangle. DX (# +0.27%) continues to recover yesterday's session spiral downtrend, progressively adding Selling pressure on Gold. Keep in mind that #1,942.80 Resistance structure was near and could be broken on one try, postponing further devaluation on Gold. That very same development on any other occasion would be considered as an Bullish full scale breakout, but many Fundamental reports are planned throughout current week (usually Gold has Bearish sentiment on the aftermath, as peace talks are in final stages and I expect surprise on NFP report, which may spike DX upwards and add enormous Selling pressure on Gold), which could be positive for DX on smaller timeframes / hence negative for Gold as current upswing is still no reason for an alarm (for Gold’s Sellers), while Bond Yields were Trading almost on #2.00% decline. As soon as Bond Yields engage Short-term recovery, Gold may follow with decent Selling opportunity. I am still confident about Gold's Selling potential on both Short and Medium-term.
My position: As I give more probabilities to the Selling side, I engaged my Selling order with #1,927.80 as an entry point. My optimal Target is #1,900.80 barrier, and break of can extend the Selling rally towards #1,882.80 Higher Low's extension.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.