Core logic of the market
Risk aversion supports gold prices: Trump postponed tariffs but threatened to increase them in the future. Market concerns about trade frictions remain, and gold is still supported as a safe-haven asset.
Impact of the US dollar trend: If trade tensions escalate, the US dollar may be under pressure, which is further beneficial to gold.
Technical side is bullish and volatile: The daily line closed positive and stabilized the lower Bollinger track. The H4 cycle rebounded with consecutive positives, but it has not yet broken through the key resistance of 3345. Be wary of repeated fluctuations.
Key point analysis
Support level: 3310-3300 (short-term), 3285 (strong support)
Resistance level: 3340-3345 (Daily Bollinger middle track), 3365 (target after breakthrough)
Key day of change: The rebound may continue on Thursday. If it breaks through 3345, it may further attack 3365-3400 on Friday.
Trading strategy
1. Low-to-long (main strategy)
Entry point: 3310-3315 (retracement support area)
Stop loss: 3305 (prevent false breakthrough)
Target: 3325 (short-term), 3335-3345 (key resistance area)
Logic: H4 cycle continuous positive shows bullish momentum, and it is expected to continue to rebound after retracement support.
2. High-level short-selling auxiliary trading strategy (if key resistance is touched)
Entry point: 3340-3345 (first test resistance area)
Stop loss: 3350 (prevent breakout and upward movement)
Target: 3325-3320 (short-term correction)
Logic: 3345 is a strong pressure from the middle track of the daily Bollinger. You can short before breaking through, but you need to enter and exit quickly.
Key observation points
3345 breakthrough situation:
If it stands firmly at 3345, you can go long with a light position after the correction (target 3365, 3400).
If it falls under pressure, it may return to the 3310-3340 oscillation range.
3300 defense situation:
If it falls below 3300, it may fall back to 3285, and we need to be alert to short-term weakness.
Summary
Main idea: Low-long (3310-3315) as the main, target 3345, and look at 3365+ after breaking through.
Auxiliary strategy: 3340-3345 short, fast in and fast out.
Risk control: Strictly stop loss, avoid chasing up and selling down, and pay attention to the changes in the momentum of the US market.
Trade active
Analysis and trading strategies of the latest gold trend on July 11:
Market review: oscillating downward, risk aversion and the US dollar game
Market review:
Falling in early Asian trading on Wednesday: gold prices once fell to 3282.61 (the lowest since June 30), but did not fall below the key support of 3280.
Rebound in the US market: driven by risk aversion demand, gold prices rebounded to around 3320, but failed to break through the resistance of 3345, and maintained an overall oscillating downward trend.
Influencing factors:
Safe-haven support: Trump's tariff policy, US fiscal deficit concerns and geopolitical risks drive gold buying on dips.
US dollar suppression: The US dollar index remained stable at a two-week high, limiting the upside of gold prices.
US Treasury yields fell: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.34%, easing some of the pressure on gold, but did not change the overall oscillation pattern.
Technical analysis: key support and resistance
Trend judgment:
Oscillating downward: highs gradually move down (3345→3335→3326), lows test 3280 support, shorts still have the upper hand.
Key watershed: 3345 (double top neckline), if broken through, the market will turn strong, otherwise the market will remain bearish.
Key positions in the four-hour chart:
Resistance: 3326-3327 (short-term trend line), 3335 (downward trend line), 3345 (bull-bear boundary).
Support: 3280-3282 (recent lows), if it falls below, look down to 3245-3250.
MACD signal: Golden cross below the zero axis, but the momentum is insufficient, beware of false breakthroughs.
Daily structure:
Still oscillating in the 3280-3345 range, the Bollinger band narrows, waiting for the breakthrough direction.
Today's trading strategy (July 11)
Main idea: high short as the main, low long as the auxiliary
Short strategy (follow the trend):
Aggressive short order: 3325-3330 light position short test, stop loss 3335, target 3300-3280.
Steady short order: 3330-3335 short, stop loss 3345, target 3300-3280.
Bull defense strategy (contrarian caution):
3280-3285 short-term long, stop loss 3275, target 3300-3310 (only for the first touch).
Breakthrough strategy:
Break above 3345: follow long after stepping back to 3335, target 3365-3400.
Break below 3280: rebound 3290 to chase short, target 3250-3245.
Key events and risk warnings
Economic data:
Speech by Fed officials (dovish signals may suppress the US dollar).
Risk warning:
Current market sentiment is sensitive, beware of false breakthroughs, and strictly stop losses.
If geopolitical conflicts escalate (such as the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine), risk aversion may drive gold prices up sharply.
Summary
Short-term trend: shock and bearish, maintain high-altitude thinking below 3345.
Key support: 3280 (breaking it will open up downward space).
Trading advice: patiently wait for key positions to enter the market, avoid chasing orders, and strictly control risks.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.