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Gold - Multi Year view -why is this week important(4th Feb 2019)

Disclaimer - I am new to technical studies and learning everyday. Please share your views, it will help me to learn better.

After reviewing GOLD multi year chart I see the following:

1. Oct 2008 @ approx $682 and high in Aug 2011 @ approx $1919

2. Retracements upward since Aug 2018 at exactly .618 level

3. Now broke .50 level last week at approx $1302 level

4. This week, it should pullback upto .50 level. From here if it breaks above ( probably inside bar breakout) then we should target next Fib level. Hurdle before it will be a trend-line coming down supported by another trend-line upward providing ample trading opportunities.

Share your views and help me learn further.

Thanks

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Ideall, as per Point 4 above, it should break down

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As anticipated, Inside bar breakdown happened. Now its approaching:
1. .786 fib level from high of 1279.
2. this level is also strong structure for multi month low.

So if it break below this, the bull run should be over.

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This structure also aligns to multi month upward trend line.. so below this should be a beginning of down trend.

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Well within the range of Long set-up. Closure below this level is not good.
Will wait for a buy setup. If not positive signals pops up, then it will be a sell eventually.

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Ar 1hr chart..possible setup...

Trade active

Long

Trade active

Long Initiated

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possibly a double bottom

will close if it goes below 1303

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As anticipated, double bottom made. Now looking to break neckline.. Let's see if it succeeds

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if it fails to stay above .786 ( 1312.99), I will close my long position

Trade closed: stop reached

Trade Closed

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For last 7 days, it has failed to break .236 level.It looks like it will go upto .786 level until 1297- interesting times.

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Or possibly upto .382 which co-incides with trendline and channel.

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Double Top created, looking to break neckline... Bears are coming

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These are the most problematic candles. It kills

However, it looks like a bearish bias now it has a Bearish engulfing now on a Daily chart

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Final Conclusion :- after watching this for a week now, the final conclusion is wait and watch.

A break below 1304(.786 level) of current spike which co-insides with 0.5 for the long term view is key. A move above this level is bull trend and below is bearish.

Buy above 1315/16 or sell below 1304

Waiting for a Inside bar at 4H candle to a decision.

Trade active

Long initiated - SL 1302

Trade closed: target reached

Closing this trade for now. While I am bullish until 135x levels, will look for new entry at lower sides as the risk increases. This is also in view with EUR/USD.

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Previous trade close idea was good. Looking to buy between 1303 and 1310.
Exact price can only be determined when we move close to that range.
In such a scenario, at the current state, a PUT should be purchased for 1320 almost ATM.

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since the last update, came down as expected.
It has broken down 786 level since multi-year high, so will have to be careful before opening a long. At this stage, Inside bar breakdown on daily candle. Ideally, it should be a short position furhter. But could be risky as its near support of 1317.. will wait for Long entry

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Good Cypher Pattern in Play. will look to buy at Point D

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Finally, it seems that ABCD pattern is complete.

Inside bar formation. We should look to buy the break of 1300

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Following this idea stream, ideally, we should be on the way above 1300, 1303 and then 1308.
I see cypher pattern is complete as predicted weeks ago. However 1303 is 0.5 of the weekly chart( long term view), so it's critical to be broken before it goes further.

In such a situation, there should be a option strategy we should look for as its a tight R/R ratio. And since I do not know how to trade Options properly, I will wait for it to cross 1303 before going long or will short at 1303 if it fails to break it.( via Price action)

Trade active

long now. 1306

SL: 1302

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Early detection should help - Possible Cypher Pattern in play

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Long Idea Details:

Trade closed: target reached

target reached at point C..now looking to short to point D

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Trade closed: target reached

time to close this trade..

Point D almost hit.... buying coming back at 200 MA
looking for a buy signal

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Looks like closed the trade too early. Things doesnt look bright for Gold at this stage. Daily chart showing breakdown and 1 hr chart shows failure to break upwards

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Interesting.. .. Looks like its not breaking the channel UP.. if it sustains, then it will be the time to buy.

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Looking for downward move

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I was not expecting this FAST.... Wooh...

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Looking for retracement to near 1300/02 levels for new short entry
Fib level broken

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I starting this idea at beginning of Feb 2019 and just at the end of March 2109, things have changed drastically..

Closing prices in March/ this week will tell us a lot.. The charts below look scary for bulls and cheerful for bears.
If the trend line is broken, then Bears will have it.

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referring to comment above - If March closing is not the way as stated above,
possibly of Higher gold prices form here. Important to see where GOLD prices goes tomorrow to close the week and then month.

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I was blind not to see this before.. Divergence - The signal to tell you what is about to happen...

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Best place to short GOLD - 1300/1303
Weekly bearish engulfing
next few weeks are US earning season- Markets could be bullish- this is -ve for XAU

Best place to buy ( cheap ) would be around 125x

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Looks like Bears will have tough time. cautiously bearish..

this H&S could be in play..

Trade closed: target reached

Pin Bar after support..

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For the upcoming week - Outlook is still bearish.
Rangebound prices for the last week. No much movement on a weekly basis.
As such, the outlook is still bearish -Target 1263
Outlook is bearish as :
1. NFP data was positive
2. US Stocks still soaring as Employment Nos. are good and EU has problems.
3. Guidance will be taken from FOMC meeting minutes coming this week.

Long term view ( 12 months) : Bullish
1. Look to purchase at 1275 ( depending on Price Action)
2. Confirm buy at 1263

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Lovely - Its reaching there.. Looking to buy around 1260 / 1270 - Price action confirmation required.

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few days ago

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double bottom formed and breakout looking... that's the time to go for long

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It workss :
Continue to hold until 1279 is broken back.

Trade active

Short - SL tight..

Trade active

finally

ABFX6

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