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Gold - The U.S. Employment Report supports the interest rate cut bet this month, and gold maintains a narrow range of stability.
At the end of November, China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by 4.81 billion yuan month-on-month to $3,265,860 billion, reversing the sharp decline in the previous month, and capital inflows offset the negative valuation effect of the rebound of the US dollar. The central bank increased its gold reserves again after six months, but the gold price adjustment led to the amount of gold reserves in US dollars. A small fall. The Central Bank of China increased its holdings of gold by 160,000 ounces, bringing the total scale to 72.96 million ounces. The Central Bank of China began to buy gold from November 2022 until April 2024, with a cumulative purchase of 10.16 million ounces of gold in 18 months. After that, it suspended the purchase of gold for six consecutive months and repurchased 160,000 ounces of gold in November. However, the gold reserves in US dollars are only $193.43 billion, and its size is still less than 6% of the total reserve size.
Since the beginning of last week, the US dollar fell on Thursday, and the market’s bet on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut was generally stable, partly due to the weaker-than-expected service industry data on Wednesday and the higher-expected number of unemployment claims. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the U.S. economy was stronger than expected when the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in September, and he seemed to imply support slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts. Later, data released on Friday showed that employment growth in the United States grew in November after being severely disrupted by hurricanes and strikes, but this may not mean that the employment market situation has changed substantially. The employment situation is expected to continue to slow down steadily, and the US dollar will fall and then stabilize after the data is released. The non-farm employment in the United States increased by 227,000 in November, compared with 36,000 in October; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% after remaining at 4.1% for two consecutive months. The average hourly wage growth rate is 0.4%, and the annual rate increases by 4.0%. At present, the market believes that the possibility of a 25-base-point interest rate cut this month is about 86%, and before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 17-18, the U.S. November inflation index will be released this week.
London gold was slightly under pressure after the release of U.S. non-farm employment data, but it can still be in the recent range. As shown in the technical chart, the gold price has roughly remained around 2620 to 2650 for more than a week, and is still waiting to break out to make it clear. The larger support is expected to be $2,600, and the next reference level is $2,582 on the 100-day average. The fall in gold prices in mid-November also happened to be supported at the 100-day average. The key will be in 2535, from the bottom of the consolidation from May to June to around $2,280 to the end of last month, a cumulative increase of nearly $510, half of which is $255 to $2,535. As for the current closer resistance, let’s look at 2648 and the 50-day average of 2668, and the next level of resistance is estimated at $2,700 and $2,725.
At the end of November, China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by 4.81 billion yuan month-on-month to $3,265,860 billion, reversing the sharp decline in the previous month, and capital inflows offset the negative valuation effect of the rebound of the US dollar. The central bank increased its gold reserves again after six months, but the gold price adjustment led to the amount of gold reserves in US dollars. A small fall. The Central Bank of China increased its holdings of gold by 160,000 ounces, bringing the total scale to 72.96 million ounces. The Central Bank of China began to buy gold from November 2022 until April 2024, with a cumulative purchase of 10.16 million ounces of gold in 18 months. After that, it suspended the purchase of gold for six consecutive months and repurchased 160,000 ounces of gold in November. However, the gold reserves in US dollars are only $193.43 billion, and its size is still less than 6% of the total reserve size.
Since the beginning of last week, the US dollar fell on Thursday, and the market’s bet on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut was generally stable, partly due to the weaker-than-expected service industry data on Wednesday and the higher-expected number of unemployment claims. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the U.S. economy was stronger than expected when the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in September, and he seemed to imply support slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts. Later, data released on Friday showed that employment growth in the United States grew in November after being severely disrupted by hurricanes and strikes, but this may not mean that the employment market situation has changed substantially. The employment situation is expected to continue to slow down steadily, and the US dollar will fall and then stabilize after the data is released. The non-farm employment in the United States increased by 227,000 in November, compared with 36,000 in October; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% after remaining at 4.1% for two consecutive months. The average hourly wage growth rate is 0.4%, and the annual rate increases by 4.0%. At present, the market believes that the possibility of a 25-base-point interest rate cut this month is about 86%, and before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 17-18, the U.S. November inflation index will be released this week.
London gold was slightly under pressure after the release of U.S. non-farm employment data, but it can still be in the recent range. As shown in the technical chart, the gold price has roughly remained around 2620 to 2650 for more than a week, and is still waiting to break out to make it clear. The larger support is expected to be $2,600, and the next reference level is $2,582 on the 100-day average. The fall in gold prices in mid-November also happened to be supported at the 100-day average. The key will be in 2535, from the bottom of the consolidation from May to June to around $2,280 to the end of last month, a cumulative increase of nearly $510, half of which is $255 to $2,535. As for the current closer resistance, let’s look at 2648 and the 50-day average of 2668, and the next level of resistance is estimated at $2,700 and $2,725.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.