Spot gold rebounded slightly to around $3,250 in the European session. Previously, due to the progress of the Sino-US trade agreement, the risk aversion sentiment cooled down, causing the gold price to pull back. The current market is in a stage of long-short game. On the one hand, the easing of the trade situation weakens the demand for risk aversion, and on the other hand, inflationary pressure and uncertainty in the Fed's policy still provide support for gold prices.
Fundamental driving factors
The impact of the trade agreement
The easing of Sino-US trade has reduced the market's risk aversion demand, but the improvement of the supply chain may ease inflationary pressure and postpone the Fed's expectations of rate cuts.
Some institutions warned that the current tariff level may still push up inflation and limit the room for monetary policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance and the interest rate cut may be postponed to December this year.
Gold is sensitive to interest rates. If the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up, the gold price may resume its upward trend; otherwise, it will be under pressure.
Technical analysis
Daily structure: Oscillation in the rising channel
Trend framework: Gold prices have been running in the rising channel since March. After breaking through 3200 in April, it hit a high of 3499 and currently fell back to the middle and lower track of the channel (near 3250).
Key position:
Support: 3200 (previous high conversion support + channel lower track), if it fails, it will look down to 3150-3100.
Resistance: 3350 (short-term long-short boundary), it is expected to test 3400-3500 after breaking through.
Indicator signal:
RSI (49.94): neutral, no clear overbought/oversold signal.
CCI (-109.87): close to oversold, beware of technical rebound.
Bollinger Bands: The price hovered around the middle track (3269), the channel remained intact, and 3200-3350 was the short-term fluctuation range.
Market sentiment
The fear and greed index fell, indicating that investor sentiment tended to be rational.
Fund flows show that risk aversion demand has not completely subsided, and buying support near 3200 is significant.
Outlook for the future
Short-term (1-2 weeks)
Range consolidation: 3150-3350 is the main fluctuation range, and 3200 is the long-term defense line.
Breakthrough direction:
Break above 3350: open rebound space, target 3400-3500.
Break below 3200: Deep correction risk increases, pay attention to 3150-3100 support.
Medium and long term (1-3 months)
Upward conditions: The Federal Reserve releases a signal of interest rate cuts, and gold prices may challenge 3500-3700.
Downward risks: If high interest rates continue and the trade situation improves, the 3000 mark may be tested.
Trading strategy suggestions
Long: 3200-3230 area is deployed in batches, stop loss 3180, target 3300-3350.
Short position: try short position with a light position near 3350, stop loss at 3380, target 3250-3200.
Breakout trading: effectively break through 3350 to chase long, or fall below 3180 to follow the trend.
Risk warning: pay attention to US CPI data and speeches by Fed officials, and be wary of fluctuations caused by changes in policy expectations.
Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.