Analysis of the current core logic of the gold market
1. Driving factors: risk aversion + Fed policy expectations
Trade war escalation: Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars (effective on April 2), which triggered market concerns about the intensification of global trade conflicts and promoted safe-haven funds to flow into gold.
Federal Reserve Policy: Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but hinted that interest rates may be cut this year. The low interest rate environment is good for gold (because gold does not generate interest, it is more attractive when the actual yield falls).
Inflation expectations: If tariffs push up the prices of imported goods in the United States, it may aggravate inflation, while concerns about slowing economic growth will strengthen the safe-haven properties of gold.
Risk warning:
The current trend is bullish, and shorting against the trend requires light positions and strict stop losses. If the PCE data is stronger than expected (released on Friday), it may suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, and gold may pull back. Key risks and responses
Trade policy changes: If Trump postpones tariffs or releases easing signals, gold may fall quickly.
2. Key technical signals
Breakthrough range: Gold previously fluctuated in the 3000-3030 range. On March 27, it broke through the upper edge of 3030 due to safe-haven buying, confirming the short-term bullish trend.
Support and resistance:
Support level: 3030-3033 (previous high point turned into support, top and bottom conversion position).
Resistance level: 3066-3080 (target level calculated by the band increase, close to the historical high).
Moving average system: The golden cross of the 1-hour moving average diverges, showing strong short-term bullish momentum.
Operation strategy evaluation and suggestions
1. Long strategy (main idea)
Entry point: callback to the 3033-3035 range (strong support area).
Stop loss: 3027 (if it falls below the previous low, the trend may weaken).
Target:
The first target is 3050-3060 (intraday short-term stop profit).
The second target is 3070-3080 (band holding needs to observe momentum).
2. Short strategy (auxiliary idea)
Condition: The price rises to the 3070-3080 area, and there are stagflation signals (such as long upper shadows, hourly MACD top divergence). Stop loss: above 3085 (to prevent a strong breakthrough). Target: around 3050 (short-term correction).
Trade active
From the perspective of wave structure, gold is driven upward by 5 waves from 2537 on the daily level. The current market is in a 5-wave upward rise from 2832. The 5-wave can be further subdivided into 5 waves. The 5-wave 1 is 2832-2929, the 5-wave 2 is 2929-2880, and the 5-wave 3 is 2880-3057. Yesterday, the market broke through 3057 and rose in volume, confirming that the 5-wave 4 is 3057-2999. The current market is in the last wave of 5-5. The end of the 5-5 rise will start a large-level falling wave.
According to the wave rule, the length of the 5-wave is generally between 1 times and 0.618 of the 1-wave. The amplitude of 5-1 is 97 $. If the amplitude of 5-5 is equal, the upper side will be around 3097. From the perspective of the Fibonacci retracement extension line, there are two resistance levels above 3088-3108. Therefore, when the market rises and touches around 3100, it is necessary to be cautious about the bullish trend and pay attention to whether there is a structure around 3100 to see a wave of retracement.
In the short term, the low-long bullish thinking remains unchanged, and when the price touches 3100, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a risk of a high-rise fall. Today, gold rose in the early trading, and the European trading has not yet broken a new high, so the US trading needs to pay attention to the continuity of the rise. In terms of points, today's early trading low of 3054 is also today's watershed. This is definitely not a test. If the market comes down here, it means that the probability of a new high in the short term is small. The short-term support below is 3065, the low of the European trading session, and above the high of 3060 last night, it will maintain a strong bullish position. If it breaks down, it will weaken. The upper resistance level is 3085-3100-3108. After going up, consider a high-rise fall. In short, the European trading session did not break high, so be cautious about chasing the rise at high levels.
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💥Free gold trading signals: t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.