ROAD TO 3850, DECEMBER LONG 2630s to 2820s
Updated
This is most complete draft finish minutes ago. This is published for our group to track the move ending 12/30. Note that the 12/30, 2820s exit is simultaneously the entry for JANUARY SHORT to 2540s. 190 points in 12 days is pretty damn good reason to post this.
Note
Trade active
Note
Note
6) 3:44 PM ET, I am aware of the 2470 pattern where this leg continues to 2470
7) the math I have continues to say 2775-2830 is favored vs 2470 for 12/30 close
Note
3:47 PM ET, until this math changes...
a) I am still looking for an entry long to 2775-2830 for 12/30 close
b) but I am gun shy and want to see the first move that sets up the reversal up
c) b/c while I have very strong confidence in 2775-2830 for 12/30
d) strategy requires that we wait for the entry
Note
3:56 PM ET, I took entry at 2592.xx with 2586 stop.
a) if it's going to move, it's got to move from here
b) the math is worth the risk bc even with 2775 ceiling...
c) it's still 180+pts from here
Note
Note
4:09 PM ET, so that's my entry for this trade
a) bc I have conviction that my math is correct
b) and that worst case scenario is 2775-ish for 12/30
c) will add notes as we go
Note
d) and for the record, I AM BEING GREEDY HERE BC ...
e) the math says I'M SUPPOSED TO BE GREEDY HERE
f) you can always wait until 2618 to buy, etc...
Note
4:17 PM ET, I am looking for 2638 before midnight, New York time.
Note
7:50 PM ET, 2594.62... STILL IN, STILL CHASING 2775 by 12/30
a) so I have strong conviction in this LONG FROM ENTRY 2592.XX
b) mathematically speaking, WORST CASE SCENARIO I CAN SEE IS 2730-2740
c) I am still hunting for 2775, but it's obvious that stalling under 2600 means ...
d) I have to lower high target for 12/30 as time goes by
e) but as of RIGHT NOW, I HAVE TOTAL CONVICTION IN THIS LONG
f) despite price not moving since I took entry at 2592
Note
Note
g) continuing in chart above....
h) and this trade should really be a hold to and maybe even through 12/30
Note
9:55 PM ET, 12/18, 2609.XX after tagging 2618...
a) if you replay chart at top
b) price have broken the dotted line to mark 2618
c) earlier, I said if you want to wait, you can wait for 2618 to entry
d) obviously this makes no difference to me personally...
e) as of right now, I have to believe the 12/30 ceiling is between 2775 and 2792
f) should momentum give me a reason to raise that number, I will
g) but like in chart above, price have to EXCEED BLUE AND MOVE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
h) and almost have to OUTPERFORM YELLOW ROUTE in some stretch to raise that ceiling again
i) in a way, to make up for lost time...
j) otherwise, it is hard for me to raise this 12/30 ceiling past 2775-2792
Note
k) but I SHOULD SAY THAT THE SETUP EXISTS FOR PRICE TO CATCH YELLOW ROUTE
l) so we will see where we are Friday and Monday
Note
Note
6) the biggest issue is when do we take out first box?
7) in chart above needs to be before X-mas
Note
Note
8) 5:26 AM ET, here's what I see in chart above:
a) in my humbled opinion 2770s "is in the bag"
b) the questions are can we make 2790, 2800s, 2830, and 2855-2865
c) as OF THIS MINUTE IN TIME, the door is WIDE OPEN
d) but for January 1st to January 6th ceiling 2865
e) but momentum, or speed, is all that matters for this move
f) it's not completely obvious to me that this run should extend after 12/30
Note
g) so at 2621.xx at 5:30 AM ET in chart above with the BIG RED ARROW
h) my expectation to catch up to yellow route in chart at top is 110% alive and live
i) but the sooner the better if we want 2865
Note
Note
Note
3:44 PM ET, 2598.XX, back in at 2596.75 and ....
1) this thing is going to have to move up significantly by 10 AM tomorrow
2) if it doesn't, I don't know where this can go bc we everything I have says it should go up
3) at some point, I have to eliminate everything above 2830 bc it doesn't make sense
4) until then...
5) I am back in it 2586 stop and STILL STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2775-2830 ON 12/30
Note
12:32 PM ET, 12/20, I am busy so I can't update but:
6) so I am still in it and still STRONG CONVICTION FOR 2765 with 2823 high range
7) that's all I got time for...
8) will add notes later today
Note
12/23, 11:39 PM ET, 2618.77, hard stop 2607.50
1) we are at the last possible late route for this move
2) which now has dropped the ceiling down to 2775-ish
3) a break under 2607 again would mean something else
Note
4) until that happens, I am still in December longNote
12/24/24, 1:15 PM HET, SO HERE'S WHAT I AM LOOKING AT AND WHY I HAVEN'T POSTED IT...
1) this drop and stall under 2630 CANNOT PREVENT MOVE TO 2775 AND LIKELY HIGHER
2) but the timing of the high is no longer obvious
3) last week on discord I said I had evidence of a stronger move for June high
4) but didn't want to bring it up until it was statistically obvious bc every time it was previously brought up...
5) it was wrong
6) so back to our overall pattern
a) we are looking for rally higher
b) then a huge check down
c) then ALL THE WAY UP
7) so what has changed??
8) what we have is an UP SHIFT OF THE ENTIRE PATTERN
Note
Note
9) I wrote some notes that didn't get posted
10) to summarize:
a) yellow arrow is pointing at the break of the blue line
b) price can keep stalling here for a while with 1 more possible dip to 2592 (may or may not)
c) the longer price stalls here, the further the blue arrows move
d) meaning the the 2800+/-25 keeps getting pushed forward
e) which in turn push the red arrows forward AND UP, raising the the floor WAY UP
11) so the Jan and February lows now look like both in February
12) and look like it's 2592-2600 floor
13) this ultimately raises JUNE HIGH but I am not getting in to that until at least March
14) so all in all, TOTAL CONVICTION FOR 2775-2825
15) with one more possible dip to 2592 before blue line breaks
Note
16) so if you wanted to go long gold on a 10 month basis
17) the entry is basically now and February 2592-2650
18) with price trading 2616 as I type
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.