FIRST, PLEASE REVIEW #006-11, THE PREVIOUS BEARISH OUTCOME.
Notes:
1. If you notice at all, it literally went RED 1, RED 2, RED 3, AND RED 4-1. It will continue TO HIT RED-42.
2. What this means is that:
a) despite being bullish at least 70-30 (vs all outcomes incuding sideways outcome), I cant eliminate bearish outcome
b) so don't be completely surprised if that is the outcome
c) that's why I noted in #1-3 to save half the entry for AFTER NFP, bc nothing is a sure thing
3) In this chart:
a) the bold box decides everything of course
b) this move is pretty straight forward, it is almost straight with slope close to black diagonal
c) that means I do not see anything more than a 1% retrace at any point between now and 1920, UNLESS...
d) price follows red line (this slope is too fast, any 30pt retrace is A STRONG BUY), YET STILL A hold to 1900 before taking $ off the table
e) the first vertical line is NFP, the second is CPI, the third Thursday morning is PPI
f) PPI should be sell the news type of situation.
4)There is also a SUPER ANNOYING SCENARIO THAT GOES LIKE THIS:
a) spike down to 1778 sand spike back up during NFP
b) ambivalent close at 1815 and spike sunday night (and of course even RARER crash sunday night)
c) I don't think it will do this, but never say never
5) I am roughly 80-20 long and short for this situation. Meaning I am holding a huge number August calls and puts at 1:4 call value.
6) Catch up Sunday or Monday.
Notes:
1. If you notice at all, it literally went RED 1, RED 2, RED 3, AND RED 4-1. It will continue TO HIT RED-42.
2. What this means is that:
a) despite being bullish at least 70-30 (vs all outcomes incuding sideways outcome), I cant eliminate bearish outcome
b) so don't be completely surprised if that is the outcome
c) that's why I noted in #1-3 to save half the entry for AFTER NFP, bc nothing is a sure thing
3) In this chart:
a) the bold box decides everything of course
b) this move is pretty straight forward, it is almost straight with slope close to black diagonal
c) that means I do not see anything more than a 1% retrace at any point between now and 1920, UNLESS...
d) price follows red line (this slope is too fast, any 30pt retrace is A STRONG BUY), YET STILL A hold to 1900 before taking $ off the table
e) the first vertical line is NFP, the second is CPI, the third Thursday morning is PPI
f) PPI should be sell the news type of situation.
4)There is also a SUPER ANNOYING SCENARIO THAT GOES LIKE THIS:
a) spike down to 1778 sand spike back up during NFP
b) ambivalent close at 1815 and spike sunday night (and of course even RARER crash sunday night)
c) I don't think it will do this, but never say never
5) I am roughly 80-20 long and short for this situation. Meaning I am holding a huge number August calls and puts at 1:4 call value.
6) Catch up Sunday or Monday.
Note
7)**** It can just go to 1945 next Thurs/Fri **** I just don't want to project too high and overbuild expectations. But if I'mb being straight with the numbers I would lean 1940s next Thurs or maybe Friday, as opposed to 1910-1920.Note
12:37 AM FRIDAY >>Someone asked me if it mattered that the first two tiny boxes did not hit. Yes it does for pre-NFP price action. This implies a "wider" band of possibilities from 7:15 to 7:45 AM. So prepare for some swinging. That said, for price action after 8 AM, it doesn't really matter, because odds of price breaking under 1793 is REALLY sim prior to 7:30 AM.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.