Updated

$XAU vs. $USD: Probable Interim Decline; Bulish Target | #Gold

Predictive/Forecasting Mode calling for interim retracement/reversal.

Background Geo overlay is mixed, with internal (black lettering) geo offering a possible cycle completion at its 1-4 Line per Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern (WolfeWave.com), whereas a larger (grey lettering) would comply with Predictive/Forecasting Model at foreground, yielding the following bullish target:

- TG-Hi = 1268.78 - 14 MAY 2015

In contrast to Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern, this Geo does depend upon internal Elliott Wave principles and geometry-based rules (e.g.: Tunneling, Geo-Anchor, Off-Set Rules), which are mere refinements of the Wolfe Wave using simple confirmatory methods, all of which have been freely shared and explicated at length in my TradingView.com discussion threads.

OVERALL:

A smaller Geo/WW appears to have completed. Caveat here is that its 1-4 Line would require a steep decline in price. A larger similar geometry would allow an ectopic Point-5 to salute the independent Predictive/Forecasting Model ruminating at higher pastures with tail wagging at 1268.78.

In terms of sequencing, Model expects:

1 - Price decline to/along the small 1-4 Line, then:
2 - Rallying into the TG-Hi hills.

INVALIDATION:

Adverse excursion > 1.414 above smaller Geo's Pt-5 should invalidate this sequencing.

Stay tuned,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Twittter:
4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor

TradingView.com:
4xForecaster
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Note

07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.

Note

If a correlation between the WW or Geo and the Model re-emerges, I will be pointing it out asap.
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David Alcindor

07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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: Watch for this potential geometric pace, down to 1131.98 at 1.618 #fibonacci extension:

#gold
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David Alcindor

10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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remains indecisive; Favors decline to defined level before rallying to 1201.70:

#gold
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David Alcindor

16 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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moving closer to 1.618 #fibonacci = 1131.98; Expect bullish entrenchment there:

#gold #euro
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David Alcindor

17 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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hit forecast #fibonacci extensn; Expect 5' validation with reversal to Pt-4 level per Geo's OffSet Rule

#gold
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David Alcindor

12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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continues to rally from reciprocal symmetry; Remains intent on 1201.70 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

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David Alcindor

Note

21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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stomped at 2-4 Line (grey) + Geo's Off-Set Rule at Pt-3 (blue) ; Floor at 1092.11; Still intent on 1268.78:

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David Alcindor

25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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continues to adhere to forecast: Same 1092.11 floor. Same 1268.78 target:

#gold
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David Alcindor

08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Watch out for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as price continues to follow the dashed-arrow forecast path:

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David Alcindor

11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

continued to fall as forecast; Nears 1092 support; Bullish outlook:

#gold
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David Alcindor

16 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains true to forecast pathway; bullish target also intact:

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David Alcindor

18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

continues to follow forecast path closely; Price stomped at larger Geo's 1-3 Line:

#gold #euro
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David Alcindor

24 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Still tight and up-close with forecast pathway. Now BACA > 2-4 Line:

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David Alcindor

02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Consolidation has carved a higher-low; Recent high at 1156.65 may release bulls' gate:

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David Alcindor

09 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

price action remains tethered to forecast line; Bullish outlook:

#gold #forex
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David Alcindor

14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in line with forecast, reached upper resistance; Bullish forecast remains intact and in force:

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David Alcindor
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Note

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

At this time, price validated the lower "Bullish Entrenchment". This is the level that I had expected would get validated from prior test. Consider this done.

Invalidation would come as a breach of the lowest structural low (circa point-d of the recprocal ab = cd.

Note also how this adds further credence to a probable decline in crosses and #USDollar Index, which I just posted.

David Alcindor

Note

ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

From kmk.msp who posted this complete Wolfe Wave cycle yesterday:

Excellent.

David Alcindor

Note

10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered within the forecast 1092/1082 bullish entrenchment zone - Bulls stopped bears and continue to push back:

David Alcindor

Note

18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price breached through the range, it is now validating the pre-defined reciprocal ab = cd symmetry ... Now, look for RSI patterns to reiterate and aid in signaling a rally:

David Alcindor

Note

05 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: Target Hit

This has been a long, tedious undulating price action, which finally hit the 1268.78 target defined last May 2015:

This level was finally reached, defining a high-probability reversal level, with most immediate target defined at the 11.71.08 level, approximating the 50% Fibonacci value.

Whereas higher-highs remain possible, bears are expected to come in force here. Invalidation of this expectation should occur if and once price BACA > Point-2 of the geometry.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

05 MAR 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Worth noting here is the actual geometric completion of this larger system, justifying the adverse excursion and lower-lows formed prior to price heading towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target, which stood higher than the geometry's own 1-4 Line target:

As the 1-4 Line target has been hit as well, this adds further credence to the probability of a price relaxation to the downside.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is defining a protracted consolidation pattern, slowly outlining a probable Wolfe Wave/Geo in this process.

As usual, Point-4 remains the most fluid element in the developing geometry. However, following are a series of technical hallmarks worth heeding, as their divergence focus on a narrow probable target range, with a predictive/Forecasting model pointing to 1307.61:

You will notice that this 1307.61, defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model aligns quite tightly with two 1.618-Fibonacci extensions, as illustrated in the following chart:

Additionally, but not as precisely, a large reciprocal ab = cd symmetry would complete in the same vicinity, as illustrated in the following chart:

OVERALL - As indicated in the large DAILY chart, the bearish target remains pending at 1171.08. However, an interim geometric completion remains pending as shown in the following chart, based on a probable geometric completion in the Wolfe Wave/Geo and internal ab = cd, reinforced by a Fibonacci confluence at 1.618.

What ensues is a probable price pathway, as illustrated in the following chart, where the dashed lines define the probable extent of resistance and support range that would carry price first to a geometric completion at the bullish target of 1307.61, then repel price to a support at 1171.08:

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for possible attainment of the 1370.87 handle. However, bears remain in charge overall:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

Note

30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Watch for 1370.87:

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Note

05 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:

Note

Look for significant resistance building up.

David

Note

14 DEC 2016 - - All bearish targets hit defined this past 06 OCT 2016

Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent recorded performances.

Cheers!

David Alcindor

4xForecaster

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