I would like to summarize why do I think gold is not long right now.
It's not only because of technical reasons. The gold chart is completely screwed by the weak jobs data number. I still think that powers knew the data and banks didn't allow gold to pop last Wednesday and Thursday. We got all the 3 days pop in one package on Friday. That's the best way to get everyone bullish. And when everybody is ready to go long - with the weekly swing in place - then it's time to force the market into an intermediate correction.
We are in the 5th (!) daily cycle since January without a strong correction. There was one correction ( 1304---}1200 ) but that's too thin to me. In the 5th daily cycle usually we have a 5-8 days pop and price starts a final decline into the DCL which is also a DCL.
I don't see any reason for gold to start to rally before July.
The waiting for the next FED meeting will strengthen the USD. If there is no rate hike the Brexit panic will strengthen the USD and weaken the Euro. And in the meanwhile stocks are breaking to new highs. The money will flow from PM to the stocks in June.
Did Yellen say that there is no rate hike in the summer? No. She said "US remains on track for more interest-rate hikes" . And they can only rise this summer : June or July. If we start to rally from here when everybody is bullish this rally will be weak. For a really strong rally first we need a decline below 1200 to the 200 SMA (Daily SMA)
So we are back to the old plan:
I was waiting for a pop in gold (5-7 days) and after this bounce we need a healthy correction down to the 200 SMA.
I will stick to this plan . I played the decline from 1304 to 1200. I played the pop from the DCL (1200) to 1240 . And I will play the decline to the 200 SMA.
Levels to watch on the daily chart:
I would like to see a break below the 50 and the 20 EMA. Later a break below 10 EMA .
And finally before the panic selling stage the break below 1200.
Warning:
A pop up to 1255 (red trendline) is still not off the table. But I don't want to see a break above the double top's neckline at 1263$.
It's not only because of technical reasons. The gold chart is completely screwed by the weak jobs data number. I still think that powers knew the data and banks didn't allow gold to pop last Wednesday and Thursday. We got all the 3 days pop in one package on Friday. That's the best way to get everyone bullish. And when everybody is ready to go long - with the weekly swing in place - then it's time to force the market into an intermediate correction.
We are in the 5th (!) daily cycle since January without a strong correction. There was one correction ( 1304---}1200 ) but that's too thin to me. In the 5th daily cycle usually we have a 5-8 days pop and price starts a final decline into the DCL which is also a DCL.
I don't see any reason for gold to start to rally before July.
The waiting for the next FED meeting will strengthen the USD. If there is no rate hike the Brexit panic will strengthen the USD and weaken the Euro. And in the meanwhile stocks are breaking to new highs. The money will flow from PM to the stocks in June.
Did Yellen say that there is no rate hike in the summer? No. She said "US remains on track for more interest-rate hikes" . And they can only rise this summer : June or July. If we start to rally from here when everybody is bullish this rally will be weak. For a really strong rally first we need a decline below 1200 to the 200 SMA (Daily SMA)
So we are back to the old plan:
I was waiting for a pop in gold (5-7 days) and after this bounce we need a healthy correction down to the 200 SMA.
I will stick to this plan . I played the decline from 1304 to 1200. I played the pop from the DCL (1200) to 1240 . And I will play the decline to the 200 SMA.
Levels to watch on the daily chart:
I would like to see a break below the 50 and the 20 EMA. Later a break below 10 EMA .
And finally before the panic selling stage the break below 1200.
Warning:
A pop up to 1255 (red trendline) is still not off the table. But I don't want to see a break above the double top's neckline at 1263$.
Note
Don't start to short PM, I meant precious metals in the post.:)
Note
Note
Wedge is breaking down.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.