Hi traders, I made a couple of analyses and gold went accordingly with my scenarios. However, the next 2 weeks may be brutal. Here are my thoughts why:
Future outlook is biased between long and short, naturally fundamental is better than technical.
My outlook for next week is still bullish biased. Why?
Because Friday we had a very strong rejection at 1838 and it bounced back to 1855 quickly.
What should I do then?
The market is not prepared yet to break the strong support. If the market breaks 1864, we will see 1884 resistance. When it breaks to 1864 or going to 1870. Wait for the consolidation to happen in that area, buy 1864 with a tight stop loss at 1860
What if the market does not break?
If it keeps rejecting multiple times and goes back to 1858 quickly, sell at 1862 and stop-loss at 1866.
How to determine if the market is breaking support/resistance?
Normally the sign of break is that the lower timeframe (5m/15m) keeps playing around in the area of 1860. If it quickly rejects 1862 to 1858, this means the market wanted to go down further. Look for a sign of exhaustion (loss in momentum candle) is the key.
I'm trimming down my scenarios in a very detailed and simplest manner in this journal, which helps me do better in trading. I'm sharing my trading plan and journal to you hoping that it helps as well!
Please give a like or comment below. Feedback and critics are so much well appreciated!
- We have been consolidating quite enough with a range of 1820-1864 (eliminating long wicks) on the daily chart for almost more than 2 weeks; looking at hourly price action it starts to form a rising wedge pattern
- Fundamentally with Joe Biden officially inaugurated and stimulus process accelerated, I'm speculating USD drop when the breaking news hit
- We have FOMC meeting next week to discuss interest rates and inflation; low-interest rates will boost the gold price and investors will sell denominated USD. Seeing this pandemic condition with the rising number of coronavirus despite the vaccine impact being distributed nationwide or globally, I am suspecting gold will rise
Future outlook is biased between long and short, naturally fundamental is better than technical.
My outlook for next week is still bullish biased. Why?
Because Friday we had a very strong rejection at 1838 and it bounced back to 1855 quickly.
What should I do then?
The market is not prepared yet to break the strong support. If the market breaks 1864, we will see 1884 resistance. When it breaks to 1864 or going to 1870. Wait for the consolidation to happen in that area, buy 1864 with a tight stop loss at 1860
What if the market does not break?
If it keeps rejecting multiple times and goes back to 1858 quickly, sell at 1862 and stop-loss at 1866.
How to determine if the market is breaking support/resistance?
Normally the sign of break is that the lower timeframe (5m/15m) keeps playing around in the area of 1860. If it quickly rejects 1862 to 1858, this means the market wanted to go down further. Look for a sign of exhaustion (loss in momentum candle) is the key.
I'm trimming down my scenarios in a very detailed and simplest manner in this journal, which helps me do better in trading. I'm sharing my trading plan and journal to you hoping that it helps as well!
Please give a like or comment below. Feedback and critics are so much well appreciated!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.