Published weekly, PCE cools down but does not yet support GOLD
Updated
Although PCE data shows inflation has cooled, gold prices 
XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce.
PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases.
Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended.
Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this.
Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized.
U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%.
Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%.
Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month.
Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts.
Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold.
Noteworthy data and events next week
Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI
Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance.
The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD.
The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper.
The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344
⚰️SL: 2350
⬆️TP1: 2339
⬆️TP2: 2334
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301
⚰️SL: 2295
⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311
XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce.PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases.
Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended.
Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this.
Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized.
U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%.
Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%.
Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month.
Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts.
Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold.
Noteworthy data and events next week
Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI
Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance.
The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD.
The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper.
The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344
⚰️SL: 2350
⬆️TP1: 2339
⬆️TP2: 2334
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301
⚰️SL: 2295
⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311
Note
Gold prices decreased slightly by 0.25% in the week from May 27 to 31 and extended the decline for the second consecutive week, in line with other commodities as the market became less optimistic about the possibility of the US cutting interest rates. interest rate multiple times this year due to persistently high inflation.Note
- Gold stabilized at about 2,325 USD/troy ounce (-0.28%). Silver closed at around $30.40 per troy ounce (+0.17%).Trade active
Plan SELL Running + 30pips💸Trade active
Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 50pips. Move SL to Entry🔥Trade active
Plan SELL HIT TP1 +100pips. Heading to TP2😵Note
ISM data have not been able to breathe new life into a series of poor data in the US that put pressure on the USD, and the greenback continues to weaken on a large scale due to falling yields. While orders/inventories continue to weaken, it can also be said that detailed data are not as tight as the "stagflation" speculations after a series of reports over the past few months.Note
On the daily chart time frame, gold (XAUUSD) is approaching the $2,300 support zone and forming a potential ascending price channel. The $2,300 support zone coincides with the lower boundary of the price channel and the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If gold bounces above the $2,300 support zone, the price could rally towards the $2,400 resistance, coinciding with the recent swing top.Note
- DXY retested the 105.00 resistance level and could not sustain above this level. The index fell to 104.00.- If DXY closes below the 104.00 support, the index could return to around 103.00.
- Conversely, DXY could stay in the 104.00-105.00 zone if the index remains above the 104.00 support level.
Note
🟢Treasury yields rise as investors weigh economic data➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors considered the state of the economy amid a series of key data releases.
Note
This will mark the official end to the cycle of record rapid growth that began after the Covid-19 pandemic when inflation soared. However, investors' attention seems to have turned to what happens after the ECB's June interest rate cut.Note
Inflation reached 2% one quarter later than in March.Note
According to the Fed's statement on Thursday, the hypothetical scenario in the test simulates a severe global recession, stressing the residential and commercial real estate markets.Note
🔴Gold extends decline after US Nonfarm Payrolls beats expectationsGold (XAU/USD) falls all the way back to the $2,294s on Friday after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data shows the US economy added 272K jobs in May when 185K had been expected. The result was also higher than the April figure which was revised down to 165K.
The US Bureau of Statistics (BLS) report showed a rise in Average Hourly Earnings of 4.1% YoY from a revised-up 4.0% in April, and beat estimates of 3.9%. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0%, however, when 3.9% had been forecast from 3.9% previously.
Note
🔻Gold price deflates after People’s Bank of China halts further buyingGold is trending lower at the end of the week after the news that Gold reserves at the PBoC remained unchanged at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of May, the exact same figure as at the end of April, according to official data from the PBoC on Friday.
🔻The data follows strong buying in April that saw China Gold reserves at the PBoC hit an all-time high, accounting for 4.9% of total reserves, and following 18 consecutive months of growth.
Note
The world gold market last week continuously received important data, causing prices to continuously reverse. Notably, on the last trading day of the week, the market suffered two shocks that caused prices to continuously "plunge".In just 1 day, gold lost more than 3.5%, marking the largest intraday sell-off since 2020. In the current context, most analysts believe that gold prices are likely to test this level. support 2,200 USD/ounce.
Note
🔹Bond traders are tilting dovish again, piling into wagers that would benefit from a faster pace of Fed interest rate cuts.Note
World gold prices recovered slightly at the start of the morning trading session earlier this week (June 10), after the strongest sell-off in more than 2 years last Friday. Analysts believe that the prospect of gold price increases is still bright in the long term, but the price of this precious metal may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.Note
- XAUUSD has remained in the range of 2,300-2,400 USD per troy ounce since mid-May. Price has fluctuated slightly. However, the price approached $2,400 per troy ounce but failed to test this level and fell below $2,300 per troy ounce.- If XAUUSD falls further, the price could retest the range of 2,200-2,230 USD per troy ounce.
- Conversely, XAUUSD could return to $2,310-2,335 per troy ounce if the price retraces before extending the decline.
Note
🟥Treasury yields rise as investors look to Fed meeting, inflation dataU.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and key inflation data due this week.
Note
🟢Al Jazeera correspondent: Continuing clashes between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation forces penetrating the center of the city of Rafah.Note
Labor market data reflect mixed signals, but taken together, they show a picture of a US economy in relatively healthy shape. This is something to celebrate, no matter how much people say "good news is bad news in terms of interest rates".
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