🧠 Full Technical Analysis of XAU/USD – Bearish Setup from Triangle + Double Top
🕐 Chart Timeframe: 30-Minutes
💱 Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
📆 Date: April 15, 2025
📌 1. Overall Market Context
Gold (XAU/USD) has been exhibiting a rally followed by compression. After forming a local high near 3,230, price started showing signs of indecision and exhaustion in the bullish momentum. This zone has now become a well-established resistance area where price was repeatedly rejected. This sets the stage for a potential bearish reversal.
🔍 2. Key Technical Patterns Identified
🔹 Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A classic symmetrical triangle pattern is forming as price makes lower highs and higher lows, indicating that:
Volatility is decreasing
Indecision is rising
Price is coiling up for a potential breakout
These triangles are typically continuation patterns, but when they form after failed breakouts or reversal patterns (like the double top), they can lead to strong counter-trend moves.
🔹 Double Top Pattern Inside Triangle (Bearish Signal)
Marked as Top 1 and Top 2, a clear double top has formed at the upper edge of the triangle, aligning with the horizontal resistance zone around 3,228–3,230. This is a textbook bearish reversal structure characterized by:
Two price peaks at the same level
Failing to break higher (bull trap)
Suggests selling pressure is overtaking demand
The presence of this pattern within a triangle adds confluence and increases the probability of a downside breakout.
📈 3. Support and Resistance Zones
🔺 Resistance Zone (3,228 – 3,230)
Multiple rejection wicks from this area
Important ceiling for bulls
Bears are clearly defending this level
🔻 Support Zone (3,204 – 3,206)
Price has previously bounced here, showing signs of demand
Also serves as the first major target area if price breaks the triangle to the downside
📉 4. Trading Setup Overview
✅ Entry Criteria:
Look for a confirmed breakout below the triangle support line (~3,215)
Preferably on increased volume or strong bearish candle close
Avoid early entries within triangle; wait for confirmation
❌ Stop Loss (SL):
Placed above the triangle’s upper boundary & resistance zone at 3,240.689
Gives room for noise without invalidating the bearish setup
🎯 Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3,206.111 – Just above the support line
TP2: 3,205.941 – A round number and psychological level, also aligns with historical price reaction
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R):
Approximately 1:2 or higher
Potential for scaling out: partial profits at TP1, rest held for TP2
📊 Trade Psychology & Structure
This setup reflects a market behavior shift from bullish to neutral and now leaning bearish:
The double top signals buyer exhaustion
The triangle consolidation suggests indecision but likely continuation of selling pressure post-failure at resistance
Volume and momentum indicators (not shown here) would add more confirmation—ideal for entry timing
Pro traders often wait for breakouts of such triangles post-confirmation of a reversal structure (in this case, the double top) for high-probability entries.
🧭 Suggested Trading Plan
Action Level Reason
Entry < 3,215 Bearish breakout confirmation
Stop Loss 3,240.689 Above triangle + resistance
TP1 3,206.111 First support zone
TP2 3,205.941 Key psychological level/support
🕐 Chart Timeframe: 30-Minutes
💱 Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
📆 Date: April 15, 2025
📌 1. Overall Market Context
Gold (XAU/USD) has been exhibiting a rally followed by compression. After forming a local high near 3,230, price started showing signs of indecision and exhaustion in the bullish momentum. This zone has now become a well-established resistance area where price was repeatedly rejected. This sets the stage for a potential bearish reversal.
🔍 2. Key Technical Patterns Identified
🔹 Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A classic symmetrical triangle pattern is forming as price makes lower highs and higher lows, indicating that:
Volatility is decreasing
Indecision is rising
Price is coiling up for a potential breakout
These triangles are typically continuation patterns, but when they form after failed breakouts or reversal patterns (like the double top), they can lead to strong counter-trend moves.
🔹 Double Top Pattern Inside Triangle (Bearish Signal)
Marked as Top 1 and Top 2, a clear double top has formed at the upper edge of the triangle, aligning with the horizontal resistance zone around 3,228–3,230. This is a textbook bearish reversal structure characterized by:
Two price peaks at the same level
Failing to break higher (bull trap)
Suggests selling pressure is overtaking demand
The presence of this pattern within a triangle adds confluence and increases the probability of a downside breakout.
📈 3. Support and Resistance Zones
🔺 Resistance Zone (3,228 – 3,230)
Multiple rejection wicks from this area
Important ceiling for bulls
Bears are clearly defending this level
🔻 Support Zone (3,204 – 3,206)
Price has previously bounced here, showing signs of demand
Also serves as the first major target area if price breaks the triangle to the downside
📉 4. Trading Setup Overview
✅ Entry Criteria:
Look for a confirmed breakout below the triangle support line (~3,215)
Preferably on increased volume or strong bearish candle close
Avoid early entries within triangle; wait for confirmation
❌ Stop Loss (SL):
Placed above the triangle’s upper boundary & resistance zone at 3,240.689
Gives room for noise without invalidating the bearish setup
🎯 Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3,206.111 – Just above the support line
TP2: 3,205.941 – A round number and psychological level, also aligns with historical price reaction
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R):
Approximately 1:2 or higher
Potential for scaling out: partial profits at TP1, rest held for TP2
📊 Trade Psychology & Structure
This setup reflects a market behavior shift from bullish to neutral and now leaning bearish:
The double top signals buyer exhaustion
The triangle consolidation suggests indecision but likely continuation of selling pressure post-failure at resistance
Volume and momentum indicators (not shown here) would add more confirmation—ideal for entry timing
Pro traders often wait for breakouts of such triangles post-confirmation of a reversal structure (in this case, the double top) for high-probability entries.
🧭 Suggested Trading Plan
Action Level Reason
Entry < 3,215 Bearish breakout confirmation
Stop Loss 3,240.689 Above triangle + resistance
TP1 3,206.111 First support zone
TP2 3,205.941 Key psychological level/support
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.