GOLD rally will continue amid aggressive US interest rate cuts

Updated

XAUUSD ANALYSIS AND CHART
- US rates markets fully price in a 25 basis point in June.
- The path of least resistance for gold remains higher for now.

The latest Fed commentary has led to financial markets pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. Three more rate cuts are also expected in 2024, with a high likelihood of a fourth cut. It's time for the US central bank to take action.

The US economic calendar has important releases next week, with the US inflation report on Tuesday being the most notable. The latest comments from the Federal Reserve indicate that they are satisfied with the current disinflationary trend. A significant increase in either of the year-on-year inflation figures would be needed to alter or postpone the Fed's plan for interest rate cuts.

The daily gold price chart is moving higher into new territory. Despite being overbought according to the CCI indicator, the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently risen from the previous day's closing price, making it challenging for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief period of consolidation with solid support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.

🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 11 - March 15]

Note

The gold price chart is rising to new levels. The CCI indicator suggests it is overbought, but the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently increased, making it hard for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief consolidation period with support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.

Note

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2201 - 2199⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2205

→Take Profit 1 2194
↨
→Take Profit 2 2189

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2134 - 2136⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2130

→Take Profit 1 2141
↨
→Take Profit 2 2145

Note

This week saw gold continue to push higher and make a couple of fresh record highs. The precious metal is being driven ever higher on a combination of increased rate cut expectations, Chinese demand, and safe haven buying.

Note

Note

Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly.

Note

The best data point in the CPI report?

Lower food price inflation.

At 1.0% YoY, that was the smallest increase we’ve seen since June 2021, down from a peak of 13.5% in August 2022.

Note

Positive employment data and rising CPI will make it impossible for the Fed to think about lowering the USD operating rate. Maintaining interest rates at the current high level may continue until 2024 to ensure inflation reaches the target level of 2%, instead of cutting it next June as previously forecast.

The prediction that the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates has caused investors to sell off gold. Because the cost of borrowing to invest and deposit gold is more expensive. Along with that, the world gold price has recently increased too high compared to the real base level of this asset. It is forecast that profit taking will continue in the short term.

Note

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2171 - 2169⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2175

→Take Profit 1 2164
↨
→Take Profit 2 2159

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2124 - 2126⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2120

→Take Profit 1 2131
↨
→Take Profit 2 2136

Trade active

Plan SELL + 70pips, close a part move SL to entry.🔥

Note

At the current price range, even without downward pressure from interest rate issues, gold prices can still cope with downward pressure from investors' need to take profits.

Gold price will move into accumulation mode and may remain stable at around 2,100 USD/ounce before breaking through the 2,200 USD/ounce mark by the end of the second quarter of this year.

Note

Gold prices fell sharply after US February PPI data was higher than expected, making the market increasingly concerned that inflation in the US may continue and affect interest rate cuts. Fed rates.

Note

On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible.

Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel.

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