XAU/USD – Rising Wedge Breakdown Suggests Bearish Reversal | Intraday Short Setup Targeting 3,290
Pair: Gold Spot vs US Dollar (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Technical Structure: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
Trade Type: Intraday Trend Continuation via Pattern Breakdown
Bias: Bearish
Strategy: Breakdown + Retest + Continuation
🧭 1. Macro & Market Context
Gold has been trading within a broader corrective structure after a multi-day downtrend. Price found support at the key zone around 3,290, triggering a reactive bounce. However, this bounce didn’t show strong continuation or momentum indicative of a trend reversal. Instead, the bounce became corrective in nature, suggesting the broader bearish sentiment remains dominant.
This is where we observe a Rising Wedge pattern forming — a typical setup that emerges during pullbacks within a larger bearish move. The wedge acted as a consolidation structure, trapping late buyers who expected further upside.
In this context, the wedge served as a bear flag or retracement, and its breakdown supports the idea of resumption of the dominant downtrend.
📐 2. Pattern Deep Dive: Rising Wedge (Bearish)
A Rising Wedge is a high-probability reversal formation that typically results in bearish breakdowns when it forms after a retracement rally. It is characterized by:
Converging trendlines: The upper and lower boundaries slope upward, but the upper line rises more gradually, showing slowing buying pressure.
Tight price compression: Candles become smaller and overlapping — reflecting indecision or exhaustion.
Volume often dries up: Less conviction from buyers as wedge progresses.
Breakdown: A clean move below the wedge base is the trigger.
In this chart:
Price moves up in narrowing range → check ✅
Multiple failed attempts at resistance (3,327–3,330) → check ✅
Clean breakdown below wedge → check ✅
Pullback retesting old wedge support as resistance → check ✅
These elements perfectly validate the structure.
🧠 3. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
Understanding the psychology adds depth to your trading thesis:
Early buyers (retail) entered long on the bounce from 3,290.
As price moved higher, buyers became overly optimistic, expecting a V-shaped recovery.
Institutions/smart money used the rally to distribute/sell into strength.
The wedge formation reflects this distribution phase—where buying power is absorbed and exhausted.
The breakdown is when trapped buyers panic-sell, leading to fast, clean moves.
The retest is often where new short sellers enter while trapped longs exit, causing increased downside momentum.
🗺️ 4. Key Technical Levels
Zone/Level Price Description
Resistance Area 3,327–3,330 USD Prior swing highs, top of wedge
Breakdown Zone ~3,322 USD Wedge base (support turned resistance)
Retest Zone 3,322 – 3,325 USD Ideal short entry area
Support Zone 3,290.061 USD Target zone, historical demand
Stop Loss Level 3,349.818 USD Above pattern invalidation zone
🎯 5. Trade Setup Details
Component Value
Entry Point ~3,322 (post-retest entry)
Stop Loss 3,349.818
Take Profit 3,290.061
Risk/Reward Ratio ~1:2.5+
Type Intraday Trend Continuation
Why This Setup Works:
Pattern-based entry: ✅
Trend-aligned setup: ✅
Clean SL and TP: ✅
Logical retest entry (Break → Retest → Drop): ✅
Institutional footprint (trapping + distribution): ✅
This is a high-probability trade that professional traders look for when trading Gold on intraday frames.
🔄 6. Pattern Projection Logic
Measure the height of the wedge from top to bottom (~35 points)
Project that same distance downward from the breakdown
That gives a clean target at 3,290, which also happens to be:
A former support area
A demand zone from earlier liquidity grabs
This dual confluence adds confidence to the setup.
⚖️ 7. Risk Management Tips
Never skip the stop loss — Gold is volatile and can spike hard during session overlaps (London/NY).
Position sizing should reflect the distance from entry to SL. For example:
If risking $100, and stop is 28 points away, each point should be worth ~$3.57.
Be cautious around news events (CPI, FOMC, PPI, NFP) as they create spikes that could invalidate patterns even when the direction is right.
📚 8. Conclusion
This is a textbook Rising Wedge breakdown setup in Gold on the 15-minute timeframe. The trade aligns with:
✅ Bearish macro trend
✅ Clear pattern structure
✅ Precise entry/exit logic
✅ Strong risk-reward profile
✅ Smart money trap behavior
✅ High technical confluence
This makes it a prime candidate for short setups targeting 3,290, ideal for intraday traders looking for strong pattern-based continuation plays.
Pair: Gold Spot vs US Dollar (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Technical Structure: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
Trade Type: Intraday Trend Continuation via Pattern Breakdown
Bias: Bearish
Strategy: Breakdown + Retest + Continuation
🧭 1. Macro & Market Context
Gold has been trading within a broader corrective structure after a multi-day downtrend. Price found support at the key zone around 3,290, triggering a reactive bounce. However, this bounce didn’t show strong continuation or momentum indicative of a trend reversal. Instead, the bounce became corrective in nature, suggesting the broader bearish sentiment remains dominant.
This is where we observe a Rising Wedge pattern forming — a typical setup that emerges during pullbacks within a larger bearish move. The wedge acted as a consolidation structure, trapping late buyers who expected further upside.
In this context, the wedge served as a bear flag or retracement, and its breakdown supports the idea of resumption of the dominant downtrend.
📐 2. Pattern Deep Dive: Rising Wedge (Bearish)
A Rising Wedge is a high-probability reversal formation that typically results in bearish breakdowns when it forms after a retracement rally. It is characterized by:
Converging trendlines: The upper and lower boundaries slope upward, but the upper line rises more gradually, showing slowing buying pressure.
Tight price compression: Candles become smaller and overlapping — reflecting indecision or exhaustion.
Volume often dries up: Less conviction from buyers as wedge progresses.
Breakdown: A clean move below the wedge base is the trigger.
In this chart:
Price moves up in narrowing range → check ✅
Multiple failed attempts at resistance (3,327–3,330) → check ✅
Clean breakdown below wedge → check ✅
Pullback retesting old wedge support as resistance → check ✅
These elements perfectly validate the structure.
🧠 3. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
Understanding the psychology adds depth to your trading thesis:
Early buyers (retail) entered long on the bounce from 3,290.
As price moved higher, buyers became overly optimistic, expecting a V-shaped recovery.
Institutions/smart money used the rally to distribute/sell into strength.
The wedge formation reflects this distribution phase—where buying power is absorbed and exhausted.
The breakdown is when trapped buyers panic-sell, leading to fast, clean moves.
The retest is often where new short sellers enter while trapped longs exit, causing increased downside momentum.
🗺️ 4. Key Technical Levels
Zone/Level Price Description
Resistance Area 3,327–3,330 USD Prior swing highs, top of wedge
Breakdown Zone ~3,322 USD Wedge base (support turned resistance)
Retest Zone 3,322 – 3,325 USD Ideal short entry area
Support Zone 3,290.061 USD Target zone, historical demand
Stop Loss Level 3,349.818 USD Above pattern invalidation zone
🎯 5. Trade Setup Details
Component Value
Entry Point ~3,322 (post-retest entry)
Stop Loss 3,349.818
Take Profit 3,290.061
Risk/Reward Ratio ~1:2.5+
Type Intraday Trend Continuation
Why This Setup Works:
Pattern-based entry: ✅
Trend-aligned setup: ✅
Clean SL and TP: ✅
Logical retest entry (Break → Retest → Drop): ✅
Institutional footprint (trapping + distribution): ✅
This is a high-probability trade that professional traders look for when trading Gold on intraday frames.
🔄 6. Pattern Projection Logic
Measure the height of the wedge from top to bottom (~35 points)
Project that same distance downward from the breakdown
That gives a clean target at 3,290, which also happens to be:
A former support area
A demand zone from earlier liquidity grabs
This dual confluence adds confidence to the setup.
⚖️ 7. Risk Management Tips
Never skip the stop loss — Gold is volatile and can spike hard during session overlaps (London/NY).
Position sizing should reflect the distance from entry to SL. For example:
If risking $100, and stop is 28 points away, each point should be worth ~$3.57.
Be cautious around news events (CPI, FOMC, PPI, NFP) as they create spikes that could invalidate patterns even when the direction is right.
📚 8. Conclusion
This is a textbook Rising Wedge breakdown setup in Gold on the 15-minute timeframe. The trade aligns with:
✅ Bearish macro trend
✅ Clear pattern structure
✅ Precise entry/exit logic
✅ Strong risk-reward profile
✅ Smart money trap behavior
✅ High technical confluence
This makes it a prime candidate for short setups targeting 3,290, ideal for intraday traders looking for strong pattern-based continuation plays.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.