XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – June 2–6, 2025

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“Lower High Locked In – Is Gold Ready to Retrace?”
👋 Hello traders — welcome to a new week with GoldFxMinds.

After weeks of strong bullish momentum, gold finally showed its first real sign of weakness. Price reached a weekly high of 3356 but failed to continue higher toward April’s ATH at 3500, forming a clean Lower High (LH). The weekly candle closed with a long upper wick and bearish body — a strong signal that buyers are losing steam inside the premium zone.

We now shift into a corrective posture, watching closely to see if gold wants to rebalance down into true structure zones.

🔹 Market Context & Structure
📍 Detail Status
Macro Bias Bullish (ATH = 3500, April)
Current Trend Weakening – LH formed last week
Weekly Close 3289, under EMA5
Momentum Shift First rejection after vertical rally
Structure Warning Clean LH under ATH confirms retracement probability

🔹 EMA Overview (5/21/50)
✅ EMA Stack: Bullish

⚠️ Price closed under EMA5 (~3288) = first warning

📍 EMA21 near 3076 — next key level for reaction

🛑 Below EMA21 → full retracement likely toward 3040–3038

🔹 Refined Weekly Zones (Precision-Mapped)
📍 Zone Key Levels What to Watch
🔺 Rejection Zone #1 3335 – 3348 Last week’s wick area — short-term supply, expect reaction if retested.
🔺 Inducement Zone 3368 – 3405 Unfilled FVG + internal liquidity. Valid only if HH forms.
🔹 Support Zone #1 3112 – 3098 Monthly PNL + OB. Watch for intraday bounce if price flushes.
🔹 Support Zone #2 3062 – 3040 Clean weekly OB + FVG. Strongest buy zone if retracement deepens.

🧭 Under 3040 = next macro structure at 2638 (last HL)

🔹 Weekly Game Plan
If early spike into 3335–3348 → monitor for rejection wick → possible short setup

Break of 3245 (last weekly low) → opens path toward 3110 then 3062

Entry on 3062–3040 → valid only if PA confirms (rejection wick, BOS on LTF)

Continuation long only if 3368–3405 is broken and held → target ATH (3500)

🔚 Summary:
Gold printed a Lower High last week — the first since the macro breakout. That’s a critical signal. With premium already tapped and liquidity cleared above 3300, price may now retrace into real structure, offering better long setups lower.

Let the market come to you. Don’t force buys near distribution zones. Watch the 3110 and 3062 areas — that’s where clean structure begins.

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💭 Comment below: Is this Lower High the start of June’s retracement?

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