GOLD - Houston we're going down
Updated
There was many possible trigger event for gold to break down from the flag this week :
Powel's speech, FED minutes, Trump's tweet
In the previous daily idea I posted what my expectation was in gold.
Price bounced from the 100 SMA on the daily chart .
The length of the flag was important. I said if we spend days (1-2 weeks ) of back testing the breakdown then the final ICL will be at around 1750 the top of the multi week consolidation box.
If the flag breaks down in 2-3 days then the final low will be at around 1700 as we have many many days to break the 1800-1820 level.
Today the flag finally broke down after 2 weeks of flagging. So now my expectation is a backtest of 1740-1750 . First step is a break of the previous DCL at 1862 and a close below the 100 SMA.
As we spent too long time in the flag I think the chance of the test of 1650 is low.
Sometimes early next week we are breaking 1850 and that will activate the panic selling.
1800 $ will not hold for too long : in 2 -2,5 weeks price will be testing 1750 at the 200 SMA. If we get to 1740 very fast , like early or middle of next week then the tag of 1650 is still possible.
Notice that the daily candle is a key reversal candlestick. It's turning down from an important resistance.
Powel's speech, FED minutes, Trump's tweet
In the previous daily idea I posted what my expectation was in gold.
Price bounced from the 100 SMA on the daily chart .
The length of the flag was important. I said if we spend days (1-2 weeks ) of back testing the breakdown then the final ICL will be at around 1750 the top of the multi week consolidation box.
If the flag breaks down in 2-3 days then the final low will be at around 1700 as we have many many days to break the 1800-1820 level.
Today the flag finally broke down after 2 weeks of flagging. So now my expectation is a backtest of 1740-1750 . First step is a break of the previous DCL at 1862 and a close below the 100 SMA.
As we spent too long time in the flag I think the chance of the test of 1650 is low.
Sometimes early next week we are breaking 1850 and that will activate the panic selling.
1800 $ will not hold for too long : in 2 -2,5 weeks price will be testing 1750 at the 200 SMA. If we get to 1740 very fast , like early or middle of next week then the tag of 1650 is still possible.
Notice that the daily candle is a key reversal candlestick. It's turning down from an important resistance.
Note
I will use the close above the 50 SMA to close this idea.Note
I have to tell you that they have built a fantastic bull trap.
I hope nobody bought on Friday’s fake marubozu.
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I will post an update today.If you are short stay short. If you are long well then pray because I think a panic selling is coming next week.
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I will update gold in a private idea on twitter today. The private idea will be public tomorrow when everything completed.Note
Moment of truth.I think this time we will break through to the downside.
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Houston we’re going down
100 SMA is lost.
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Bulls should be busy to build a double bottom here. Otherwise we are going to drop to 1850 in a day or two:
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I dont think it will stop before we break 1850.
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Failed.
1849 is coming.
Trade closed manually
We’ve run out of time. It might drop but holding shorts is too risky.
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We have just entered the final washout stage in the metals.A few years ago this kind of support breaks initiated the panic selling stage this time we might get or do not get the panic selling. I think 40$ To 80$ left in this drop.
Note
1750-60 is still possible in the next 10 days. Hopefully we get some panic and we can get some discounted gold from the margin called bulls below 1800.Note
Panic selling day 2.Usually lasts for two weeks Maximum.
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Price is bouncing from the the 200 SMA.I am still expecting A red daily candle by the close
Note
Most probably gold bottomed at my original target at the 200 SMA - actually it broke below it for 2 days.I’ve started to buy both silver and gold.
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