XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details
Updated
The Gold price (XAU/USD) surges to a new record high above $2,180 as yields on 10-year US bonds dip to 4.04% following the release of the US NFP data.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.9%, exceeding expectations and up from the previous 3.7%. While Nonfarm Payrolls for February surpassed projections at 275K compared to the anticipated 200K, they still fell short of the previous reading of 353K.
Expectations for inflation have cooled as Average Hourly Earnings grew slower than anticipated by market participants. Monthly wages saw a modest 0.1% increase, contrasting with the 0.6% rise in January. Investors had predicted a 0.3% growth in wage, but annual wage growth slowed to 4.3% from both expectations and the prior reading of 4.4%. January's wage growth was revised downward from 4.5%.
The combination of sluggish wage growth and a high jobless rate has intensified selling pressure on the US Dollar.
During his congressional testimony, Jerome Powell highlighted that policymakers are nearing confidence in the return of inflation to the 2% target. He acknowledged the necessity of easing the current monetary policy stance to avert an economic downturn. The rally in Gold prices suggests that investors are buoyed by Powell's slightly dovish tone, anticipating earlier rate cuts.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, this video will delve into our strategic approach to navigating the evolving market dynamics from a technical perspective.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,143.50 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,143.50 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.9%, exceeding expectations and up from the previous 3.7%. While Nonfarm Payrolls for February surpassed projections at 275K compared to the anticipated 200K, they still fell short of the previous reading of 353K.
Expectations for inflation have cooled as Average Hourly Earnings grew slower than anticipated by market participants. Monthly wages saw a modest 0.1% increase, contrasting with the 0.6% rise in January. Investors had predicted a 0.3% growth in wage, but annual wage growth slowed to 4.3% from both expectations and the prior reading of 4.4%. January's wage growth was revised downward from 4.5%.
The combination of sluggish wage growth and a high jobless rate has intensified selling pressure on the US Dollar.
During his congressional testimony, Jerome Powell highlighted that policymakers are nearing confidence in the return of inflation to the 2% target. He acknowledged the necessity of easing the current monetary policy stance to avert an economic downturn. The rally in Gold prices suggests that investors are buoyed by Powell's slightly dovish tone, anticipating earlier rate cuts.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, this video will delve into our strategic approach to navigating the evolving market dynamics from a technical perspective.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,143.50 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,143.50 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Note
The new week kicks off with Gold prices showing some oscillation within a range during the Asian session, consolidating after its recent surge. The upward trend seems to take a pause as the US Dollar's downward trend stalls, with investors eagerly awaiting high-impact CPI data from the United States for potential market direction.A notable spike in the US unemployment rate to a two-year high in February has bolstered expectations of a looming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June. This has kept US Treasury bond yields low, hindering the US Dollar's potential for recovery and providing support for gold, which typically thrives in such conditions.
On a technical standpoint, there's evident reluctance among market participants to make fresh commitments to Gold amid heavily overbought conditions in higher time frames and ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. Therefore, we'll be relying on the newly identified levels as our guiding light for today's trading activities.
Good Morning.
Trade closed: stop reached
Ahead of the release of US consumer inflation figures, some repositioning trades are exerting pressure on Gold prices, leading to a situation where our stop-loss order was triggered yesterday. Gold is currently displaying signs of decline while maintaining a consolidative trend. This could be attributed to a temporary halt in the US Dollar's downward movement, coupled with stable US Treasury bond yields. Considering these factors, it is advisable to keep our bearish bias open for potential selling opportunities today.Market participants seem to be reducing their bullish positions in anticipation of the US consumer inflation figures. These figures will influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and could provide a new direction for Gold prices. A higher-than-expected CPI report might reduce the chances of an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially strengthening the US Dollar and creating challenges for safe-haven assets.
For today's trading activities, we will rely on the current levels and structure observed on the 1-hour time frame as our guiding principles.
Good Morning
Note
#XAUUSDSTRUCTURAL UPDATE
**retest of structure needed at $2,182
Trade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Trade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Two sell positions active; it is time to secure all positions.
Trade active
Active sell positions are in place as Gold prices experienced a sharp decline in response to a US inflation report that surpassed expectations, leading to a rise in US Treasury bond yields. The US Consumer Price Index for February exceeded the anticipated 3.1% year-over-year rate, registering at 3.2%, higher than January's 3.1%. However, the market has since witnessed some buying interest but the upward momentum lacks conviction as traders await further clarity on the Fed's rate-cut path before committing to new positions. The unexpected rise in US consumer inflation has raised speculation that the Fed may maintain rates high for a longer period, potentially limiting Gold's upside. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions provide support and limit the downside of safe-haven assets like Gold.
Given this development, we will maintain protective measures on all sell positions while remaining prepared to capitalize on future market movements.
Good Morning.
Trade active
#XAUUSDSTRUCTURAL UPDATE
Trade active
#XAUUSDBuy position triggered at the break of $2,166 level; protect position now as we exercise patience to see how the market reacts to the [$2,181 - $2,170 zone] for the next course of action.
Trade closed manually
Yesterday's buy position was closed with a modest profit as selling pressure emerged within the previously identified sell zone discussed in our live session as the market awaits fresh high-impact US economic data for the next moves. The US Dollar is attempting a rebound amidst a shift towards risk aversion, while US Treasury bond yields are consolidating recent gains, limiting the upward momentum of Gold prices.Recall that last week's high US inflation data raised speculations that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, supporting higher Treasury bond yields and bolstering the US Dollar. However, market sentiment still leans towards expectations of rate cuts in June, which could temper aggressive USD bullishness. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may continue to support safe-haven assets like Gold.
Today's focus is on US macro data, including Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index, and Weekly Jobless Claims, with anticipation building for next week's FOMC policy meeting. We'll delve into these market dynamics further in our upcoming live session.
Good Morning
Trade active
#XAUUSDAs discussed during our live session; protect the buy position now
Trade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Trade closed manually
The sell position from yesterday's session yielded over 100 pips in profit as Gold faced renewed selling pressure following the release of the hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI). This spurred a rise in US Treasury bond yields and strengthened the US Dollar, as the data hinted at persistent inflation, dampening expectations for early Fed rate cuts. However, the market has turned risk-averse in the past 7 hours, keeping the US Dollar subdued as market participants await next week's Federal Reserve policy announcements.Despite recent developments, the market still anticipates Fed rate cuts in June. This, coupled with the risk-off sentiment, may have prompted some buying activity in Gold, resulting in a new higher low in the current market structure during the Asian session. We'll continue to rely on the chart structures to guide today's trading activities.
Good Morning
Trade active
#XAUUSDUPDATE
Sell position triggered; protect positions
Trade smart. Trade consciously
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.