Paper Gold ( $XAU 12h) why so bullish ?
Updated
"The majority is always wrong"
One of the core principles in technical analysis. Looking at what the crowd is thinking then engineering a counter trade. The current market sentiment right now is that a recession is coming, and one should be buying gold and hold on to it because the price is set to go higher. And so, everyone is doing that, sadly for every buyer there is a seller. Few are those that are looking to short gold right now. Today I will look at what those sellers may be looking at as a short setup.
In my last analysis (link below) I explain why I think that gold has already top a 5 waves impulsion and is now in a corrective move to retest previous resistance below (1361$)
After several weeks of trading the price made new highs, but with low volume leaving me skeptical of the move. It was a nice move of the lows (200-days EMA) but be aware of what may come. To me that type of price structure is characteristic of an ABC waves correction FLAT : B wave going above start of A wave + C wave going below start of B wave
this drawing is highly speculative and can only be taken as a guide to where the price may go and how.
It is not uncommon in a strong primary move upward to see these types of corrections.
Likewise all my indicators turned bearish
Daily bearish divergence RSI – Stochastic crossing down.
looking at smaller timeframe, the reversing pattern is complete.
1710$ if retested can be a good short entry point.
weekly exhaustion candle.
As time goes by, I will keep you updated on the evolution of the asset price, so make sure to follow me on Tradingview
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice as I’m not a financial adviser.
This is just my knowledge on what can be said and done from the chart.
Due to the volatile nature of the market, everything can change on a day to day basis.
Everyone is wise to manage their risk properly when considering any trading decision or activities.
PS: I cannot emphasize enough the risk associated with the activity of trading futures due to the imaginary nature of all paper contracts, the reason why I prefer mainly trading cryptocurrencies instead of more “traditional” assets. On the other end without total systemic collapse it can quickly become a good trade opportunity.
One of the core principles in technical analysis. Looking at what the crowd is thinking then engineering a counter trade. The current market sentiment right now is that a recession is coming, and one should be buying gold and hold on to it because the price is set to go higher. And so, everyone is doing that, sadly for every buyer there is a seller. Few are those that are looking to short gold right now. Today I will look at what those sellers may be looking at as a short setup.
In my last analysis (link below) I explain why I think that gold has already top a 5 waves impulsion and is now in a corrective move to retest previous resistance below (1361$)
After several weeks of trading the price made new highs, but with low volume leaving me skeptical of the move. It was a nice move of the lows (200-days EMA) but be aware of what may come. To me that type of price structure is characteristic of an ABC waves correction FLAT : B wave going above start of A wave + C wave going below start of B wave
this drawing is highly speculative and can only be taken as a guide to where the price may go and how.
It is not uncommon in a strong primary move upward to see these types of corrections.
Likewise all my indicators turned bearish
Daily bearish divergence RSI – Stochastic crossing down.
looking at smaller timeframe, the reversing pattern is complete.
1710$ if retested can be a good short entry point.
weekly exhaustion candle.
As time goes by, I will keep you updated on the evolution of the asset price, so make sure to follow me on Tradingview
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice as I’m not a financial adviser.
This is just my knowledge on what can be said and done from the chart.
Due to the volatile nature of the market, everything can change on a day to day basis.
Everyone is wise to manage their risk properly when considering any trading decision or activities.
PS: I cannot emphasize enough the risk associated with the activity of trading futures due to the imaginary nature of all paper contracts, the reason why I prefer mainly trading cryptocurrencies instead of more “traditional” assets. On the other end without total systemic collapse it can quickly become a good trade opportunity.
Trade active
It is now make it or break it for gold.
Further downside and It will be a full on reversal.
Wyckoff check and everything, close below supports.
Clear downtrend (lower highs and lower lows).
Note
XAU just breakout from it's previous consolidation.
Caution is needed and I will close my short trade if the price makes a new daily high.
Note
No volumes on the bulliest breakout ever !
Very suspicious.
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