Has the price of gold made its final high point in a bullish cycle, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be beginning to ease? The answer to this question cannot be a simple yes, as there are so many fundamental factors influencing gold's trend on the commodities market.
But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the end of a bullish cycle (the one that began at the start of 2024, when the price made a bullish technical break of its former all-time high at $2075 an ounce of gold) are gradually appearing, in particular bearish divergences.
1) GOLD, medium/long-term bearish technical divergences are gradually appearing
First of all, let's begin our analysis with the technical aspect for medium/long-term time horizons. The two charts below show signs that the underlying uptrend is running out of steam, with a bearish price/momentum divergence in weekly data. As for the monthly chart, it shows that the theoretical targets of bullish wave number 5 (the last bullish impulse in the Elliott wave cycle) have been made. This doesn't mean with 100% probability that the final high point has been made, but it does highlight that the bullish cycle is well matured and that less buoyant fundamentals may trigger a price breath at the current stage.
Chart showing Japanese candles in monthly gold price data (XAU/USD)
Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly gold price data (XAU/USD)
2) On the other hand, we must remain cautious, as the geopolitical situation is still very tense, and the fundamental factors influencing gold are many and varied
The fundamentals that have underpinned GOLD's fundamental uptrend are numerous and go far beyond the geopolitical framework. While geopolitics is calming down in the Middle East, it remains very complicated in Ukraine. But despite everything, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is taking bullish support away from the GOLD.
But keep in mind that other factors are at work, notably physical demand for gold in China and financial demand for gold via ETFs in particular. The latter is directly linked to interest rates, the US dollar and therefore the FED's monetary policy outlook.
Therefore, mere appeasement in the Middle East is NOT a sufficient argument for the end of GOLD's bullish cycle in fundamental terms.
3) The bullish technical signal we highlighted for you on XPT/USD
In an analysis of precious metals on June 10, we highlighted a bullish technical signal on the platinum price (XPT/USD), with an outperformance signal given against gold. This analysis can be viewed again by clicking on the link/image below.
Based on the monthly technical analysis, the platinum price is approaching the overbought zone, so don't hesitate to accompany the movement with a trailing protective stop, as sooner or later there will be a market breather.
Chart showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for platinum (XPT/USD)
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
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All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the end of a bullish cycle (the one that began at the start of 2024, when the price made a bullish technical break of its former all-time high at $2075 an ounce of gold) are gradually appearing, in particular bearish divergences.
1) GOLD, medium/long-term bearish technical divergences are gradually appearing
First of all, let's begin our analysis with the technical aspect for medium/long-term time horizons. The two charts below show signs that the underlying uptrend is running out of steam, with a bearish price/momentum divergence in weekly data. As for the monthly chart, it shows that the theoretical targets of bullish wave number 5 (the last bullish impulse in the Elliott wave cycle) have been made. This doesn't mean with 100% probability that the final high point has been made, but it does highlight that the bullish cycle is well matured and that less buoyant fundamentals may trigger a price breath at the current stage.
Chart showing Japanese candles in monthly gold price data (XAU/USD)
Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly gold price data (XAU/USD)
2) On the other hand, we must remain cautious, as the geopolitical situation is still very tense, and the fundamental factors influencing gold are many and varied
The fundamentals that have underpinned GOLD's fundamental uptrend are numerous and go far beyond the geopolitical framework. While geopolitics is calming down in the Middle East, it remains very complicated in Ukraine. But despite everything, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is taking bullish support away from the GOLD.
But keep in mind that other factors are at work, notably physical demand for gold in China and financial demand for gold via ETFs in particular. The latter is directly linked to interest rates, the US dollar and therefore the FED's monetary policy outlook.
Therefore, mere appeasement in the Middle East is NOT a sufficient argument for the end of GOLD's bullish cycle in fundamental terms.
3) The bullish technical signal we highlighted for you on XPT/USD
In an analysis of precious metals on June 10, we highlighted a bullish technical signal on the platinum price (XPT/USD), with an outperformance signal given against gold. This analysis can be viewed again by clicking on the link/image below.
Based on the monthly technical analysis, the platinum price is approaching the overbought zone, so don't hesitate to accompany the movement with a trailing protective stop, as sooner or later there will be a market breather.
Chart showing monthly Japanese candlesticks for platinum (XPT/USD)
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.