Gold Weekly Review: Thrilling Week, How Long Can Gold Price "Fly"?
This week's gold market is even more exciting than a roller coaster! It looked sluggish when it opened on Monday, but suddenly rushed to $3,365 like crazy on Wednesday. Before we could cheer enough, it gave you a "big dive" on Thursday, and on Friday it was like a drunkard in the range of 3,330-3,355. In the end, the weekly line closed up 1.91%, but the process was really frightening!
1. What happened this week?
To be honest, the current market is a "split patient" - on the one hand, Uncle Trump is going to make trouble again (the time bomb of the suspension of tariffs on July 9), and the US government debt has snowballed to $37 trillion; on the other hand, the non-agricultural data is surprisingly good, and the 147,000 new jobs directly hit the probability of a rate cut in July to 25%. This is neither up nor down, and it has made gold very difficult.
The most annoying thing is that Russia and Ukraine, which were originally in a good risk aversion mood, suddenly said that they would ease? The Iranian nuclear negotiations also joined in the fun. Can these politicians give a definite answer? We traders are almost bankrupt.
2. Technical aspect: Is gold "playing dead" or "accumulating strength"?
I get angry when I look at this technical chart! The Bollinger Bands are closing like constipation, and MACD is dawdling below the zero axis. The position of 3375 has become a "high wall", and it is suppressed when it goes up. To me, now it depends on who can't hold it back first - either break through 3376 in one fell swoop to make the bears despair, or fall below 3348 to make the bulls doubt their lives.
But to be honest, every time it falls to around 3300, there will be mysterious funds entering the market. These people are much more patient than us small investors. Now rich people are secretly buying gold ETFs, and I am afraid that the market will not fall much.
3. Institutional views: Can a consensus be reached?
• Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank is always so calm: "It's fine as long as 3250 is not broken" - it's easy to say, if it really reaches 3250, my position would have exploded long ago!
• Pepperstone analysts are optimistic, saying "pullbacks are buying opportunities" every day, but who knows where the pullback will end?
• The most ruthless is HSBC, which directly adjusted the 2025 target price to 3215. Did you see something inside that we don't know?
4. Outlook for next week: Fasten your seat belts!
Next week will definitely be exciting! The Reserve Bank of Australia will make a sample on July 8, the FOMC minutes on the 9th will collide with the tariff expiration date, and there will be initial jobless claims data on the 10th... This is going to kill us!
Personal advice:
It is best not to hold a large position at this position (3340-3375), wait for a breakthrough before chasing
If it falls below 3348, don't rush to buy the bottom, see if 3300 can hold
If you really want to buy, buy low and sell high with a small position, remember to set a stop loss! (Don't ask me how I know, it's all blood and tears)
This week's gold market is even more exciting than a roller coaster! It looked sluggish when it opened on Monday, but suddenly rushed to $3,365 like crazy on Wednesday. Before we could cheer enough, it gave you a "big dive" on Thursday, and on Friday it was like a drunkard in the range of 3,330-3,355. In the end, the weekly line closed up 1.91%, but the process was really frightening!
1. What happened this week?
To be honest, the current market is a "split patient" - on the one hand, Uncle Trump is going to make trouble again (the time bomb of the suspension of tariffs on July 9), and the US government debt has snowballed to $37 trillion; on the other hand, the non-agricultural data is surprisingly good, and the 147,000 new jobs directly hit the probability of a rate cut in July to 25%. This is neither up nor down, and it has made gold very difficult.
The most annoying thing is that Russia and Ukraine, which were originally in a good risk aversion mood, suddenly said that they would ease? The Iranian nuclear negotiations also joined in the fun. Can these politicians give a definite answer? We traders are almost bankrupt.
2. Technical aspect: Is gold "playing dead" or "accumulating strength"?
I get angry when I look at this technical chart! The Bollinger Bands are closing like constipation, and MACD is dawdling below the zero axis. The position of 3375 has become a "high wall", and it is suppressed when it goes up. To me, now it depends on who can't hold it back first - either break through 3376 in one fell swoop to make the bears despair, or fall below 3348 to make the bulls doubt their lives.
But to be honest, every time it falls to around 3300, there will be mysterious funds entering the market. These people are much more patient than us small investors. Now rich people are secretly buying gold ETFs, and I am afraid that the market will not fall much.
3. Institutional views: Can a consensus be reached?
• Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank is always so calm: "It's fine as long as 3250 is not broken" - it's easy to say, if it really reaches 3250, my position would have exploded long ago!
• Pepperstone analysts are optimistic, saying "pullbacks are buying opportunities" every day, but who knows where the pullback will end?
• The most ruthless is HSBC, which directly adjusted the 2025 target price to 3215. Did you see something inside that we don't know?
4. Outlook for next week: Fasten your seat belts!
Next week will definitely be exciting! The Reserve Bank of Australia will make a sample on July 8, the FOMC minutes on the 9th will collide with the tariff expiration date, and there will be initial jobless claims data on the 10th... This is going to kill us!
Personal advice:
It is best not to hold a large position at this position (3340-3375), wait for a breakthrough before chasing
If it falls below 3348, don't rush to buy the bottom, see if 3300 can hold
If you really want to buy, buy low and sell high with a small position, remember to set a stop loss! (Don't ask me how I know, it's all blood and tears)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.