Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

Gold – Structural Bull Bias - One Leg Down Still Anticipated?

222
Overview:
Gold has shown renewed bullish momentum, recently testing the 3360+ zone. While the rally appears impulsive, system-based structure mapping suggests it may still be part of a broader setup — not the true breakout.

We're observing a possible ABCDE triangle structure, where price is either concluding Wave-C or initiating Wave-D. If this scenario holds, the market could revisit levels below 3044, possibly toward 2950–3000, before completing Wave-E and resuming the larger bullish move.

This aligns with a potential 3-Drive bearish trap, where current highs serve to attract buyers before a deeper liquidity move unfolds.

❗ If the 3-Drive pattern is invalidated and price sustains above 3366, the downside leg may already be complete — meaning Wave-E might be in progress.


🔍 Market Intention
Signs of liquidity hunting above 3360 hint at unfinished business by Smart Money (SM) - drawing in late buyers.
Market may be positioning to sweep lows before revealing its actual direction.



🎯 Action Zone
Anticipate rejection or weakness in the 3360–3370 resistance zone.
If a lower high confirms here → potential downside toward the 3040–2950 zone.
If price breaks and holds above 3366 impulsively, it may signal early Wave-E continuation.
Bullish setups become favorable below 3044, where liquidity is likely absorbed — confirmation from the system remains key before acting.

📌 System-Based Order Limits (4H–Daily Confluence)
Bias >Entry Zone >Stop Loss (SL) >Take Profit (TP)
Sell Setup >3354.33 >3364.14 >3342.15
Buy Setup >3345.86 >3336.05 >3358.04

📌 System-Based Order Limits (Daily–Weekly–Monthly Confluence)
Levels derived based on structured order-flow logic. Not financial advice. Use them as context for anticipation and invalidation.

🔹 Daily Order Limits
Bias Entry Level Stop Loss (SL) Take Profit (TP)
Buy 3350.95 3281.20 3399.82
Sell 3302.39 3372.14 3253.52

🔸 Weekly Order Limits
Bias Entry Level Stop Loss (SL) Take Profit (TP)
Buy 3335.02 3192.49 3434.89
Sell 3235.80 3378.33 3135.93

🔻 Monthly Order Limits
Bias Entry Level Stop Loss (SL) Take Profit (TP)
Buy 3374.47 3097.33 3568.65
Sell 3181.54 3458.68 2987.36

🔁 How to Use This Information
Anticipation Zones: These are not "trade calls" — rather, they’re zones of interest where Smart Money might act.
Cross-Validation: Look for price reactions around these levels aligned with structure, volume, and bias thresholds.
Invalidation Clarity: If price breaks and holds above/below the SL levels, reassess the current wave position or pattern unfolding.

🧠 Final Insight
Including these order levels allows traders to:
Frame entries based on their preferred timeframes
See how short-term setups may align or contradict macro levels
Plan decisions more systematically, reducing emotional entries

🧠 Decision Framework
Instead of reacting emotionally, allow structure to lead the logic.
Let the market show its hand — real confirmation comes after traps are complete.
The true opportunity lies after the liquidity event, not during it.


> Timing Consideration: > When price moves past the Red, Grey, Green, and Blue dynamic levels, it signals a potential shift—prompting readiness for entry. However, action should only be taken once a Buy/Sell order signal appears and is confirmed by the next closed candle. This ensures structured execution and prevents premature entries.

💡 This scenario is structured based on system rules, not prediction. Market intent unfolds dynamically — understanding the setup allows better anticipation and discipline.


The key-level to watch for Grey, Green and Blue dynamic level for guides:
Daily TF
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Weekly TF
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Monthly TF
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As of the time writing this update – the micro cycle and key-level are relevant for watch:
2H TF
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M45 TF
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M15 TF
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Note
📢 Notice: Limited Updates During Gawai Festival

Dear Readers,

As we approach the Gawai harvest festival here in Sarawak, I’ll be away for the season's celebrations. While I may not be able to provide further hints for market shifts in real time, I’ve shared this update to guide your decision-making for the week's market range.

The confluence bias remains the key reference—allowing structured anticipation and validation at critical levels. Use it alongside system-based mapping to frame entries with discipline.

Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead! I’ll be back soon.
Note
[20250527] progress movement notes updated below, click the following for full read--->
[20250526] Gold - True Bull or Liquidity Trap This Week?
Note
📝 [20250528] Follow-Up Market Update
📌 Bias: Bear remains in control below pivot (3312). A strong breach above indicates bulls regaining momentum.

🔑 Pivot Level: 3312 → Bear/Bull flip zone.
Above 3312 = Bullish shift
Below 3312 = Bears remain intact

📊 Daily Active Limits for Monitoring:
🔴 Sell Below: 3338 | SL: 3355 | TP: 3192
🟢 Buy Above: 3297 | SL: 3279 | TP: 3442

📍 Key Price Levels & Sentiment Zones:
3308/3299 → Short-cycle directional move below pivot; watch price reaction for strength or weakness.
3326/3335 → Sentiment flip zone—if rejected below daily limit, bull exhaustion is likely.
3341/3349 → Supported price with volume—successful retest suggests higher attempts.
3325/3291 → Possible bounce range before next move.
3337 → Above this confirms bear invalidation.
3319 → Bull stealth positioning—accumulation ahead of next move.

📌 Market Dynamics:
Momentum-backed counter moves with strong volume indicate a sentiment shift.
Principle for continuation/expansion: Price must break past previous High/Low without exhaustion near key zones.

Below 3267/3264 could see bear continuation, targeting lower levels:
3254 / 3248 / 3242 / 3234 / 3227 / 3224 / 3219 / 3212 / 3198 / 3191 / 3185 / 3182 / 3178 / 3169

Near 3157–3135 = Near-Term next reaction zone
snapshot
Note
Current Monthly Candle Range Pre-close Update:

Price continues to move within the monthly-defined range, interacting with key levels:

Pivot Flip: 3301/3302 → Price behavior around this zone could influence sentiment shifts, watching reactions carefully.

Bull Strengthen: 3374.47 → Holding above this level reinforces bullish strength, with expansion potential toward 3568.65.
SL: 3097.33 | TP: 3568.65

Bear Strengthen: 3181.54 → Persistent trading below this level suggests selling pressure remains dominant, with a possible move toward 2987.36.
SL: 3458.68 | TP: 2987.36

Market intent near these levels remains fluid, with reactions providing insight into potential directional bias.

Critical PA ranging below 3053-2941 could suggest market mid-term direction.

snapshot
Trade active
[20250529 - Journal notes]

Hello, good morning. It's Thursday! It seems like the market is favoring patience.

Patience rewards those who stay smart, independent, and open-minded. Monday's trade idea up to yesterday’s anticipation is now showing strong growth, promising yield, and perhaps soon, the harvest will be bountiful.

For those “farmers” who value patience in cultivating “crops”, this harvest is well deserved—aligning perfectly with the Harvest Festival celebrated in Sarawak.

As for these farmers—Monday’s anticipation, Tuesday’s & Wednesday’s sell positions below 3350 & 3338 both triggered, and weekly bounce limits held true right on Wednesday, closing the drop and continuing progress below 3291.

A wise farmer understands that complacency is fatal—it’s neither time to assume nor expect because a bountiful yield needs nurturing until harvest day. Clarity is power—a wise farmer remains vigilant and nurtures “crops” with patience.

Any signs of pests or disease require a specific response—beautiful crops are never an assurance of a bountiful harvest until the time comes. Stay vigilant and mindful of progress.

My “crop” journal is well documented here—let me know your thoughts. If you are another farmer out there, it would be great to connect.

Full read of my journal here →
[20250526] Gold - True Bull or Liquidity Trap This Week?
Note
"Farm" snapshot --->
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