GOLD will have unexpected fluctuations

Updated

XAUUSD delivered immediately increased for the second consecutive trading day, gold price once reached 2,320 USD/ounce. Today (Wednesday), the market will receive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US CPI data, which is expected to explode the market.

The latest big news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. An Israeli official said Israel had received Hamas's response to the ceasefire proposal through relevant mediators, but believed that Hamas had revised "all the fundamental content" of the proposal and Change the content of this proposal.
The proposal outline was previously announced by US President Biden. Israel took this to mean that Hamas had rejected the ceasefire proposal. This news has helped gold attract some safe-haven buying activities, pushing gold prices higher in the context that the Dollar is still stronger.

U.S. CPI Data and Federal Reserve Decisions Coming Soon
US May CPI data will be released a few hours before the Fed's decision. If inflation stays stable, that could allow the dollar to start to gain traction first. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely be asked about the data at a post-FOMC press conference.

On Wednesday, the United States will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
US monthly CPI growth in May is expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.1%, but monthly core CPI growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%.
Additionally, US annual CPI growth in May is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, while core CPI growth is expected to decline from 3.6% to 3.5%.

On Thursday, the FOMC will release its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.
Given policymakers' stance of "higher interest rates for longer," the market is almost certain that the FOMC will not act at this week's meeting. So the focus will be on the post-meeting statement and the new interest rate forecast.
In March this year, the Fed's Interest Rate Dotplot showed that policymakers predicted that the policy rate would be cut by a total of 75 basis points in 2024. An upward revision is possible. That's because most policymakers say they are in no hurry to start reducing borrowing costs.
According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year is nearly 55%.

Today is a very important trading day because it is directional from big data such as CPI and FOMC events, first gold and dollar will be affected by CPI data and then FOMC.
If CPI data is better, this will boost the US Dollar but then if the FOMC shows the prospect of a rate cut then this will boost gold prices.
A rather complicated trading day with two major events in the geopolitical context showing signs of supporting gold prices.
Short comments will be sent to you as data and events are released, hopefully in time with your trading timing.

GOLD recovers, but technical conditions lean bearish

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold has recovered to above its original price of 2,300 USD, but it is temporarily limited as it has not yet reached the target level at the technical point of 2,324 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's publication.

However, the overall technical chart still shows a bearish picture with all the conditions from the main trend highlighted by the price channel and the main resistance from the confluence area of the upper edge. price channel, 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21.
In case gold falls below the original price of 2,300 USD, the recovery cycle has generally ended with the target price reduction then being around 2,286 - 2,272 USD.

As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,305 – 2,300 – 2,286USD
Resistance: 2,324USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339

⚰️SL: 2345

⬆️TP1: 2334
⬆️TP2: 2329

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269

⚰️SL: 2263

⬆️TP1: 2274
⬆️TP2: 2279

Note

Experts forecast that CPI will increase 0.1% compared to April and 3.4% compared to the same period last year. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% over the same period. Although these numbers are not much, by April, we still see the possibility of inflation being higher than the Fed's 2% target. However, some economists think that key components such as insurance costs and core services will find detectability at least moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

Note

XAUUSD touched the support level of 2290 and then recovered to 2310 with a gradual upward trend. XAUUSD's first resistance line is formed at 2330, and if this initial resistance is overcome, XAUUSD will be able to increase further towards 2350. Conversely, if XAUUSD returns to test the support level of 2290 , gold price may decrease towards 2260.

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Note

GOLD limits recovery, after CPI, FOMC and Powell's statement

Note

THE US FEDERAL RESERVE'S ECONOMIC FORECASTS SHOCK GOLD TRADERS

Yesterday, Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve issued its economic forecasts for the coming years, and in this context, US interest expectations were adjusted to only one cut this year, and US inflation expectations were also revised during this year and next, and these new expectations had a negative impact on gold’s movements.

Note

🟢US unemployment claims data is negative for the second week in a row!

Data issued by the US Labor Office on Thursday showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country increased to about 242 thousand applications during the past week ending on June 7, which was higher than market expectations, which indicated that applications for unemployment benefits would rise to 225 thousand applications. The previous reading of US unemployment claims recorded 229 thousand applications.

Note

Will persistently improving inflation data be enough for the Fed to begin a easing cycle that benefits markets?

- The US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in May, with the producer price index falling 0.2% MoM after a steady increase of 0.5% in April. Core PPI MoM also announced lower at 0.0%. (expected 0.3%, previously 0.5%)

Note

Gold prices increased when new data on the US economy increased the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in September this year.

The University of Michigan's consumer survey report showed that the consumer confidence index in June decreased to 65.6 points, down from 69.1 points in May and much lower than the forecast of 71. 5 points given by economic experts in a survey by Dow Jones news agency.

Note

On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken.

The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend.

As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term.

A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.

Note

As expected, the Fed agreed to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their latest forecast suggests just one rate cut before the end of the year, instead of three as suggested in March.

Note

XAUUSD retreated from the support zone at around $2,300 with weak momentum and consolidated just below the resistance zone at $2,350.

If it sustains above $2,325, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7. However, if it trends below the $2,300 support zone, XAUUSD could drop to the support level. next psychological aid.

Note

At a press conference held on Monday, the European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, noted that in the event of sharp fluctuations in the euro's movements in the forex market, this will have an impact on the ECB's monetary policy decision.

Note

Gold prices fell on Monday (June 17), influenced by rising US bond yields, while investors waited for more US economic data and comments from Reserve officials. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week will have more signals about the outlook for monetary policy.

Note

➡️The dollar continues to be under pressure due to negative economic data

At the same time, the dollar was subjected to some pressure due to negative economic data, which raised concerns about the economic conditions within the United States, as the United States Census Bureau on Tuesday issued US retail sales data for the month of May, which was negative and below market expectations.

Note

🟢It is too early to say whether inflation is falling to 2%.
🟢It is appropriate for the US central bank to remain patient regarding monetary policy decisions.
🟢I have realistic optimism about economics and politics.

Note

➡️THE PERFORMANCE OF THE US DOLLAR NOW

During global market trading on Wednesday, the US dollar index (which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six other foreign currencies) witnessed a decline of 0.08% and reached the level of 105.165 points, affected by several factors

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