✅Macro Factors Supporting Gold Bulls:
🔶Escalating Trade Tensions: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has explicitly stated that he will not extend the reciprocal tariff suspension set to expire on July 9. He also threatened to impose 30%–35% tariffs on countries including Japan, significantly increasing global trade uncertainty.
🔶Rising Geopolitical Risks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified again in the Zaporizhzhia region. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear facility activities are triggering concerns over potential U.S. military strikes. These factors continue to drive up geopolitical risk premiums, supporting gold as a safe haven.
🔶Fiscal and Monetary Policies Favor Gold: The U.S. Senate recently passed a significantly larger tax cut bill, projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade. This may further erode confidence in the U.S. dollar’s long-term creditworthiness, making gold more attractive as a store of value. Meanwhile, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in September, possibly twice this year, reinforcing the outlook for lower real interest rates and boosting gold’s appeal.
✅Key Technical Levels:
🔴Resistance Levels: $3344–$3347 is the immediate resistance area. A firm breakout above this zone could lead to further gains toward $3358, and potentially open up room for an extension to $3374.
🟢Support Levels: Initial support lies at $3315–$3310, while strong support is found at $3302–$3300. A break below this zone may trigger a further decline toward $3289.
🟠Consolidation Range Reference: During the European session, gold is expected to maintain a mildly bullish consolidation pattern, with a key trading range of $3310–$3358. Overall bias remains to the upside, but caution is advised near major resistance.
✅Trading Strategy Recommendations:
🔰If gold holds above $3335 and breaks out with volume above the $3344 resistance, consider entering light long positions, targeting $3358, with a potential extension to $3374. A suggested stop-loss is below $3325.
🔰If the price pulls back from the $3344 resistance, watch the $3315–$3310 support area for potential buying opportunities on a rebound. Place stops below $3300.
🔰If $3300 support is broken, short-term long positions should be exited, and traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and observe.
✅Key Short-Term Drivers:
🔷Whether gold can break above the $3344 technical resistance level.
🔷Upcoming U.S. economic data and whether it strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts.
🔷Any surprise geopolitical escalations or trade-related developments that may act as catalysts.
✅Summary of Trading Outlook:
Gold remains in a short-term upward consolidation phase. The $3350 level serves as a key pivot point between bulls and bears. Until a clear breakout occurs, it is prudent to avoid chasing highs and instead adopt a range-trading strategy, waiting for confirmed breakouts before positioning in the direction of the trend.
🔶Escalating Trade Tensions: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has explicitly stated that he will not extend the reciprocal tariff suspension set to expire on July 9. He also threatened to impose 30%–35% tariffs on countries including Japan, significantly increasing global trade uncertainty.
🔶Rising Geopolitical Risks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified again in the Zaporizhzhia region. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear facility activities are triggering concerns over potential U.S. military strikes. These factors continue to drive up geopolitical risk premiums, supporting gold as a safe haven.
🔶Fiscal and Monetary Policies Favor Gold: The U.S. Senate recently passed a significantly larger tax cut bill, projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade. This may further erode confidence in the U.S. dollar’s long-term creditworthiness, making gold more attractive as a store of value. Meanwhile, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in September, possibly twice this year, reinforcing the outlook for lower real interest rates and boosting gold’s appeal.
✅Key Technical Levels:
🔴Resistance Levels: $3344–$3347 is the immediate resistance area. A firm breakout above this zone could lead to further gains toward $3358, and potentially open up room for an extension to $3374.
🟢Support Levels: Initial support lies at $3315–$3310, while strong support is found at $3302–$3300. A break below this zone may trigger a further decline toward $3289.
🟠Consolidation Range Reference: During the European session, gold is expected to maintain a mildly bullish consolidation pattern, with a key trading range of $3310–$3358. Overall bias remains to the upside, but caution is advised near major resistance.
✅Trading Strategy Recommendations:
🔰If gold holds above $3335 and breaks out with volume above the $3344 resistance, consider entering light long positions, targeting $3358, with a potential extension to $3374. A suggested stop-loss is below $3325.
🔰If the price pulls back from the $3344 resistance, watch the $3315–$3310 support area for potential buying opportunities on a rebound. Place stops below $3300.
🔰If $3300 support is broken, short-term long positions should be exited, and traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and observe.
✅Key Short-Term Drivers:
🔷Whether gold can break above the $3344 technical resistance level.
🔷Upcoming U.S. economic data and whether it strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts.
🔷Any surprise geopolitical escalations or trade-related developments that may act as catalysts.
✅Summary of Trading Outlook:
Gold remains in a short-term upward consolidation phase. The $3350 level serves as a key pivot point between bulls and bears. Until a clear breakout occurs, it is prudent to avoid chasing highs and instead adopt a range-trading strategy, waiting for confirmed breakouts before positioning in the direction of the trend.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.