GOLD gains are limited amid a cautious market
Updated
Gold prices rose slightly on Monday amid cautious market sentiment ahead of important events, such as the FOMC announcement. XAU/USD increased by around 0.2% in early afternoon trading in New York, finding support near $2,150. The Federal Reserve will hold its March meeting and may adjust its forward guidance and economic outlook due to recent inflation concerns.
The recent CPI and PPI reports show a worrying trend: disinflation progress is slowing down and may even reverse. As a result, the Fed might take a more cautious approach by delaying the shift to looser policies and reducing the scale of future easing measures. This could result in two rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024 instead of the previously projected three cuts.
FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES
If policymakers signal a less dovish roadmap and delay the easing cycle, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise. This may pose a threat to the current rally in precious metals, especially gold, and lead to a significant downward correction. However, if the central bank maintains its previous outlook and shows confidence in reducing borrowing costs, gold may have a better chance of moving higher. Recent data on inflation risks suggests that a dovish outcome from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is less probable.
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices stabilized on Monday after a weak performance last week. The prices rebounded from support at around $2,150 and could potentially face resistance at the trendline of $2,175. If this resistance is overcome, attention will shift to the all-time high of $2,195.
If bears regain control of the market, the first technical floor to watch for a pullback is $2,150. Bulls need to defend this zone to prevent further selling pressure. Failure to do so could lead to a drop towards $2,085, with potential losses shifting focus to $2,065.
Resistance: 2162 - 2171 - 2177
Support: 2145 - 2135 - 2125
The recent CPI and PPI reports show a worrying trend: disinflation progress is slowing down and may even reverse. As a result, the Fed might take a more cautious approach by delaying the shift to looser policies and reducing the scale of future easing measures. This could result in two rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024 instead of the previously projected three cuts.
FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES
If policymakers signal a less dovish roadmap and delay the easing cycle, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise. This may pose a threat to the current rally in precious metals, especially gold, and lead to a significant downward correction. However, if the central bank maintains its previous outlook and shows confidence in reducing borrowing costs, gold may have a better chance of moving higher. Recent data on inflation risks suggests that a dovish outcome from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is less probable.
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices stabilized on Monday after a weak performance last week. The prices rebounded from support at around $2,150 and could potentially face resistance at the trendline of $2,175. If this resistance is overcome, attention will shift to the all-time high of $2,195.
If bears regain control of the market, the first technical floor to watch for a pullback is $2,150. Bulls need to defend this zone to prevent further selling pressure. Failure to do so could lead to a drop towards $2,085, with potential losses shifting focus to $2,065.
Resistance: 2162 - 2171 - 2177
Support: 2145 - 2135 - 2125
Trade active
2162 Support is down 140pips💵💵💵Note
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2178 - 2176⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2182
→Take Profit 1 2171
↨
→Take Profit 2 2166
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2134 - 2136⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2130
→Take Profit 1 2141
↨
→Take Profit 2 2146
Note
As a result of this decision, the value of the dollar compared to the yen has increased and is approaching a previous high. This has also put pressure on the euro, making it less valuable compared to the dollar. So, in essence, the dollar has become stronger against these currencies.Interestingly, the value of gold has not been affected by the stronger dollar and is still trading at a key level. As long as gold remains above this key level, it is expected to continue its positive trend.
Note
Note
If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction).Trade active
Plan SELL + 50pips, close a part move SL to entry.🔥Note
Gold prices rose after the Fed's decision and the decline in the US dollar and yields. The indication of three rate cuts this year is negatively affecting the dollar. To understand the Fed's monetary policy outlook, traders should closely follow Chairman Powell's press conference. However, today's reaction may change due to the upward revision of the long-term equilibrium rate.Note
Gold continued its bullish run after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting provided the catalyst. Bullish continuation was something highlighted in the previous gold update, as long as prices consolidated above the prior all-time high of 2146.80 – which they had.Note
After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies.Note
World gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning.Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning.
Note
📌According to technical analysis, gold prices are still in an uptrend and may reach $2,300/oz. If economic data is negative, prices may face profit-taking pressure with support levels at $2,150-2,100-2,080/oz. Trading plan: sell at $2,300 and buy at $2,150.
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