XAUUSD Daily Plan – May 21, 2025

2 127
Gold dancing on liquidity ropes – who’s pulling the strings tomorrow?” 🎭📉📈

🧠 Bias: Mixed

HTF (H4/D1): Bullish retracement inside a bearish macro leg

LTF (M15–H1): Price in premium + internal LH rejection attempt

No clear confirmation for reversal yet – NY may decide

🔵 Discount Buy Zones (for bullish continuation)
3265–3275 → First valid retracement block inside last bullish impulse

3227–3242 → Internal HL + FVG + ascending trendline confluence

3178–3192 → Strong breaker + demand zone holding structure

🔴 Premium Sell Zones (for short-term reaction/reversals)
3285–3292 → Internal LH zone reacting now, possible short-term supply

3318–3330 → Unmitigated OB + clean sweep if market expands

3362–3375 → Final liquidity target above weak high + bearish OB

🧭 Structure Context
D1 CHoCH already printed → valid for short-term retracement longs

H1 broke bullish structure → forming internal HLs

M15 just printed a BOS + premium entry active

H4 bearish swing still intact – bulls need HL above 3190 to flip narrative

📌 Intraday Focus:
Watch for confirmation rejections around 3290 and liquidity grabs above 3300. If price breaks and holds 3295–3300, next invalidation for sellers would be near 3318. If price drops below 3242, look for reaction in deeper demand.

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Trade active
🔍 MACRO OUTLOOK (D1 + H4)
🔹 Trend & Structure:
Daily (D1): Price is still in bearish macro structure, but printed a bullish FVG + OB reaction from the 3185–3200 area. It is now retracing into HTF supply (3305–3320).

H4: Clean CHoCH + BOS confirmed bullish intent short term, but price has now hit a premium and formed a lower high rejection candle just below key OB.

🔹 Key HTF Zones:
Zone Type Price Area Description
Daily Supply 3305–3320 Major HTF OB + previous rejection zone
Support Zone 3285–3290 LTF OB + FVG + equilibrium zone
Discount Demand 3255–3270 Swing HL, OB, imbalance fill

🔹 Indicators:
EMA5/21: Bearish retest forming on H1/H4, no EMA lock yet.

EMA50/200: D1 approaching EMA50 resistance; H4 has support below.

RSI: D1 near 60 (moderate bullish), but lower TFs showing divergence on highs (sign of temporary exhaustion).

🧠 LTF SNIPER FRAME (M30 to M5)
🔹 M30:
Price formed CHoCH at 3308 (weak high).

Pullback respected OB at 3285, creating a range between 3285–3305.

FVG and OB confluence at 3290–3292 zone.

🔹 M15:
M15 formed a bullish BOS above 3300, but failed to hold premium.

Price returned to equilibrium zone (3290–3295) with signs of accumulation.

EMA5 crossed EMA21 upwards again – potential micro bullish reset.

🔹 M5:
Clean BOS + HL from 3288.

Reaction from OB + FVG zone at 3291–3293, current bounce unfolding.


Confluences:
✅ HTF OB zone
✅ RSI divergence
✅ Premium pricing
✅ CHoCH confirmation required

🌍 SESSIONAL OUTLOOK
Session Expectation
Asia Accumulation phase, liquidity sweep around 3288
London Continuation push into 3305–3310
NY Decision time – either continuation into 3312 or rejection short

✅ ACTION PLAN & CONCLUSIONS
Buy Zone to Monitor:
– 3291–3293 for M5 BOS continuation long.
– Wait for bullish confirmation and candle closure above 3295.

Short Setup:
– React to 3310–3312 if hit during NY session for potential reversal.
– Watch for CHoCH on M15 and bearish RSI divergence.

Don’t chase price — let it return to R:R efficient OB or FVG zones.

⚠️ Critical Zones for Best R/R:
Zone Type R/R Potential
3291–3293 Buy Zone 1:3+
3310–3312 Sell Zone 1:2.5+

💬 What do you think — will NY flip bullish continuation or give us a premium fade?
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