XAUUSD – Poor NFP Expectations, Gold Awaits Key Market Reaction

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XAUUSD 03/07–Poor NFP Expectations,Gold Awaits Key Market Reaction

Macro Update
Today’s NFP release is anticipated to underperform, following a sharp miss in ADP employment data yesterday (-33K vs forecasted 99K).
This is also the final session ahead of the US Independence Day holiday, potentially triggering increased volatility.
Geopolitical tensions are elevated following former President Trump’s comments regarding tariffs and trade policy.

Technical Outlook
Gold declined nearly $24 in the Asian session, likely completing the 5th wave in Elliott Wave theory.
The medium-term structure remains bullish, with no decisive reversal observed.
An ascending trendline on H1 is key – a break below may trigger intraday selling setups in the European hours.

Trading Plan

Buy Entries
Entry 1: 3337 – 3339 | SL: 3333 | TP: 3346 – 3360 – 3372
Entry 2: 3319 – 3321 | SL: 3315 | TP: 3328 – 3335 – 3348 – 3360

Sell Triggers (on trendline break)
Entry 1: 3349
Entry 2: 3372 – 3374 | SL: 3378 | TP: 3360 – 3345 – 3330 – 3320
Entry 3: 3409 – 3411 | SL: 3415 | TP: 3392 – 3380 – 3360 – 3345

Summary
Gold faces pressure from both economic fundamentals and technical levels.
The upcoming NFP data could define market direction for July.
Overall strategy is to favour long positions while remaining alert for confirmed short setups.

Disclaimer

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