Long

GOLD 12 MONTH INTERMEDIATE BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING

If you need back ground for this work, the links two the previous four posts are linked to this draft. For everyone else, trend super detailing made me realize that the black trend line that held the rally from 2580 to 2955 is going to break again, TWICE. As stated previously, this would ensure that the 26-year resistance line is (dotted at top) will get hit. Furthermore, this will break the 10-20-40 year mean reversion setup and raise the floor to 2580 OR HIGHER. However, after the first break upwards past this black trend line, price will lose it again in late May. So the lost momentum will cap the high at 3850, but it's not obvious to me that it can get hit.

Long story shortened -
1) this chart is my best work out 375 days
2) it shows all the trend lines in play
3) top (dotted) line is 26-year resistance line
4) black line at bottom is 45-year support line
5) two orange lines are important lines for this pattern until late August
6) red line is $875 Jan-1980 all time high adjusted for inflation
7) like the 45-year trend line before it ...
8) PRICE WILL BE REJECTED SIX TIMES
9) all of which are shown on this chart
10) I have important highs and lows dated as accurate as possible
11) the five intermediate trades worth talking about have been marked...
12) according to value
13) so for example, first trade is long 2845 to 3345
14) so the vol is worth +500
15) second trade is long 3195 to 3745, this is worth +550
16) the low hit 2645-ish this October will be the FIRST ENTRY FOR 5000

From here to March 19th's FOMC meeting -
1) I will add notes for this soon after I post
2) beyond that, I will have a group for INTERMEDIATE continuous coverage
3) by that I mean for each section of this chart worth trading
4) once that's up and running, I will no longer update this chart

Note

Note

5.05 PM ET, 3/6, stalling in this window changes nothing...
1) dark blue favored over gray mirror image
2) but changes nothing overall
3) we still have to do 2975- 2845

Note

5.25 I am wrong, it should be this:

Note

10:10 AM ET, 2926.xx, New York time, Friday, 03-07-25, here's what we know:
1) first, blue still leading with likely shape better represented in dark blue above
2) there is more compression with the ceiling closer to 2965 and
3) conversely, THE 3-14 FLOOR IS CLOSER TO 2855
4) so AHEAD OF MONDAY 3-17, that vol zone looks closer to 110 pts
5) as opposed to 130 quoted previously
6) further more it's not that black route that I am concerned about
7) it is what I call turn transition (especially involving - and it does most of the time - an FOMC meeting)
8) so...

Note

10) continuing with chart above...
11) the signal for this move would be wrapping 2910-2915 for 7_ trading days
12) so zooming in, it would be like this:

Note

13) this sideways "wrapping" would mean STRONGLY FAVOR YELLOW OUTCOME ...
14) which also would make "3777" base case for the high:

Note

15) and why ?
16) basically this setup is a runaway rally to unsustainable momentum
17) followed by massive retrace (1000-1200 points)
18) and this up and down swing must complete by 11/20/25

Note

and here's what that looks like ...

Note

11:05 PM ET, 3/9/25, that label of 3476 is typo

1) it should be 3376
2) bc 2790+585=3375
3) so roughly 3375
4) the yellow highlight marked 3376 too, I just labeled it wrong

Note

03/10/25, 11:13 AM ET, 8-min bar immediate picture update

1) if you go up 7 charts you get to this chart I posted Friday morning:

Note

2) so right now, at 2:03 PM ET, we are at the limit of this pattern already:

Note

3) if the reversal is not immediate right now to wrap 2910-2920
4) then next step immediately is 2860 and...

Note

5) we need a back up plan now that yellow route in chart above is base case
6) and of course we need to know how much different that would look
7) so ...

Note

11:50 AM ET, NY time, 03/11/25, 2917.xx

1) so right above I wrote in note "3) if the reversal is not immediate right now to wrap 2910-2920"
2) well it did, if a few hours too slow, but yellow route was base case and now is strong base case
3) so with the limited time that I have...

Note

Note

3/11, 1:13 PM ET,
1) post above is follow up to this post
2) and also prep work for our group

Binary_Forecasting_Service

Starting 03/29/25, I forecast gold for "12 Month Basis with Super Detailing" group at: t.me/+grdj3JMbOa5kOTAx

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