Gold prices are bearish today, with a target of 3260-3280.
Event: The Trump administration plans to send tariff adjustment letters to about 12 countries by July 9. The new tariff rates are expected to take effect on August 1, ranging from 10% to 70%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson hinted that negotiations may be extended, but if no agreement is reached, the highest tariff of 24% will be restored in August.
Impact: If the negotiations fail, the intensification of global trade frictions may boost safe-haven demand, and gold prices may hit $3,400;
If the agreement is extended or partially reached, gold prices may fall back to the $3,300 support level.
As of press time, gold prices have fallen to around 3,310. The decline in gold prices fully demonstrates the uncompromising attitude of various countries towards Trump's tariff policy, and believes that Trump will eventually compromise.
Data game:
Non-farm employment in June exceeded expectations (147,000 new jobs vs. expected 110,000), and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 78% to 65%.
However, the unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (down 33,000 people) indicates that the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises is weak, which has exacerbated economic uncertainty.
Focus: Minutes of the Fed's July 10 meeting
If a hawkish signal is released (such as a delay in interest rate cuts), it may suppress the price of gold to $3,280;
If a dovish signal is released, it may boost the price of gold.
Middle East situation:
The ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Kazakhstan broke down, Israel launched an air strike on the port of Houthi armed forces in Yemen, and the conflict on the Lebanese border escalated.
If a large-scale war breaks out, the price of gold may soar to $3,400 overnight.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: If there is an unexpected solution before July 15, the price of gold may quickly fall back to $3,250.
The passage of the US "Big and Beautiful" tax cut bill will increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and long-term inflation expectations support gold.
2. Technical aspects:
Key price:
Macro fluctuation range: 3250-3370
Central support: 3310
Important support: $3300 (psychological barrier), $3280 (technical support), $3250 (June low).
Important resistance: $3320, $3350 (recent high), $3400 (historical pressure).
3. Potential emergencies and scenario simulation:
If Trump imposes high tariffs on China (e.g. 70%), it may cause panic in the global market and gold prices may rise to $3450.
(My analysis: Trump will still admit defeat. This is a person with no bottom line, full of nonsense, and untrustworthy.)
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: Israel's ground attack on Lebanon or Iran's intervention will trigger a surge in safe-haven buying.
(My analysis: Israel can do whatever it wants now, after all, it depends on the United States. Those who know the business know that the war will continue like this for a long time, and it is unlikely that a large-scale war will break out in the short term.)
Operational suggestions:
Today's gold price is viewed with a high-price short-selling mentality. I think $3,300 is difficult to maintain.
Gold prices are likely to break through 3,300 today and bottom out around 3,260-3,280.
Therefore, please pay attention to the breakthrough direction of the $3,300-3,350 range;
Short-term resistance area: $3,320-3,330-3,340 (high-altitude strategy range can be participated in during the day)
Stop loss range: $3,345-3,350
Target range: $3,380-3,360
Event: The Trump administration plans to send tariff adjustment letters to about 12 countries by July 9. The new tariff rates are expected to take effect on August 1, ranging from 10% to 70%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson hinted that negotiations may be extended, but if no agreement is reached, the highest tariff of 24% will be restored in August.
Impact: If the negotiations fail, the intensification of global trade frictions may boost safe-haven demand, and gold prices may hit $3,400;
If the agreement is extended or partially reached, gold prices may fall back to the $3,300 support level.
As of press time, gold prices have fallen to around 3,310. The decline in gold prices fully demonstrates the uncompromising attitude of various countries towards Trump's tariff policy, and believes that Trump will eventually compromise.
Data game:
Non-farm employment in June exceeded expectations (147,000 new jobs vs. expected 110,000), and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 78% to 65%.
However, the unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (down 33,000 people) indicates that the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises is weak, which has exacerbated economic uncertainty.
Focus: Minutes of the Fed's July 10 meeting
If a hawkish signal is released (such as a delay in interest rate cuts), it may suppress the price of gold to $3,280;
If a dovish signal is released, it may boost the price of gold.
Middle East situation:
The ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Kazakhstan broke down, Israel launched an air strike on the port of Houthi armed forces in Yemen, and the conflict on the Lebanese border escalated.
If a large-scale war breaks out, the price of gold may soar to $3,400 overnight.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: If there is an unexpected solution before July 15, the price of gold may quickly fall back to $3,250.
The passage of the US "Big and Beautiful" tax cut bill will increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and long-term inflation expectations support gold.
2. Technical aspects:
Key price:
Macro fluctuation range: 3250-3370
Central support: 3310
Important support: $3300 (psychological barrier), $3280 (technical support), $3250 (June low).
Important resistance: $3320, $3350 (recent high), $3400 (historical pressure).
3. Potential emergencies and scenario simulation:
If Trump imposes high tariffs on China (e.g. 70%), it may cause panic in the global market and gold prices may rise to $3450.
(My analysis: Trump will still admit defeat. This is a person with no bottom line, full of nonsense, and untrustworthy.)
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: Israel's ground attack on Lebanon or Iran's intervention will trigger a surge in safe-haven buying.
(My analysis: Israel can do whatever it wants now, after all, it depends on the United States. Those who know the business know that the war will continue like this for a long time, and it is unlikely that a large-scale war will break out in the short term.)
Operational suggestions:
Today's gold price is viewed with a high-price short-selling mentality. I think $3,300 is difficult to maintain.
Gold prices are likely to break through 3,300 today and bottom out around 3,260-3,280.
Therefore, please pay attention to the breakthrough direction of the $3,300-3,350 range;
Short-term resistance area: $3,320-3,330-3,340 (high-altitude strategy range can be participated in during the day)
Stop loss range: $3,345-3,350
Target range: $3,380-3,360
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.