Geopolitical Landscape: Gold on a Powder Keg

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Geopolitical Landscape: Gold on a Powder Keg
1.1 Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict Ignites Gold's Safe-Haven Demand
Trump claimed the U.S. had successfully destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran swiftly responded that it had evacuated the sites in advance, suffering no major losses. This incident has fueled market fears of further Middle East tensions. Iran has even vowed to target U.S. forces and citizens as legitimate objectives, launching large-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel.

Currently, the U.S. has deployed three carrier strike groups in the Middle East—the Nimitz, Carl Vinson, and Ford—forming a formidable military deterrence. Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated its missile capabilities by firing multiple rounds of ballistic missiles at Israel, including at least one armed with a cluster bomb warhead, significantly raising the threat level.

Such tense geopolitics provide strong safe-haven support for gold. Historical experience shows that gold often becomes investors' top safe-haven asset when military conflict risks emerge in the Middle East. However, the market is divided on the conflict's actual impact: while some fear escalation driving funds into gold, others hope diplomatic talks will ease tensions, potentially prompting partial capital withdrawal for wait-and-see.

On the daily chart, the green bars of the MACD indicator have shortened for three consecutive days, suggesting bearish momentum is waning. These technical signals indicate gold may be accumulating rebound energy after a period of decline. Whether a successful rebound occurs, however, depends on effectively breaking through the resistance level of $3,390/oz.

Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it helps you

XAUUSD buy@3370~3380
SL:3350
TP:3390~3400

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