Updated

THE MOST ACCURATE PRICE FORECAST IN THE WORLD #1B

HEADER - This page is the new continuous updates page for post #1, hence#1B. It is a private, not public page. You cannot search for it. It is not under my profile page. It does not show up anywhere, only exists as a related link for post #1. Since it's private, I don't know if you can "follow" it. If you can, I don't know if it will "notify" you when I add something to it. If you can make it notify you, let me know so I can show people who want that.

10/24 1:34 PM ET - I will add as soon as I can.

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1:38 PM ET - So bc this is a private page. I can't know if you guys can see it. If you can see it, please comment "I see it" in the comments. Once I get a few responses, I will start adding notes. Otherwise, it's futility.

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1:43 PM ET - Ok, so this is how it's going to work from here on out. I will make posts and label them A or B. For example: next would be #2A and then #2B. #2A would just be intro page and would NOT get constant around the clock notes. #2B would be our around the clock update page. This is so I don't get banned. I already asked if I could use a private page to do this and they OK'd it.

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1:53 PM ET - I had to get his up and running first, so let get situated:

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2:12 if does move soon, like NOW, it's going hard...

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2:19 this is only setup worth discussing now bc theres 100 minutes to NY close and PM session before midnight is usually a dud:

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a) it shouldn't happen at all
b) but it HAS A SETUP .... which when the waves are organized PERFECTLY from one or two ratios or layers, but is a disaster in other ratios
c) what I have found is that when one ratio looks perfect, even though t's only 10%
d) its occurs way more than it should.. more like 15-20%
e) so 2 ratios out of 10 are perfect looking, its odds is more like 4+/10

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f) for abonilla, at 2:34 PM ET, gray odds are rising slowly
g) but the answer is both time and price
h) for ex:

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i) for chart above:
1) again it is still an under dog
2) it has 2 routes left
3) if it makes above the skinnier red brush line ( a constantly shifting line)
4) then it is over

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5) and last gray route in play:

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3:32 there's just not a lot of value (vol or movement to make any money here:

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a) so that's 1-min bar of the 3 routes zoomed in
b) gray still under dog, but 3 pt surprise swing would kill gray immediately...
c) so it's not even worth it to watch
d) we nee more movement to get a real direction here, until then blue is still favored

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e) like watching paint dry call 3 change of directions correct and on time:

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f) but it only matters if it's a lot, all that swinging just was between 1974 and 1971.xx
g) let's move on
h) I will add later tonight when there's something more happening

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i) and completely invalidated:

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j) for reference, I might trade in 2 min bars and smaller
k) I don't edit bars smaller than 4 min and here's why:

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l) and by edit I mean edit forecasts, hi-lights, and boxes bc most of the time... and sometimes in long stretches
m) nothing happens like this from 10/2-10/6, 85 hours between a roughly 9 pts of vol:

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10/24, 6:30 PM ET, starting to look like orange now. I can't tell if it should be favored yet

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6:33 PM, Is it letting you guys know when I update it? Or do you have to check the link each time?

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7:15 PM ET
It's going to be a modified blue. Because it really should not be orange.

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7:33 PM ET. It's pretty blue.
1) I mean I see blue, I don't see orange or anything.
2) so the light blue in this chart above is from this morning (chart at top)
3) the darker blue is modified slower blue
4) the difference is just what the odds are
5) it's now 8:2 blue, 8 blue, but I don't know what the 2 should be...
6) so that's I said "pretty blue" or strong blue

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7:45 I have a pretty strong signal for this pattern. So here's the preparation for next 2 days. It's worth doing bc the pattern is strong, so it should play close to this.

a) first, the 2 faded lines aren't needed anymore, but just in case, I faded them but kept them
b) the bolded line is DEFINITELY THE IMPORTANT ONE, so important that you need 2 more running parallel under it like I have it
c) in theory, it should define all of tomorrow's price action
d) all the dotted waves mean that:
e) in all the 7 extrapolations I have, blue is winning 8.5 out of 10
f) meaning the other 6 get 1.5 out of 10
g) so no matter how price will reach the wave area,
h) regressions are showing it will follow that pattern
i) the difference being it starts the pattern SOONER THE HIGHER THE PRICE IS
j) hope that makes sense

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k) in practice, don't delete the lines early
l) just fade them or turn them off but save them
m) I almost feel like I jinx my forecasts if I take them out early
n) while I don't think jinxing is a real thing, taking them out early seems to mean that
o) you do not respect unpredictability enough
p) so that's why I started a habit of keep them longer, so I can see the shenanigans happen

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8:28 PM ET JUST STARTED THE UPDATE STRING IN THE COMMENTS.
1) reply to it with "I'm in"
2) reply to the newest comment to keep it running as one string
3) if you need update notifications, you can join that string
4) but you will also get notifications when someone joint the string too
5) so still annoying but better than nothing

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9:00 PM moving back to this morning's blue (the lighter blue now):

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a) chart above:
b) see how the red line I had is too slow?
c) that means price intends to either get faster or higher or both

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9:14 PM ET so blue now 8:2 vs field, field looks like this:

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a) I made blue in to 3 parts
b) the first part is base case
c) the second part if first route misses second leg
d) the third part if if second route misses second leg
e) the question if they don't miss what should it look like
f) that's too hard to answer right now, too many extrapolations

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9:43 PM ET same odds but 1 new route

a) so blue I made it back into one, still 8:2
b) of the 2, 1 is gray, 1 is orange

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c) not sending the update for this one bc odds didn't change and bc still working out kinks

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d) so I need to iron this notification thing, it's not working quite right
e) I gotta talk to a guy who knows
f) I need to figure this out first ....

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g) meanwhile, for next 9 hours, gray just disappeared
h) but blue; orange moved to not quite 8:2 so, but better than 7:3, so we'll say 7.5:2.5, or 3:1

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i) I need to straighten out the format
j) this is important to me bc while I don't care about TradingView rankings
k) it does matter how much attention my work gets
l) that's a wrap for tonight

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m) the way to interpret the slight rise in orange odds is:
n) it should TRY TO go orange ahead of 7 AM ET
o) but ultimately swing back blue like this:

p) goodnight

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q) I gotta clean up and get to bed, I'm still exhausted from the driving yesterday
r) so IF it moves for 1980-ish and hangs for 100 minutes...
s) it will shift the whole move up 5-7 points

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10:34 PM ET... This private posting method is probably not going to work.
a) gotta do this a different way
b) still brainstorming

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10/25 8:13 AM, here's what happened overnight vs what I had forecasted before going to bed:

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1) reviewing notes from last night before going to bed:
>> n) it should TRY TO go orange ahead of 7 AM ET
>> o) but ultimately swing back blue like ... dark blue in chart above
2) that is almost exactly what it did....
3) the only way to improve on that would be stay up over night
4) and for >> s) IF it moves for 1980... well it didn't overnight...
5) so again, proving that when Im live and watchin
6) the forecasting has been AS PERFECT AS POSSIBLE wit hours of warning ahead
7) and of, where it's most messy is when I cannot see to make forecast adjustments

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8) so we don't need orange any more
9) question is it still strong blue?
10) I stated last night, the channels should "define all of tomorrow's price action)
11) that part stil true

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12) so here is first look as it is now:

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a) in chart above light blue is blue from chart at top, I kept it bc it went through rest of week
b) blue is current blue route for rest today
c) orange is the 2nd place, but not far behind
d) right nowt it's 6.5 to 3.5 blue, roughly 2:1
e) but its CONDITIONAL for blue to maintain its favorite position
f) again that means, blue doesn't move, orange will try to break the channels and move for that trend line in the middle
g) I deleted one of the "faded" trend lines
h) but brought back the other to show the use of a "trend fan"

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i) as i was typing that it just flipped moved to 5:4:1 orange so ...
j) kind of inflection

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10/25, 9:09 AM ET

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a) in chart above there are 3 blues, 1 orange, and at the 10/27 date marker,
b) there are crossover markers from orange blue and blue to orange
c) the very light blue is the intermediate 50-day from our thesis page
d) the light blue is from chart at top, I put them up to show how blue has shifting down
e) at this moment, w/o watching continuously I have blue at 7:3 or better
f) but it's CONDITIONAL, because bulls hesitation here would make orange odds rise quickly
g) my call is blue, orange is underdog, with one more surprise in between like this:

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i) so the surprise move is:
1) start out blue
2) spike down hard to swing to orange before midnight (red)
3) and reverses to blue before Thursday morning
4) that's it for this week
5) the only thing could improve upon forecasting is how much updating or refining of in between moves
6) and I already proved that's possible, but that's dependent on how much time I have

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j) the last week of October sets up the battle for November

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k) if you were here the NFP date, I said bulls did not have bullish position...
l) they had the opportunity to regain bullish position
m) and the 1995 tag although impressive has not completed that "bullish position"
n) bulls have a strong opportunity to win back bullish position and hold it rest of November
o) that would statistically speaking, shut the door on bears comeback and
p) "lock in" an explosive 01/15-03/15/24 move maybe to 2500
q) so while it looks good for bulls now, the danger of bear comeback is first week of November
r) if bears want to "set that up" they REALLY NEED orange to win here this week
s) so basically speaking....

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t) let's comment on the spike first:

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u) so it just shifted up to blue from chart at top...
v) but between chart at top blue and current blue from the last hour,
w) it's still a coin flip bc of 2-way vol, remember it's not the spike, it's whether or not it HOLDS
v) if it holds, then we're all the way back to blue in chart at top

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y) if it holds, there is a 20% chance we go back to "LIGHT BLUE from chart top"
z) that's the original blue from post #1

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z1) back to the comment about orange route
z2) while not impossible to do, if orange loses this week whatever odds it has of a comeback gets cut in half
z3) so remember ahead of Israel moving into GAZA we were here:

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z4) I stated that bulls odds got in half... but the miracle happened and it still HASN'T SHUT THE DOOR FOR BEARS YET
z5) but if orange loses this week, it's even HARDER for bears to do it, bc it would have to be like this:

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z6) and while I put in those notes, the pop to 1986 reversed to 1977... didn't hold, didn't matter... almost shifts momentum back to orange if it drops anymore from here:

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z7) so today HAPPENS TO BE the "line in the sand" day for bears...
z8) lose today and their weak comeback odds drop 20%
z9) lose Friday and it drops another 30%

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z10) on a side note doing this private post has dropped my exposure 80%, maybe worse
z11) I figured that out by the count for post #1
z12) I got some brainstorming to do for a few days to figure out how to make this work
z13) what's the point of world class analysis when no one knows?

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z14) deleted #2 bc it was posted in private again...
z15) man annoying, just too much work to be seen

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11:04 AM ET1965.XX, orange still under dog despite hard drop
a) why?
b) again... will it hold?
c) or we in swing city until a decision
d) bc posture is bullish, bears have to prove it
e) as I was typing that I am seeing 1971.xxx again so still blue

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f) scanners show that Israel has agreed to delay again, and here's what that curve mean should it play:

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g) the darker blue is what happens if orange fails now... there's no check down that deep and bulls move to 2040...
h) but again, TODAY HAPPENS to be that day

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i) and it's: 11:11 AM ET AND 1975.XX again... all we have is indecision

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j) so that black route is the new orange bc of vol
k) just was faster with a path than hilight

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l) so then here:

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m) all the trends combined say blue is still 7:3 right here
n) midnight will be the first signal

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SO THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS #2, there will not be a 2B, we will do it some other way.

THE MOST ACCURATE PRICE FORECAST IN THE WORLD #2

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THE MOST ACCURATE PRICE FORECAST IN THE WORLD #1B

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