Short

Updated

GOLD (XAUUSD) - Last leg down, to the ground.

Potential reversal area would be between 1940 and 1960 according with my counts and patterns.
Levels to watch: 1944, 1959.
Target: around 1720

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this is the map of the whole move up from 1765:

Now, this count would ends at 1959. Above, the game could change, means that we might not are in a big corrective ABC (the yellow bigger path), but into an impulsive 5 drive waves. So above 1965 the proce could drive to 2k and above.

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OK, after varius changes I got the valid labeling in EW theory for counting this move as valid a corrective:

so, if we are in a "double three" as i think, this would be the correct labeling: WXY with inner double ABC.

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We arrived to our third entry level at 1959, lets see:

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ooooook: 1959 has worked out like a clockwork!

NOW: it looks like a 5 3 5 down (the last small wave down still missed). If it will come back up from this area, would means that we are in the big uptrend (the big wave5), otherwise, a potential formation of another motive in south direction would means that we are heading below 1800. I close the large part of my positions here and i'll wait to see what will be the next move.

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this is the outlook of the BAT pattern at 4hr:

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if this will continues below 1.618% that blue C wave is not a C but a giant wave 3 :D in that case we might see the 1700s

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outlook of the pattern:

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i'm start to considering this count as valid:

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the red count of potential 5 waves down illustrated above is NOT a VALID count. I say this cause a more precise count of the subwaves shows an imprecision on that potential wave 1, in wich we cant count regular 5 subwaves, so that not seems a valid impulse for the wave 1.
On the contrary that first leg appears like a 3 waves formation.
For this reason i'm back on the previous scenario of an ABC (3-3-5 waves formation). In effect we could have an extended flat (3-3-5 ABC) that completes at 1.618% extension of AB (a perfectly valid extended flat at the last level of completition). Red arrows show the potential completition levels of that C (last leg, that is formed internally by an impulse of 5 valid subwaves). This is the outlook on the chart:

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The next move could be a 3 waves formation in upside like this:

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The above analysis would predicts a B wave up before the real last move down (the "C"), to complete the entire upper cycle of 3 waves down:

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Updates:

light blue or yellow path would be the next move, also if judging by the inner counts i would say the yellow, so a touch at 1812 is possibile before a reload up to 1900 area.

Detailed view:

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lets see if it will play out

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ok, the above count of 5 waves down to 1812 has been invalidated, so probably the wave 5 was what I labeled as "C" in the above white path.
So this is the new potential count for the moment

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So i think that we are in a bigger "B" leg up to around 1905 that would be made by 3 drive waves (inner ABC).

This would be the A:

The B:

Now we going up to complete the inner C:

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So, trying to understand all the internal moves and predict next, what i can see now from the count of the inner legs is the possibility of a complex corrective move, cause i think now that the "C" (most of the time a complex leg) will be made by an inner 3 3 5 (first two legs A-B respectively: 335, 535) and now we are in the second series of 3 (the inner B):

that might ends around 1870-1878 area.

After that another series of 5 down to complete the inner C:

then finally last series of 3 up to 1890 - 1910 area:

This is just a speculation at the moment, but would explain all the previous internal moves of yesterday.

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The alternative count (maybe more simple) is that the inner B is already completed by a sub 335 and we are going down from 1862 another time with 5 waves heading 1830 area:

then the C:

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Well, i think that both above potential counts are not valid cause i see a failed C at 1862 and after that all 3 waves formation, so we maybe are in a contracting triangle (inner abcde inside a complex correction that could means that the next move will in downtrend:

(my.elliottwave.com/images/tutorial/fig1-47.gif)

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Well, may we have to back to our previous idea (the first one from the last week, above) of an impulse of 5 in downtrend???
(thats may be the first of a 3 drive zigzag A-B-C)

This was the original forecast:

This is the actual structure:

Now, this leg that is forming is maybe a last C down (the red path), or a wave 2 of 3 into the big wave 5. There are some clues that indicate that we may are in effect into a wave 5: for example the fact that the first big move down was beyond the last potential level of 1.618% for a C. On the contrary, still remain that first wave that looks as a 3 and not a 5 drive waves. So, now the confirmation for the impulse would be a break down of the actual 1.618% at 1821.

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this maybe the shape of the 4:

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neither the above count was correct!

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After a few failed tentatives of forecasting the inner moves (above this) this is the next one, in wich we might stay into the big wave 4 again. So we are building a complex correction (abcde) with the max high around 1882 in the C leg (that is building right now):

lets see.

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I get this hypothesis based on the internal counts from whic i see all corrective waves made by 3 inner legs that looks to me as a potential A-B of 3-3, so the next one might be a C up. So, if also this legs will be made of 3 we will see a 3 3 3 formation that cant be a regular ABC but would be a oart of a bigger 3 3 3 3 3 (an ABCDE wave 4?):

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No way, also the last forecast for an inner move was wrong, so now this 2 counts are both valid:

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May we are in a triple zigzag correction up, assuming this move as a wave 2 of the bigger 5?

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The minuscole count shows that is a realistic possibility, acording also with the relative extensions:

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This is what i see right now, a potential 3 3 5 into the relative B before the rise up for the C (into the bigger B):

fra978

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